What would Scottish independence mean for Trident?
The UK would struggle to find a new home for its nuclear weapons system.
By George Eaton Published 13 January 2012 19:25
Among other things, an independent Scotland would require the UK government to find a new home for its Trident nuclear weapons system. It's an issue that has received surprisingly little attention this week, with most commentators focusing on the economic implications of independence, but it is one of the thorniest. Almost all of the UK's nuclear submarines are stationed at the Faslane naval base on the Clyde, while the warheads and missiles are stored at Coulpor on Loch Long, but the unilateralist SNP has long pledged to remove them from Scottish waters if it wins control over defence policy (currently a reserved matter for Westminster).
Initial work has already begun on the replacement of Trident (although the final decision won't be taken until 2017) but finding a new site for the submarines and warheads would dramatically complicate the process. As Professor William Walker wrote in the Scotland on Sunday:
Although a harbour might be adapted to function like Faslane, establishing another Coulport - at a location that would meet stringent safety and logistic requirements - would be extremely difficult. Furthermore, transfer south would require huge investments to replace infrastructure built in Scotland over decades.
The only viable alternative base to Faslane is Devonport in Plymouth, where three Trafalgar-class nuclear submarines are currently stationed (they are in the process of being moved to Faslane). But this still leaves the government without a new site for its missiles and warheads.
In practice, the UK government would likely attempt to persuade Scotland to retain Trident in exchange for concessions on other issues such as the national debt, sterling and North Sea Oil. But with a significant body of political and military opinion now convinced that the costs of Trident outweigh the benefits, the case for UK nuclear disarmament would be all the stronger were Scotland to go it alone.
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30 comments
The only solution is a new British federation based on devo max for all 4 countries. They would then decide together which policies to pool, possibly defence , coastal policy etc. The oppressive dominance of Westminster and its politicians would need to go.
@Martin: I wondered how long it would take for a belicose rant about 'keeping the foreigner out'. You are clearly a victim of received wisdom, since it is Scotland which subsidises the UK, not England subsidising Scotland. More revenue is raised than is spent in Scotland. Where does this lost revenue go? It goes to fund higher public spending per capita in London (more people live in London than in Scotland) and Northern Ireland. Some simple analysis of the government's own figures will show you that you should be angry with how money is spent in England itself rather than Scotland.
@ David
unlike you, I am pro-scottish. I would like scotland to stay part of the UK, but would equally support independance.
If Scotland really does subsidise the Uk, you can be confident of winning the referendum then?
The Truth is that chancer Salmon wouldn't know what to do if he did win!
The trouble is that if Scotland 'chooses' independance, it should be just that, independance- rather than having the best of both worlds! Next you wil accuse me of having 'hard feelings' !
The only ranter is yourself - Scottish people are not foreigners - However, other countries had options to block new EU states workers, and Scotland would be a new state.
This is not a cheap swipe at scotland - The EU is a joke and Britain should pull out - that way we would restrict EU migration too, and cut unemployment.
Personally, i have been privelidged to have served and worked with Scots, who are a fine people.
But you can't have your cake and eat it (which is what the scottish have at the moment).
Yes, re Richard SM et al, if we are such a drag on the poor English and need to be subsidised, wouldn't they be better off without us? Why aren't they jumping at the chance? Must be a really charitable, philanthropic bunch.
Again this entire independence referendum issue, is just a diversionary tactic of the coalition to divert the public from cuts in welfare and means testing the sick and the disabled...
Holding a referendum next year or in twenty years, won't make a bit of difference... as things won't change one way or the other.
Part of any settlement, the UK needs to make sure that Faslane is completely dismantled lest the Scots make it available to enemies of the UK: likewise all sensitive technology needs to be stripped out of any aircraft or ships that are given over, lest it be passed on to Islamic terrorism. The Megrahi incident has not been forgotten. The cost of all this should be born by Scotland in recompense for breach of faith.
Aw, those seperatists, they're so cute! Thinking that only their opinions about the future of Scotland are valid. How about this - Scotland has 10% of the UK population so we should get to keep 10% of the nukes. Oh, aye, and we get a seat on the Security Council. And thats just for starters.
The thing for me about this debate is how painfully slow Gordon Brown then David Cameron have been to publically engage in this process. I suspect a small group of whitehall mandarins have been considering aspects like Trident, oil, defence, currency behind closed doors but the public in the wider UK are woefully under-informed about the potential impact of constitutional change in Scotland. The media should shoulder a fair degree of the blame for this to be fair.
The SNP won their first election in 2007, they published an online consultation about an independence referendum dubbed 'the National Conversation' shortly after, and have a full section of their own website dedicated to their policies on Independence. The Independent think-tank Reform Scotland has done a lot of work on the so called full fiscal autonomy model dubbed 'Devo Max' including a full breakdown of revenue and expenditure published online. If Westminster really took this all so seriously why have they waited until now to debate all the legalities of a referendum?
