Cameron's Europe bounce continues

New poll shows that Cameron's EU stance has significantly improved his leadership ratings.

David Cameron's run of good fortune shows no sign of ending. Today's YouGov poll confirms the Tories' two-point lead over Labour and reveals that Cameron's stance on the EU has significantly improved perceptions of his leadership. The percentage of people who agree that he "sticks to what he believes in" has risen by 13 points to 39 per cent, the number who view as "decisive" by nine points to 29 per cent, and the number who view him as "strong" by five points to 24 per cent. Since such metrics are often the best long-term predictor of the result of the next election, this is a worrying development for Labour and Ed Miliband. As I've noted before, while Labour led the Tories under Neil Kinnock, Kinnock was never rated above John Major as a potential prime minister.

Few voters know or understand what Cameron has done but, in politics, perception is everything. A series of front pages comparing him to Churchill and hailing his "bulldog spirt" were always likely to improve his ratings at the expense of Miliband's. A week ago, it was Cameron's leadership under pressure but, as yesterday's PMQs demonstrated, the roles have now reversed. Yesterday's defeat was all the more damaging for Miliband since it was the final PMQs of the year. He won't get a chance to avenge that loss and raise Labour MPs' morale until 11 January.

Fortunately for Miliband, today's Feltham by-election should be a shoo-in for Labour (the only poll conducted put Labour 22 points ahead of the Tories) but it will take more than that to reassure the gnawing doubts many have about his leadership.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Commons Confidential: Dave's picnic with Dacre

Revenge is a dish best served cold from a wicker hamper.

Sulking David Cameron can’t forgive the Daily Mail editor, Paul Dacre, for his role in his downfall. The unrelenting hostility of the self-appointed voice of Middle England to the Remain cause felt pivotal to the defeat. So, what a glorious coincidence it was that they found themselves picnicking a couple of motors apart before England beat Scotland at Twickenham. My snout recalled Cameron studiously peering in the opposite direction. On Dacre’s face was the smile of an assassin. Revenge is a dish best served cold from a wicker hamper.

The good news is that since Jeremy Corbyn let Theresa May off the Budget hook at Prime Minister’s Questions, most of his MPs no longer hate him. The bad news is that many now openly express their pity. It is whispered that Corbyn’s office made it clear that he didn’t wish to sit next to Tony Blair at the unveiling of the Iraq and Afghanistan war memorial in London. His desire for distance was probably reciprocated, as Comrade Corbyn wanted Brigadier Blair to be charged with war crimes. Fighting old battles is easier than beating the Tories.

Brexit is a ticket to travel. The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority is lifting its three-trip cap on funded journeys to Europe for MPs. The idea of paying for as many cross-Channel visits as a politician can enjoy reminds me of Denis MacShane. Under the old limits, he ended up in the clink for fiddling accounts to fund his Continental missionary work. If the new rule was applied retrospectively, perhaps the former Labour minister should be entitled to get his seat back and compensation?

The word in Ukip is that Paul Nuttall, OBE VC KG – the ridiculed former Premier League professional footballer and England 1966 World Cup winner – has cold feet after his Stoke mauling about standing in a by-election in Leigh (assuming that Andy Burnham is elected mayor of Greater Manchester in May). The electorate already knows his Walter Mitty act too well.

A senior Labour MP, who demanded anonymity, revealed that she had received a letter after Leicester’s Keith Vaz paid men to entertain him. Vaz had posed as Jim the washing machine man. Why, asked the complainant, wasn’t this second job listed in the register of members’ interests? She’s avoiding writing a reply.

Years ago, this column unearthed and ridiculed the early journalism of George Osborne, who must be the least qualified newspaper editor in history. The cabinet lackey Ben “Selwyn” Gummer’s feeble intervention in the Osborne debate has put him on our radar. We are now watching him and will be reporting back. My snouts are already unearthing interesting information.

Kevin Maguire is the associate editor (politics) of the Daily Mirror

Kevin Maguire is Associate Editor (Politics) on the Daily Mirror and author of our Commons Confidential column on the high politics and low life in Westminster. An award-winning journalist, he is in frequent demand on television and radio and co-authored a book on great parliamentary scandals. He was formerly Chief Reporter on the Guardian and Labour Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph.

This article first appeared in the 23 March 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Trump's permanent revolution