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23 December 2014

Fastest US growth for 11 years spoils Osborne’s boast

The Chancellor can no longer declare that the UK is the fastest growing major economy.

By George Eaton

One of George Osborne’s favourite boasts is that the UK is “the fastest growing of any major advanced economy in the world” (as declared in the second line of his Autumn Statement). That was true at the time, with Britain growing at an annual rate of 3 per cent, but revisions today have spoilt the Chancellor’s brag.

Earlier today, the ONS downgraded year-on-year growth in the UK from 3 per cent to 2.6 per cent, leaving Britain behind Australia and the United States. Now, just to sharpen the contrast, annual US growth in Q3 has been revised up to 5 per cent: the fastest rate for 11 years and comfortably ahead of the 2.8 per cent posted by the UK over the same quarter. It’s true, of course, that the UK has suffered more than its competitors from the stagnation of the eurozone (net trade is down) but Osborne can’t make the comparison in good times and then reject it in bad times. And while US GDP is now 8.9 per cent above its pre-recession peak, the UK’s is just 2.9 per cent above. 

After this, and Labour’s blindsiding of him on spending cuts, the Chancellor would be wise to return a more humble figure in the new year. 

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