They are only now getting around to setting up a Commission on 'the West Lothian Question', only 13 years after devolution took place!!
Try not to be such a dick, Terence.
@David - and for anyone who wants the facts about the Scottish deficit.
You claim that "More revenue is raised than is spent in Scotland" is nonsense.
This is from the conclusion of the document produced by the Economic Office of the SNP administration that is the Scottish government. It was published a few months ago.
It compares the Scottish situation to the UK situation.
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"In 2009-10, total public sector expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the UK Government, Scottish Government and all other tiers of the public sector, plus a per capita share of debt interest payments, was £62.1 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure.
In 2009-10, total Scottish non-North Sea public sector revenue was estimated at £42.2 billion, (8.3 per cent of total UK non-North Sea revenue). Including a per capita share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £42.7 billion (8.3 per cent of UK total public sector revenue). When an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £48.1 billion (9.4 per cent of UK total public sector revenue).
In 2009-10, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £14.9 billion (13.4 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £14.4 billion (12.6 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £9.0 billion (6.8 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue.
In 2009-10, the UK as a whole ran a current budget deficit, including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, worth £107.3 billion (7.6 per cent of GDP).
In 2009-10, Scotland's estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £19.9 billion (17.8 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £19.3 billion (17.0 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £14.0 billion (10.6 per cent of GDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.
In 2009-10, the equivalent UK position including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, referred to in the UK Public Sector Accounts as 'net borrowing', was a deficit of £156.5 billion (or 11.1 per cent of GDP)."
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In case anyone has difficulty understanding the numbers in my last post, here it is in summary.
Scotland for the year ending 2010:
Revenue from taxes £42 billion
Plus oil revenue £ 6 billion
Total revenue both £48 billion
Scotland spent £62 billion
So Scotland overspent its revenue by £14 billion and had to be subsidised by England (because Wales and N.Ireland also overspend their revenues).
Source: "Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2009-2010", The Scottish Government, Edinburgh, EH1 3DG and published June 2011
It is exactly why the referendum must NOT be rushed by Cameron/Clegg. They are such idiots. People must have time to discuss such issues.
Richard,
does that mean England is running a budget surplus? They aren't you know. So, if England is also running a deficit then how do they subsidise anybody?
@Benjamin
London, the South East, and East Anglia run surpluses and they subsidise Scotland, Wales, NI, N.East, N.West, W.Mids and S.West.
The East Midland breaks-even, so neither subsidises anyone, nor requires a subsidy.
When you add it all up, the three regions that produce tax surpluses, plus the one that breaks-even are overwhelmed by the loss-making regions.
They can come south to England, I dont think anyone here would be bothered. But we should also cancel the contracts with the Scottish shipyards as well, those useless Carriers should be cancelled for a start.
A strange thing. The New Statesman is happy to parrot Osborne's propaganda on Scotland without qualification but absolutely certain that he's wrong on every other subject under the sun. And supposedly left-wing but obsessed with the pointless nuclear deterrent.
As for a compromise on Faslane, what could Westminster offer in respect of "national debt, sterling and North Sea Oil"? The oil is where it is and the border is where Tony Blair moved it to. Based on Irish experience we might conclude that the UK can do little about sterling one way or the other. That leaves the debt. In April 2010 Putin claimed that Russia was paying Ukraine $40-45 billion over a decade for basing rights at Sevastopol. Whether Vlad was right or not - and I'd go for "gross exagerration" at best - it's a number to be starting with for a ten-year lease. That would just about cover the lifetime of the current Trident submarines.
It really is time I reconsidered that iPad subscription to the NS.
What is this garbage?
I will wait in eager anticipation for the moment when someone can demonstrate a precedent for a newly independent country being forced to pay it's former partner/master (call it what you will) to remove their military forces and equipment.
What precisely are the 'New Union' going to do to enforce this? Not give back the oil, 90% of which resides in Scotland? Refuse to move the subs while Scotland cuts the power and blockages the roads?
The 'New Union' would, presumably, hope to retain it's position at the top table of the UN and other international bodies. Pray tell, how will it ensure that if it plans to behave like a 21st century tinpot dictatorship?
Yet more gutter journalism allowed to find it's way into the NS' content; unsubstantiated, unprecedented garbage. Is this all we can come up with to defend the Union? Blatant propoganda? Is there really no good reason to be found.
A lady on QT put it succintly enough when Paddy Ashdown tried to explain why we were stronger together - "but why?" she asked. And no one had an answer.
And as for you RangerRab, what kind of pathetic intellect harbours the belief that the Scottish economy is based on a few thousand defence jobs, shortbread and bagpipes. Good God! No doubt you do the sweeping up in the shortbread factory?
It is time for these two countries to reclaim their individual statehood and master their own destinies. Both will continue to be prosperous. Even if the relative prosperity of either moves a little north or a little south, neither will sink beneath the waves.
@Richard: you are trying to present estimates as facts. Perhaps you ought to consult the dictionary.
