How hard is it for the Lib Dems to ditch Clegg?
What the party’s rule book tells us.
By George Eaton Published 05 May 2011 17:59
Here's the answer to a question that will be asked a lot over the next 48 hours: how hard is it for the Lib Dems to get rid of Clegg?
The rules state that a leadership election will be held when either 75 constituency parties submit a request for one, or when a vote of no confidence is passed by a majority of Lib Dem MPs.
For those with a keen interest in such matters, here's the relevant section from the party's constitutions:
10.2 An election for the Leader shall be called upon:
(a) the Leader asking for an election;
(b) the death or incapacity of the Leader;
(c) the Leader ceasing to be a Member of the House of Commons (other than a temporary cessation by reason of a dissolution);
(d) the receipt by the President of the resignation of the Leader or of a declaration of intent to resign upon the election of a new Leader;
(e) a vote of no confidence in the Leader being passed by a majority of all Members of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons;
(f) the receipt by the President of a requisition submitted by at least 75 Local Parties (including for this purpose, the Specified Associated Organisation or Organisations representing youth and/or students) following the decision of a quorate general meeting; or
(g) the first anniversary of the preceding general election being reached without an election being called under any of paragraphs (a) through (f), provided that:
(i) the Federal Executive may postpone such an election for no more than one year by a two-thirds majority of those present and voting; and
(ii) this paragraph (g)
Any leadership challenger must have the support of at least 10 per cent of the 57 Lib Dem MPs as well as the backing of 200 party members, spread across at least 20 constituency associations.
My sense is that we're not at the stage where a leadership election is likely (as Olly Grender also argued earlier this week). We can expect several of the party's MPs to speak out after the likely referendum defeat but, owing to the mendacious No to AV campaign, much of their anger will be directed at the Tories.
We'll hear calls for Clegg to put clear yellow water between himself and the Conservatives but, as recent events have demonstrated, he's doing that anyway.
In a recent article for Prospect, Charles Kennedy offered a good account of the mood in the parliamentary party. "Despite recent setbacks, the Lib Dems are a much more resilient bunch than we are usually given credit for. We wouldn't have survived otherwise," Kennedy said.
He added that "the real fortunes of the party will hinge on the economic prognosis in the third and fourth years of this parliament".
Such stoicism is shared by the party at large.
UPDATE: Since a commenter asked me, here are the rules for Labour leadership elections. At least 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party is needed to initiate a challenge. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each candidate must have the support of 12.5 per cent of the Commons members of the PLP.
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14 comments
Thank you George.
My guess is that Labour MP's will give him until 36 months before the next election to establish a significant lead before trying to oust him.
With the government making unpopular decisions every single day and Cameron being disliked and untrusted even amongst his own party faithful then why is it that Ed cannot motivate people to vote for him?
Probably more complicated than simply memory of the last government.........
Perhaps it is that people are now wary and apathetic towards career politicians and their motives.
If this is the case then the Campbell spin legacy has caused even more damage than previously thought.
Can you remind us about the same for Labour please?
You think so? Even if they run out of places to bury the bodies of their councillors? There is going to be a lot of pressure on the leadership very soon. I'm not sure about yellow water either, all the posters I’ve seen locally have been a vibrant orange. Even their printers have been tainted by the Tories.
"Such stoicism is shared by the party at large."
How many members have you asked? I suspect Clegg's problems are just beginning.
"(g) the first anniversary of the preceding general election being reached without an
election being called under any of paragraphs (a) through (f), provided that: ... "
So we can expect a leadership challenge any time now, then? :-)
This rule, particularly (g)(ii), shows the hallmarks of being written in the early hours after a hot date with a bottle of fizz.
"My sense is that we're not at the stage where a leadership election is likely." Really, George? If the Tories or Labour were faced with the propect of losing 30-40% of their local council seats I imagine that serious questions about the leadership's abilities would arise pronto. Throw in the likely failure of an electoral reform referendum (which was presented as the clincher when Cameron offered Clegg the coalition a year ago) and misjudgements start to look like foolhardy fatal blunders. No party can survive them for long.
The problem is that changing your leader doesn't change very much.
The Lib Dems changed from Charles Kennedy to Menzies Campbell to Clegg without any significant impact (until perhaps the televised debates make Clegg look good).
Suppose the Lib Dems got rid of Clegg, they'd have a small boost as the personal attacks on Clegg would dry up.
But then what? The Lib Dems are still in the Coalition on the agreed programme. If they pull out, they might face an immediate General Election. If they stay in, the new leader will have all the problems of defending the Coalition programme.
Ambitious Lib Dems (aka Huhne) will keep their powder dry and depose Clegg after the next General Election.
How hard was it to get rid of poor OLD Menzies Campell? Political expedience will over-ride all the rules, (Ask Gloriana) if tomorrow, as expected, the AV writing is on the wall for the Lib Dems. Then Clegg will, sooner or later, have to fall on his sword - he will have run out of any possible credible future.
A Cleggless Lib Dems currently looks to be their only hope of salvaging anything from this coalition folly - even now, parliamentary survival looks very uncertain - to put it at its most optimistic. That said - the Lib Dems cannot claim to be any sort of asset in British Politics after this past year - they have been rumbled as soft (in every sense) Tories. Who needs more Tories? There is already a glut.
How hard is it for the Lib Dems to ditch Clegg?
How hard is it for the Labour to ditch Milliband?
Luddite
Thank you thank you so much I was just going to say that!
Seriously, you are so right MILLIBAND TO GO AND ED BALLS TO LEAD LABOUR TO THE WASTELAND!
There doesn't seem to much alternative to lame duck Clegg.
Huhne seems like a opportunitistic weirdo and his marital shennanigans will be raked up by the tabloids.
Tim Farron on Radio 4 this morning was laughably poor, and is obviously as deluded as Clegg.
According to Farron, its all Labour's fault and we'll all love the Lib Dems again.
My advice to Clegg is to put the past behind him and build for a future. Things can only get better. Lib Dems should never aspire to any more than 30 seats, which is frankly enough to hold the balance of power for any 3rd Party. They should be satisfied with small mercies. It seems that they took the full flack of public disapproval and the Tories escaped without much damage, which on the face of things is a bit unfair.
On yesterdays polling a Labour Govt would have been returned with a majority of 8 and Ed woud be PM.
Swatantra - You're living in dreamland. The fact that we have an all powerful government means that 30 seats would do nothing.
The government will do anything it f*cking likes untill the general public gets some self respect and roll back the state. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen any time soon.
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