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How support for electoral reform has plummeted

First-past-the-post now has an 11-point lead over the Alternative Vote.

There's more bad news for the Liberal Democrats in the latest YouGov poll. The party is back down to just 11 per cent and support for electoral reform has fallen to its lowest level yet.

The latest figures show that just 32 per cent are in favour of adopting the Alternative Vote, with 43 per cent opposed to reform. By comparison, back in June, AV had a lead of 10 points over first-past-the-post. The graph below shows how sharp the decline in support has been.

The campaign proper may not begin until next year, but it looks as if the Yes campaign will have a lot of ground to make up.

Graph

The No campaign is also significantly better organised and better funded. It already has an experienced team in place, including Matthew Elliott, the former chief executive of the Taxpayers' Alliance, the Australian pollster Lynton Crosby (who masterminded Boris Johnson's election), the Tory MPs Bernard Jenkin and George Eustice, as well as James Frayne, former campaign director of the Taxpayers' Alliance, who led the successful referendum campaign against a north-east regional assembly.

The No camp can also count on backing from wealthy City donors fearful that AV would lead to a succession of hung parliaments. The Yes camp has neither the organisational nor the financial muscle to compete.

Meanwhile, the coalition's decision to bundle its partisan boundary changes with the AV referendum means that few Labour activists are prepared to lend the campaign their support.

It seems there's little love for the electoral system that Nick Clegg once denounced as a "miserable little compromise".

Tags: Electoral Reform

46 comments

robjam's picture

Stuart Eels: "I would go further and say that after devolution the number of MPs at Westminster should be cut to 200, a good way to make cuts rather than cuts to cancer treatment!"

So, democratic principles should be driven by the transient (& ideological) imperative of financial cuts, should it?

Have you stopped for a moment to reflect on the principle of representative democracy? If so, perhaps you have come to the considered conclusion that you do indeed belong to a constituency of around 250 000 people, and that this constituency can indeed be effectively represented by 1 MP in Parliament.

Or maybe you haven't.

carlos b's picture

Andrew Morwood: "So you'd like the referendum to fail because of your tribal loyalties?"

Now there's a leap that skippy the kangaroo would be proud of. I abhor the way these cuts are being made. The ideological opportunism of the conservatives is grotesque by their own standards. Speaking of opportunism, I'm still waiting to see anything significant that the Lib Dems have got out of this deal that could be deemed progressive. I also abhor so much of the Brown/Blair government that I never joined the Labour party, even though they are, at least historically, the party with which my way of thinking is most aligned.

I want the coaltion to collapse, implode, explode, then be incinerated - because it is doing great harm. This does not make me, or Jay, a tribalist.

swatantra nandanwar's picture

In fact why not do away with Parliament altogether as Cromwell did and rule by decree. At least the trains will run on time, the bins emptied and the M25 traffic actually move anticlockwise smoothly without disruption Junctions 23-16. MPs have become redundant a surplus to requirements.
Surely the ideal thing would be for the newly elected Lords to actually help out their colleagues in the Commons by sharing the caseload.

Barny's picture

Indeed. Although in favour of electoral reform and prepared to support it prior to the election I will now vote against, also because of the boundary changes.

Sam's picture

Carlos B, it depends what your idea of progressivism is. If you're a socialist then you're no better than the conservatives as you're simply swapping landed gentry for government.

I don't bother with words like progressivism as often people mistake you for someone who wants to take power away from people, rather than someone who wants to improve things.

Sam's picture

Are NS readers against the "gerrymandering" of boundaries because there will no longer be an unfair bias towards Labour?

Dave C's picture

Sam, If you read "The coalition’s boundary changes will disenfranchise millions" at http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/11/electoral-voters-...

you will see that the proposed changes don't affect Labour that much.

"Meanwhile, there is little evidence that the changes will correct the electoral bias in favour Labour. At the last election, it took 33,000 votes to elect a Labour MP, 35,000 votes to elect a Conservative MP and 119,000 votes to elect a Liberal Democrat MP. But this disproportionality is not the result of unequal constituencies.