@Martin L: as a Scot, I am hardly anti-Scottish. But it was nice of you to try to put words in my mouth. You clearly don't even understand your own argument, never mind mine.
the much needed defence jobs which would be lost as a result of Scottish Indepence would be replaced by new one in the bagpipe manufacturing & shortbread industries. Wee Eck Salmond has all this thought out ye know.....
Concessions over our own natural resources, big of you.
The only 'negotiations' will be over the oil/gas in the North Sea, I believe its currently 90% of the oil fields in Scottish waters while 70% of the gas fields are in English waters, the new fields in the Moray Firth and round into the North West would not form any part of the negotiations. Of far more importance are the Crown Estates with the renewables developments under way and again the only area for negotiations would be in the areas where our borders overlap, again none of this is a bargaining chip for a former UK government, although they seem to be under the impression that if you say something enough times that makes it so.
So we're left with debt for Trident........Scotland will happily take its GDP share of the debt, or population based debt, from all reports their about the same, that is right and proper.
As for Trident........I would give England a three to five year grace period after independence where they can rent Faslane while they construct an alternative wherever they like as long as its in England
Ellie - and all of the lost defence jobs in Scotland as a result of Indepence- how do you plan to replace them ?
Where I live in the West of Scotland would face devastation - that's why the SNP aren't popular here.
Does anyone claiming that Scotland needs to be subsidised, honestly think that is a good argument for the union ??
If true, then surely the Scots would be far better off controlling their own economy and sorting out the mess.
@RangerRab: Right. If Scotland were independent shipbuilding on the Clyde would collapse. It would go from being the world's largest to employing maybe 4,000 people directly. Oh, hang on, too late. That's already happened. And it's still going on as BAE announced more job losses only a few weeks back. As for Trident, that supports a couple of thousand jobs at most according to the STUC, a number easily replaceable supporting Scottish defence forces.
Angus - 'Scottish defence forces' come on. What's this? the 21st century tartan dad's army ? you're quite prepared to sacrifice thousands upon thousands of defence jobs and replace them with (wait for it) 'scottish defence forces'.
You cannot be serious. Please come into the real world.
There would be a very, very high price to pay for Independence. You & the SNP cannot & won't admit it
I live in the West of Scotland and the SNP are very popular around here. You obviously missed the programme on the popularity of bagpipes on BBC Alba tonight, McCallums of Kilmarnock are doing a roaring trade in exports.
Once the Scottish government are obliged to go independent they're not in a very strong bargaining position. UK government could have a lease for a nominal amount. What's the current rate for agricultural land? Scotland may demand the Navy leaves, but it's a similar situation to USA and Cuba, where Cuba has asked USA to leave Guantanamo Bay but they won't. What is Scotland going to do? Send the bailiffs in? There's nothing they can do, especially if they're going to be relying on the £pound as currency together with the Bank of England. And it will seem like hypocrisy on the part of the SNP if they demand a high rent in order to balance their books, after having claimed they're against nuclear weapons on moral grounds. Just where are their principles in that scenario?
The UK might also consider what Orkney and Shetland have to offer as they seem to be against leaving the UK. It's a deep water location. Better to pay Orkney/Shetland than Scotland. And of course if Orkney/Shetland opt out of Scottish independence, most of the oil comes with them. There's a deal of some sort in there somewhere. USA uses Diego Garcia, so remote islands aren't out the question.
There may also be some small redundant ports around the English coast as well which could be developed or put to use. They may require some dredging, but it's not difficult. The MoD probably have a few locations in mind already. It's simply a matter of how long it takes to construct, but once a decision has been taken then two, three or even four years and it would be ready.
There are other cooperation possibilities as well. Spending cuts has already planted the idea of further defence collaboration with other countries, either within the EU, or with USA, who already do a lot of work on our equipment. This hasn't come out of the blue; it's been known for some time. Everyone is just waiting on the outcome of the referendum, which illustrates Cameron's point: the uncertainty affects big investment decisions - both ways!
.
@RangerRab: Scotland is paying around £3.2 billion a year for defence this year. That's as much as Ireland and Denmark combined. That kind of money, or even part of it, buys a lot of defence. To be more precise, Denmark's defence forces - excluding the (sorry, no Tartan but they probably have nice sweaters) "Dad's Army" Home Guard - have around 18,000 military and 6,000 civilian employees. On top of that there's a substantial set of defence industries in Denmark, from shipyards to electronics (much like Scotland really). This is paid for by a budget of about £2.4 billion a year, 75% of what Scotland "spends" today.
So maybe if you'd stop waving the Union Flag a bit and take the time look at how other countries of a similar population and wealth to Scotland handled their defence you'd save yourself from having to ask silly questions.
If scotland wants independance, let them. We can treat them as a new member of the EU and block them working here, for say 10 years, or only let you in with specialist work permits - the main concern is that independance or no - Scotland must pay its way - The Barnett formula is a disgrace to English tax payers - where my area receives over £2k a head less funding evey year.
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