The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

What’s gone wrong for the Lib Dems?

Unless there is a major shift tonight, this might not be such a game-changer for the third party.

By Samira Shackle Published 07 May 2010 3:59

At least something is going right -- Chris Huhne has held on to his Eastleigh seat.

But the results so far are certainly not reflecting the "Cleggmania" that followed the leaders' first televised debate, nor do they live up to the neck-and-neck-with-Labour ratings shown in the polls last week.

There are several possible reasons for this. It's possible the TV debates just didn't have quite as much of an impact as was widely expected. Respondents were likely to treat polls taken immediately after the debate as a poll of who they thought best in the debate, rather than whom they were voting for, regardless of how the question was phrased.

This leads to a second possible distorting factor -- the sheer quantity of polling in this election. The introduction of the daily poll may, in fact, have been counterproductive to the aim of presenting an accurate picture of national mood or voter intention.

Finally, Lib Dem support is notoriously soft. Many people like the idea of the party -- even more so those who were exposed to the party through the leaders' debate -- but, when it comes down to it, feel that their vote might be wasted.

Both of the other main parties played on this, Labour saying that a vote for the Lib Dems would let Cameron in through the back door (certainly a potent tactic among people I know) and the Tories warning of the dangers of a hung parliament.

Perhaps this election won't be quite the game-changer for the third party that many thought it would be just a few weeks ago.

Of course, this could all change as the night goes on. Clegg could yet be kingmaker.

Tags: Election 2010

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10 comments

Fri, 2010-05-07 10:17 — TT (not verified)

In reply to the above message, for a vote breakdown, see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/ - with 600 seats declared, the Tories have 10 million votes, Labour 8 million, and Lib Dem 6.5 million.

Sun, 2010-05-09 00:02 — jeremiah

The trouble the Lib Dems have is that they have no grounding in political reality. The people looked at the Lib Dems during the campaign like never before.

Are they left wing or right wing? Progressive or Conservative? The answer is depending on where you live or who you listen to.

One of my favourite moments was when that smugo Susan Kramer got the bullet.

She was on Newsnight last week saying it was a two horse race between Lib Dems and Conservatives and that Labour was finished.

It is a pity she lost to the equally smug Zac Goldsmith.

Sat, 2010-05-08 02:18 — Ray Curnow (not verified)

6.5 million votes looks like a hell of a lot to me in an anachronistic voting system which massively discriminates against third parties. It gives the centre-left a 4.5 million vote advantage over the right.

Is that a significant margin?

Sat, 2010-05-08 12:33 — bernard2

its simple when the tories do well the lib dems always do badly , always now clegg wants to sup with them . camron will call an election when hes high in the polls . this election will be under first passed the post with the tories increasing their vote AND ITS GOOD BYE LIBREL DEMOCRATS SWEPED ASIDE IN A TORIE LANDSLIDE . STUPID LIB DEMS CANT THEY THINK OR SPMETHING ? PR FRITTERD AWAY FOR NOTHING , NOTHING IS AS IMPORTANT AS ELECTROL REFORM . OH BUT NICK WILL TELL YOU ITS ALL FOR THE MARKETS , hes been hood winked clegg has bye the pressure of the moment and his emotions . clegg gets some fuking sleep and get a grip of your self mate , remember the progressive majority 53% to the cons 35% .

Sat, 2010-05-08 12:35 — bernard2

the progressives beat the conservitives 53% to 35% .

Fri, 2010-05-07 04:17 — Lisa Ansell (not verified)

Lib Dems were painted as the party on the left. Backed by the guardian, and the whole country started talking about them like they were the new party on the left. Nick Clegg was shouting about two horse races.

When Libs became the new party on the left it polarised voters on the right back to Conservative. It mobilised support back to Labour. Tactical voting may achieve a hung parliament- but it has really buggered the lib dems.

Fri, 2010-05-07 04:18 — slightlyiratecouncillor

Yes, Clegg's mad 'It's a 2 horse race' moment did them serious damage. Will anyone ever believe anything a LibDem ever says again? It would be only their own fault, if the answer is No.

Fri, 2010-05-07 05:08 — TFOE (not verified)

So yet again Britain tactically votes for no electoral change whatsoever. Sigh.

Fri, 2010-05-07 05:15 — Hmm (not verified)

Things are a lot closer looking at the percentages of votes but that doesn't really make up for such a disappointing result for the Libs so far ... the most surprising thing is that I was even briefly surprised that the public bottled it at the last minute.

Fri, 2010-05-07 07:49 — Luton Resident (not verified)

Any more information about the percentages of votes? It would be interesting to see this information compiled - do you mean that their share of the popular vote isn't as low as their seats imply?