“The Shoe Thrower’s Index”

A new index by the <em>Economist</em> gives an evidence-based insight into unrest in the Arab world.

Indexes help us to understand the world. Since 1986, the Economist has published the Big Mac Index, which reveals discrepancies in exchange rates, using the tasty medium of the price of a Big Mac. Guido Fawkes has attempted to revive the Misery Index, which measures how unhappy we are by combining the rates of inflation and unemployment (plus the deficit divided by GDP).

David Cameron wanted a more optimistic measure and so attempted to launch a Happiness Index, to much criticism.

The latest index thought up by the Economist goes beyond economics, however, and looks at the turmoil in the Middle East. Behold, The Shoe Thrower's Index:

There are few surprises. Yemen, Libya and Egypt, Syria and Iraq top the list, while small, oil-rich, pro-western states in the Gulf are near the bottom. The only misplaced presences appear to be Jordan, whose government has been rocked by recent events in the region, and Tunisia, which triggered the turmoil when a popular uprising removed President Ben Ali from power.

Here's how the Economist compiles the chart.

The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25.

The events of the past few weeks have led to a flurry of speculation, not much of it evidence-based. The Shoe Thrower's Index goes some way to remedying this – albeit in a frivolous fashion. It's not foolproof, but it is fun.

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Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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