"A recent report by the University of Plymouth concluded:

The geography of each party's support base is much more important, so changes in the redistribution procedure are unlikely to have a substantial impact and remove the significant disadvantage currently suffered by the Conservative Party.

"Professor Michael Thrasher added: "Labour's] real advantage currently stems largely from a better-distributed vote – it acquires fewer surplus and wasted votes than its rivals. It is also benefiting more than other parties from the general decline in electoral turnout, requiring fewer votes for its victories."

Nick's picture

Clem the Gem: I'm interested in hearing your views on how you think AV will keep Cameron out? I'm sick to death of this lot and the last thing I want is to do anything which will help them stay where they are, would you care to explain? I'm genuinely undecided over how I'll vote next May, all I know is I don't want to do anything to help Cameron or Clegg stay put!

bonk's picture

I'm sure that if the Tories had won outright they wouldn't be going as far with their cuts (though far enough i agree) having the dimdems with them has given them a sheen of respectability that they wouldn't have had say with a majority of 3 or 4 seats.

I dont want PR in any form or anything like it,i suspect it'll never get through anyway because in the end the general public don't give a toss about voting reform something i think the Cleggmeister and his mealy,weasily little pals will find out next may.

Stuart Eels's picture

Same old people moaning about this that and the other but praising everything about Labour. If Labour had wanted to they had 13 years to change the voting system but didn't!

This is a step forward and so is getting rid of 50 MPs, I would go further and say that after devolution the number of MPs at Westminister should be cut to 200, a good way to make cuts rather than cuts to cancer treatment!

Alcord's picture

If this referendum fails, you can kiss a further step towards actual proportional representation goodbye for at least ten years. No one will risk their political careers bringing it up again. Even if the compromise of AV rankles, the capacity for change must e proven.

William's picture

The real worry I have from AV is the lack of accountability. Just like the horse trading we had last may, as @bonk (04 November 2010 at 12:15) rightly points out.

The Tory Manifesto had no mention of child benefit cut. The Lib Dem manifesto had no mention of child benefit cut. Put them both together and 0 + 0 = child benefit cut!

Who had the mandate for that? Who takes responsibility for that at the next election?

Sounds like a weak excuse for politicians to invent new policies once their safely in their seats and have the population off their backs.

But then again, they never really pay any attention to their manifestos anyway. So I suppose it makes no difference in the end.

Or AV could be beneficial, because, majorities would be smaller and more exposed to rebellions, thus strengthening the legislature and weakening the government.

Which leads me to my next point, if the government doesn't keep its manifesto promises, can we sue the government for breach of contract?

Cliff's picture

Wow, I cannot believe the reasons that people are using to vote against AV.

Even though it's not ideal, it's at least a step towards STV or AV+, whichever your preference happens to be.

If AV fails, do you really think that the referendums failure will suddenly lead to further reforms? Of course not. The politicians will simply hold the result up as a statement that "the people have spoken and want to stay with FPTP". And that's the last you'll ever see of electoral reform in your lifetime.

If you vote against AV in the hopes of holding out for "real" reform, you're playing right into the hands of the anti-reformers and will be simultaneously be voting against any possibility of any further reforms.

Take a look at what we've gone through in Canada and try to learn from our mistakes, please.

capt-price's picture

Of course if Clegg loses the AV vote he'll resign right, what with him being such a strong principled chap?

Tim McLellan's picture

There seem to be a lot of STV or AV plus supporters here who assume that you can only vote yes or no on the referendum. Why lend your support to a referendum you know is bogus when you can spoil your ballot?

The step in the right direction argument that seems to be popular amongst reformers is rather bizarre as well. Do we really think that following a successful referendum in May Labour or the Conservatives are suddenly going to change their mind and support genuine electoral reform at the next election? Or is the next "step" reliant on the LibDems or the Greens winning a majority?

There is only one way that we can show our support for genuine electoral reform in May and that is by spoiling our ballots.

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=135009553187548

Sam's picture

Dave C, does that mean that those who aren't on the electoral register, will not be allowed to register after the law is passed?

Capt-price, that would be more having a pissy fit because you didn't get your own way, rather than being a strong, principled chap.

Sam's picture

Horse trading would of course be a reality in PR as it would be very unlikely that there wouldn't be a coalition.

