Cameron's Europe bounce continues

New poll shows that Cameron's EU stance has significantly improved his leadership ratings.

David Cameron's run of good fortune shows no sign of ending. Today's YouGov poll confirms the Tories' two-point lead over Labour and reveals that Cameron's stance on the EU has significantly improved perceptions of his leadership. The percentage of people who agree that he "sticks to what he believes in" has risen by 13 points to 39 per cent, the number who view as "decisive" by nine points to 29 per cent, and the number who view him as "strong" by five points to 24 per cent. Since such metrics are often the best long-term predictor of the result of the next election, this is a worrying development for Labour and Ed Miliband. As I've noted before, while Labour led the Tories under Neil Kinnock, Kinnock was never rated above John Major as a potential prime minister.

Few voters know or understand what Cameron has done but, in politics, perception is everything. A series of front pages comparing him to Churchill and hailing his "bulldog spirt" were always likely to improve his ratings at the expense of Miliband's. A week ago, it was Cameron's leadership under pressure but, as yesterday's PMQs demonstrated, the roles have now reversed. Yesterday's defeat was all the more damaging for Miliband since it was the final PMQs of the year. He won't get a chance to avenge that loss and raise Labour MPs' morale until 11 January.

Fortunately for Miliband, today's Feltham by-election should be a shoo-in for Labour (the only poll conducted put Labour 22 points ahead of the Tories) but it will take more than that to reassure the gnawing doubts many have about his leadership.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The UK must reflect on its own role in stoking tension over North Korea

World powers should follow the conciliatory approach of South Korea, not its tempestuous neighbour. 

South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in has done something which took enormous bravery. As US and North Korean leaders rattle their respective nuclear sabres at one another, Jae-in called for negotiations and a peaceful resolution, rejecting the kind of nationalist and populist response preferred by Trump and Kim Jong-un.

In making this call, Jae-in has chosen the path of most resistance. It is always much easier to call for one party in a conflict to do X or Y than to sit round a table and thrash through the issues at hand. So far the British response has sided largely with the former approach: Theresa May has called on China to clean up the mess while the foreign secretary Boris Johnson has slammed North Korea as “reckless”.

China undoubtedly has a crucial role to play in any solution to the North and South Korean conflict, and addressing the mounting tensions between Pyongyang and Washington but China cannot do it alone. And whilst North Korea’s actions throughout this crisis have indeed been reckless and hugely provocative, the fact that the US has flown nuclear capable bombers close to the North Korean border must also be condemned. We should also acknowledge and reflect on the UK’s own role in stoking the fires of tension: last year the British government sent four Typhoon fighter jets to take part in joint military exercises in the East and South China seas with Japan. On the scale of provocation, that has to rate pretty highly too.

Without being prepared to roll up our sleeves and get involved in complex multilateral negotiations there will never be an end to these international crises. No longer can the US, Britain, France, and Russia attempt to play world police, carving up nations and creating deals behind closed doors as they please. That might have worked in the Cold War era but it’s anachronistic and ineffective now. Any 21st century foreign policy has to take account of all the actors and interests involved.

Our first priority must be to defuse tension. I urge PM May to pledge that she will not send British armed forces to the region, a move that will only inflame relations. We also need to see her use her influence to press both Trump and Jong-un to stop throwing insults at one another across the Pacific Ocean, heightening tensions on both sides.

For this to happen they will both need to see that serious action - as opposed to just words - is being taken by the international community to reach a peaceful solution. Britain can play a major role in achieving this. As a member of the UN Security Council, it can use its position to push for the recommencing of the six party nuclear disarmament talks involving North and South Korea, the US, China, Russia, and Japan. We must also show moral and practical leadership by signing up to and working to enforce the new UN ban on nuclear weapons, ratified on 7 July this year and voted for by 122 nations, and that has to involve putting our own house in order by committing to the decommissioning of Trident whilst making plans now for a post-Trident defence policy. It’s impossible to argue for world peace sat on top of a pile of nuclear weapons. And we need to talk to activists in North and South Korea and the US who are trying to find a peaceful solution to the current conflict and work with them to achieve that goal.

Just as those who lived through the second half of the 20th century grew accustomed to the threat of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, so those of us living in the 21st know that a nuclear strike from the US, North Korea, Iran, or Russia can never be ruled out. If we want to move away from these cyclical crises we have to think and act differently. President Jae-in’s leadership needs to be now be followed by others in the international community. Failure to do so will leave us trapped, subject to repeating crises that leave us vulnerable to all-out nuclear war: a future that is possible and frightening in equal measure.

Caroline Lucas is the MP for Brighton Pavilion.