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Why the Tories' pregnancy error is alarming

The party's dystopian view of Britain -- exposed.

One of the early lessons of the pre-election campaign is that statistics aren't the Conservatives' strong point. At the beginning of the month, Chris Grayling was caught out when he manipulated statistics in order to falsely claim that violent crime had increased hugely over the past decade.

Now, a new attack document from the party, Labour's Two Nations, claims that in the ten most deprived parts of the country, "54 per cent [of teenage girls] are likely to fall pregnant before the age of 18".

In fact, the figures from the Department for Children, Schools and Families show that, in the areas concerned, 54.32 out of every 1,000 women aged 15-17 fell pregnant, which gives us a figure of 5.4 per cent, not 54 per cent.

This was clearly more cock-up than conspiracy: someone at CCHQ left a decimal point out. But what's more extraordinary is that no one sounded the alarm and pointed out that, regardless of your maths ability, 54 per cent is not a plausible finding. That the figure was repeated three times makes this failure even more remarkable.

Labour can justifiably claim that the error reflects the Tories' dystopian and distorted view of British society.

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14 comments

jmedwards's picture

Blunders happen all the time.

Non-story.

Remember the Himalayan melting blunder by the IPCC?

I am not familiar with the "ten most deprived areas" in the country. Neither are you, the writer. Probably neither are you, future commenters. Neither will most academics and researchers working at CCHQ.

It is easy to see how the mistake was made - there is no reason why someone would 'spot' the mistake because the figure is 'unreasonable'.

An 'unreasonable' figure would be 553.2%, and we could slate them not spotting that.

sunderkatwala's picture

The Tory interest in social exclusion is very welcome. One of the underlying problems is that there are no Tory MPs and v.few if any councillors representing the most deprived areas. So this highlights the danger of Common People style "poverty tourism" (and indeed "broken society porn" served up to the national media, which seems to have become an endemic risk to the "broken Britain" approach whenever it risks veering too close to a social fact.

Perhaps the 54% slip is because that's what they think life in the hood is like. What makes this more surprising is that the document claims that the range of teen pregnancy is between 19% and 54% everywhere across the UK, with one in five young women under 18 getting pregnant in the *most affluent* areas in Britain. That is claimed more than once too.

That suggests even the modernisers at CCHQ may have a 'Dacreland nightmare' blindspot which means several staffers, senior advisers and shadow ministers could see that and thinks "looks about right"

Shouldn't NS find out who saw/approved this document?

Dave Smith's picture

These mistakes occur all the time. For instance the claim that "Iraq could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes" - when the actual figure was nearer to 45 years.
Funny how Prescott refrains from twittering about that one.

michellegraham's picture

@jmedwards - a 553.2% pregnancy rate would not be 'unreasonable': it would be impossible. Surely, we should expect higher maths standards than that from people who want to run the country!
@Dave Smith - if this error is on the same scale as the 45-minute claim, then we should all be twittering about it!

The Tories are selling themselves as the new benefactors of the poor and to be making this kind of 'blunder' or 'mistake' only highlights what they imagine goes on in the so-called 'broken' Britain they're so resolved to fix.

jmedwards's picture

@michellegraham

Exactly, that is my point. It would be impossible, therefore any exclamation on our part that the mistake was allowed to slip by would be justified.

However, to the average CCHQ admin bod, 54% could well be fine. It was a slip up.

jason's picture

How dense are you people. No one thought 54 percent of teens were pregnant.

It was a typing error by a young staffer.

jason's picture

A press release by a staffer who types in by accident the wrong place to put the decimal point becomes top news.

This is unreal.

Oliver's picture

What will Carol Vorderman say with regard to the mathematical abilities of the conservative party. Somewhat ironic.

A*******'s picture

Yes - it was a typing error and yes, it was only a decimal point. But the fact that it was not picked up is seriously bad news for us if we're saddled with this kind of attention to detail when solving the economic crisis. The odd decimal point here or there translates into millions of pounds worth of mistakes. Having witnessed at close hand the kind of slip-ups that happen in the City everyday, it isn't funny.

jason's picture

Labour flooded this country with massive immigration and refused to publish documents from civil servants that would have showed the effects of this.

Gordon Brown says Spain is in the G20 when UK was the only G20 economy still in recession.

Labour blocks MET reports on the findings of the global warming e-mails.

I will never forget 2005 election when the issue was michael howard and not tony blair.

You can be the biggest war criminal imaginable but if you are labour you are guaranteed to be elected again.

I will never forget the liberal voters tearing into howard and giving Blair more time in office.

The politics in the UK sucks.

jason's picture

God I can't take this story. Of course they didn't think 54 percent of people are going to be pregnant before 18.

It was a simple tying error by a young staffer.

I give up with politics. The guardian and now even the telegraph pound the tories day after day. Guardian is now in full campaign mode.

Labour wins a fourth term, a fifth, a sixth.

UK the new south africa of one party system.

jason's picture

It wasn't a blunder. A staffer by mistake typed it in wrong. I swear the UK is so biased against conservatives that this non story is leading on so many news sites. I am now convinced Labour will be in power forever.

Conservatives won't get a majority and Brown will refuse to give up power and he will change the voting system to keep him in power forever.

We could be looking at another decade of Gordon Brown as PM and then god knows what labour leader will lead us after that.

Labour will gerrymander the system so bad to keep them in power forever.

jason's picture

Detail like selling gold at record lows.

Detail like saying in summer of 2007 on last speech before you become PM that we are in a golden era. Brown said this well after the credit crunch had started.

Detail like saying Spain is part of G20 when they aren't and UK was first in recession and last out in the G20.

Detail like Darling not allowing Barclay's to do deal with lehman brothers and instead governments let lehman collapse and the whole world economy went to hell because of Darling's ineptitude.

Lehman was way too big to fail and the recession would have been far better if that hadn't happened.

We wouldn't be seeing what is happening in greece without that decision to let Lehman crash.

Darling and Brown sent the world economy off a cliff.

They destroyed the military with their support of Iraq and IED land is now in afghanistan.

Brown is a war criminal and running for election is pathetic he should be tried.

zoewoe's picture

jason, you sound pretty vexed and i don't want to annoy you further, but... even if, as you say, a "staffer" typed this in by accident, it was released into the public domain. So it would have gone through proof readers, senior press people, at least one senior policy person. There is absolutely no way a junior would be the last eyes on a document of this magnitude.

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