A coalition can't exactly be held to its manifesto because it's two different parties coming together, so it could be that to get things that both parties wanted they have to get rid of things that neither had in their manifesto.

It's a great shame that people are focusing on child benefit being taken away from the rich, rather than the real suffering that is going to be inflicted on the disabled.

It just shows that the poor and weak have no representation in either left wing or right wing media, as both only cover stories that concern the wealthy.

Sam's picture

Lol @ pissy fit. Hissy fit*

Phil's picture

Electoral reform was a relevant issue during the last 30 years, when a 3rd party claimed around 20%+ support.

Now that we're back to 2 party politics for the first time in a generation, it isn't.

(Definition of 2 party politics: A situation when only 2 parties enjoy double digit support. c.f. Today's You Gov poll).

Jamie_Griff's picture

Cliff,

If AV passes the politicians will roundly pat themselves on the back and say "look, we reformed the voting system. Didn't we do well?" And that's the last you'll ever see of electoral reform in your lifetime.

There's no difference. So in order to make me care there'd have to be some demonstrable benefit of AV over FPTP that isn't cancelled out by Tory gerrymandering. I can't see any.

Jay's picture

Thank god. There's nothing wrong with AV but the sooner the coalition falls apart the better. Raining on the Lib Dems' electoral reform parade is a good start and should give them a nice kick in the teeth for collaborating with the Tories.

swatantra nandanwar's picture

Its a great pity that the momentum has gone out of the AV PR campaign and people seem to be backing FPTP. The public are gluttons for punishmnent and never seem to learn from their mistakes. They bring disasters on themselves.

Andrew Morwood's picture

"There's nothing wrong with AV but the sooner the coalition falls apart the better."

So you'd like the referendum to fail because of your tribal loyalties? Proper PR can't come soon enough.

Gobannian's picture

Jay, Surely that should read "There's a lot wrong with AV AND the sooner the coalition falls apart the better."

Peter's picture

Surely the first-past-the-post system remains even with AV? Which, frankly, is why it's not worth supporting.

I'm all for PR, but in my opinion AV will make a true representative system less likely to be implemented as it will be seen as the final step in change rather than a first step towards PR.

Tim McLellan's picture

AV is indeed a miserable and pointless compromise. Supporters of genuine electoral reform (i.e. STV or AV plus) should spoil their ballots in May. There is already a growing facebook community (known as the Double Cross Campaign) that plans to do just that.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=135009553187548

Jamie_Griff's picture

Not bothered - I'm a huge proponent of electoral reform, I've sent countless emails, attended events, been on marches, bored my friends to tears, the lot. But AV is a sop to electoral reform. It is no more representative than FPTP, it will do nothing to increase diversity or to break the two-party duopoly of parliament and if the bill introducing it is bundles in constituency boundary changes then it will massively favour the Conservatives.
Whereas if it fails, hopefully the mounting dissatisfaction with Westminster politics that has so far led to parliamentary time for the issue will build and lead to genuine reform.

Dave C's picture

Sam, Of course those currently not on the electoral register can register after the boundary review. However, the topic of this page is AV.

Clem the Gem's picture

Given that as well as the referendum, The Coalition are culling 50 seats in the most naked Gerrymandering for over a century, all those with a "dont care" attitude, or those who believe that this will be the death knell of the LibCons are gravely mistaken. Unless we get AV through, we are likely to see at least a decade of Cameron. Do you really want that you imbeciles???
http://clemthegem.wordpress.com

Dave's picture

Next May's referendum will only offer a choice between First Past The Post (FPTP) and Alternative Vote (AV).

This creates a dilemma for supporters of reform, because it is difficult to defend AV (which is a poor alternative to FPTP), but unless we support AV, we will be stuck with FPTP!

If FPTP wins the referendum, the professional politicians will say, you've had your referendum, the matters settled for another hundred years.

This dilemma would not exist if the referendum included a proportional option, called Single Transferrable Vote (STV).

That's why those in favour of reform need to cross their fingers and vote AV and hope a win for AV will lead to further reform. Ironically this is likely, because no one really likes AV!

