Ed Miliband speaks to supporters at Redbridge on May 1, 2014. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Labour nine points ahead in new poll of Tory marginals

The party would win all 10 of the target seats polled. 

One of the transparent calculations behind Boris Johnson's decision to return to parliament is the possibility (or even probability) that the Tories will be defeated in 2015. With nine months remaining until the general election, a new Survation poll of 13 Conservative marginals (10 Labour targets, three Lib Dem) confirms the party's unpromising position. It puts Labour on 41 per cent (up 10 points since 2010), the Tories on 31 per cent (down eight), Ukip on 17 per cent (up 14) and the Lib Dems on just 4 per cent (down 17), a swing of nine per cent to Labour since the last election. 

On a uniform swing, these figures would see Labour win all 10 of its target seats (Amber Valley, Warwickshire North, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Brighton Kemptown, Lincoln, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Cannock Case) and more than 100 Tory-held marginals nationwide. By contrast, the Lib Dems would fail to win any of their target seats (Camborne and Redruth, Truro and Falmouth, West Dorset) after a swing of four points towards the Tories. 

It's important to remember, though, that this is a snapshot, not a prediction. In October 2009, a marginals poll suggested the Tories would win a majority of 70. Just seven months later, they didn't win one at all. But thanks to the defection of Lib Dem voters to Labour and the defection of Tory voters to Ukip, the opposition is in a strong position to be the largest party. The swing achieved by Labour in the marginals (9 per cent) is greater than the national average (5.5 per cent), supporting Labour's claim that it is "winning voters where it matters". 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May is paying the price for mismanaging Boris Johnson

The Foreign Secretary's bruised ego may end up destroying Theresa May. 

And to think that Theresa May scheduled her big speech for this Friday to make sure that Conservative party conference wouldn’t be dominated by the matter of Brexit. Now, thanks to Boris Johnson, it won’t just be her conference, but Labour’s, which is overshadowed by Brexit in general and Tory in-fighting in particular. (One imagines that the Labour leadership will find a way to cope somehow.)

May is paying the price for mismanaging Johnson during her period of political hegemony after she became leader. After he was betrayed by Michael Gove and lacking any particular faction in the parliamentary party, she brought him back from the brink of political death by making him Foreign Secretary, but also used her strength and his weakness to shrink his empire.

The Foreign Office had its responsibility for negotiating Brexit hived off to the newly-created Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) and for navigating post-Brexit trade deals to the Department of International Trade. Johnson was given control of one of the great offices of state, but with no responsibility at all for the greatest foreign policy challenge since the Second World War.

Adding to his discomfort, the new Foreign Secretary was regularly the subject of jokes from the Prime Minister and cabinet colleagues. May likened him to a dog that had to be put down. Philip Hammond quipped about him during his joke-fuelled 2017 Budget. All of which gave Johnson’s allies the impression that Johnson-hunting was a licensed sport as far as Downing Street was concerned. He was then shut out of the election campaign and has continued to be a marginalised figure even as the disappointing election result forced May to involve the wider cabinet in policymaking.

His sense of exclusion from the discussions around May’s Florence speech only added to his sense of isolation. May forgot that if you aren’t going to kill, don’t wound: now, thanks to her lost majority, she can’t afford to put any of the Brexiteers out in the cold, and Johnson is once again where he wants to be: centre-stage. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.