Germany’s Social Democrats are set to finish first in this Sunday’s federal election, ending 16 years of electoral dominance by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats.
The latest polls find the CDU/CSU’s vote share is set to decline by 11 points compared to 2017, allowing Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party to open a five-point lead.
The latest constituency projection from INSA would see the SPD win 182 of the 299 constituency seats up for grabs, the highest number for the party since 1998.
Such impressive wins on an constituency level, however, will not translate into an overall majority at the Bundestag. The complications of the German electoral system mean that constituency seats are not the only seats. To allow for a more proportional form of representation, for example, German citizens get two votes this Sunday, with most of their parliamentary representatives elected not by constituency (as in the UK and the US), but by the proportional, regional, voting system.
This constituency projection from INSA, however, represents unambiguous progress by the SPD as they look to return to the centre of German politics.