Dave C's picture

I support AV as it will open up the political system. It's clear from elections fought under other systems that, say, the Greens and UKIP have significant support. At present, their supporters generally have to either support one of the big three or 'waste' their vote.

AV by itself may not be perfect but it will solve that problem: for example, a UKIP supporter can give his first preference to UKIP and his second to the Tories. The true level of UKIP support will be expressed at least in terms of votes.

Wilf Day's picture

Your heading "support for electoral reform has plummeted" is in error. AV is no reform. Already Northern Ireland activists are pointing out that it would have cost Naomi Long her seat. Brian Wilson, MLA for North Down: "AV would have a detrimental impact in Northern Ireland. It would reinforce sectarian voting and increase polarisation . . . when the smaller unionist or nationalist party is eliminated the voter can then transfer to the larger unionist / nationalist party still remaining. This will turn every constituency into a sectarian headcount." Just the first example of what happens when you take an unfair majoritarian system and make it still more majoritarian; a step in the WRONG direction.

Will's picture

Is anyone surprised that no one wants AV? It is a stupid system that we are only voting on because Clegg chucked out all his remaining principles to get a referendum on something that would only help the Lib Dem Party.

I don't want AV because I don't think we could have a proper left-wing government ever again if it were brought in. The Lib Dems would decide who was in Government and I don't see them ever consenting to a rise in taxes for bankers and business to help pay for proper welfare reform.

Hal's picture

The funny thing about "first past the post" is that there is no "post". Under AV, the post is 50% and the first past it wins.

I think AV has more right to be called first past the post, and supporters of the other system should make up their own name.

Mike Homfray's picture

I will be voting against AV. I think the vast majority of Labour supporters will end up dong the same. Its not an improvement and why do anything to benefit the coalition?

Vote NO!

bonk's picture

I will vote no to AV because as flawed as FPTP is its a hell of a lot better than the horse trading we saw last may i don't ever want to see that sort of thing again.

And if it had been labour/libs i would have felt the same way.

Oh and to the argument of we'll get 10 years of Cameron if you don't vote AV,that is down to the dire labour leader we now have,not a voting system

puzzlebobble's picture

@Cliff

"it's at least a step towards STV or AV+"

can you provide a shred of evidence that it is a "step towards" either of them? Even the teeniest tiny bit to show that it would add momentum to real electoral reform?

Luddite's picture

The support for the Liberals may have dropped, but they will still win Oldham and Saddleworth.

Bob Gillon's picture

Never mind about PR or AV, when are they going to reduce the number of MPs? I suggest somewhere about 400 would be enough for Parliament

jeremiah's picture

Cleggy can stick his referendum where the sun don't shine.

Even if I supported AV (which I don't), I will do nothing to support these trojan horse Lib Dems b'stards!

ang's picture

You gov have just polled the Lib dems at 9%. Hilarious!

Cliff's picture

@Jamie_Griff

You're tying the issue of gerrymandering with the issue of whether AV is better than FPTP.

@puzzlebobble

Are you kidding? If you pass AV, then moving toward STV or AV+ is more of a matter of going from single member to multi-member districts or substituting/adding list members for AV+. It should be obvious that that's less of a jump than going straight from FPTP and, therefore, an easier sell.

We've had four referendums in various provinces in Canada and the've all failed for the same reason that the proposed systems, either STV or MMP, were too great of a change for people to understand and embrace.

Additionally, speaking as a person who campaigned for electoral reform in BC, we had people who voted against STV because they wanted MMP and vice versa in the provinces where MMP was on the ballot. Guess what? The people who voted against the proposed reform ended up with nothing as electoral reform is now dead in the water here. And that's exactly what'll happen if AV fails as well.

Again, obviously AV is only partial reform; but if it passes, at least you've still got your foot in the door. But if it fails, and take it from Canada, the door will be slammed shut.

Jana Mills's picture

If the Lib Dems are wipped out at the next election, which I have to say is a very real possibility. PR would be pretty much academic. If we return to a two-party system then the Lib Dems will have inadvertently solved the problem for us (though perhaps not in the way they would have intended).

Perhaps we should turn our attention to the reform of main political parties to make them more responsive rather than PR to create more?

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