Why the growing Hispanic electorate could lock the Republicans out of the White House forever
It's the demography, stupid.
By Alex Ward Published 04 October 2012 17:31
Back in August, former Florida governor Jeb Bush issued a frank warning to the Republican party:
"Our demographics are changing, and we have to change. Not necessarily our core beliefs, but the tone of our message and the intensity of it for sure"
"There has to be a concerted effort to reach out to a much broader audience than we do today"
With the Hispanic community passing the 50 million mark in 2010, the shifting complexion of America’s electorate heralds an epochal change too monumental to ignore. As the US’s fastest growing minority, the number of registered Latino voters has doubled to 11 million since 1994, whilst the white share of the vote has dropped steadily by an average of 3 per cent in each election since 1992.
As Latinos become a more decisive force in America’s electoral future, one thing is sure to ruffle the feathers of all Republicans: the vast majority are voting Obama.
In the 2008 election, Obama won roughly 68 per cent of the Hispanic vote. This proved crucial in Obama edging victory in various bellwether states as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado all turned blue, the latter for the first time since 1992.
These trends show no sign of reversing either. According to a impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll conducted in September, Obama is currently predicted to take 61 per cent of the Hispanic vote in key battleground states and 73 per cent of the national share.
Romney, on the other hand, is estimated to have the support of just 21 per cent of the Latino community, falling far short of his campaign target of 38 per cent. The yawning gulf between the two candidates presents an all-but-impossible obstacle for the former Massachusetts governor to surmount, and his rhetoric on the campaign trail has done him no favours.
Through various appeals to the far-right during the Republican primaries, Romney dealt a considerable blow to his standing among the Hispanic community. Among them was a promise to veto the DREAM act: a piece of legislation that provides a path to citizenship for hispanic youths brought into the US illegally as children. He also voiced his opposition to Sonia Sotomayor’s appointment as the first Hispanic Supreme Court justice and proposed an unrealistic ‘self-deportation’ plan as a solution to the US immigration issue.
If these policy promises hadn’t send out a negative message to Latinos, the lexicon certainly did. His systematic use of the words ‘illegals’ and ‘aliens’ to describe unlawful immigrants reduced a deeply complex political issue to pejorative labelling, reflecting a certain contempt that earned him no friends in the Hispanic community.
Despite backpedaling somewhat on his opposition to the DREAM act, it’s simply a matter of too little, too late. Wednesday’s debate didn’t help him either, as the topic of immigration was all but absent from the schedule, denying Romney invaluable airtime to project a more palatable message to alienated Latinos.
Overall though, to focus solely on this year’s election is to miss the point. Since Bush, the Republican party has upheld a tough stance toward undocumented immigrants, usually accompanied by harsh rhetoric that has the capacity to dent the GOP’s image far beyond this election.
To make matters worse, a Pew Hispanic Centre Poll revealed earlier this year that the challenges facing the Republican party extend far beyond issues of immigration to more profound structural trends.
According to the poll, 75 per cent of Latinos said they favoured bigger government, in stark contrast to the 41 per cent of the general US public that shared the same view. The study also showed that 30 per cent of Latino adults claimed to hold liberal views, 9 per cent higher than the overall population. Hispanic voters are also younger voters of a generation more likely to vote Democrat.
To put it bluntly, the forecast looks bleak for the GOP. The popularity enjoyed by the Republicans under Bush has eroded. Since he claimed 44 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, a staunch anti-immigration agenda has seen this share plummet to 31 per cent under McCain in 2008, right down to a projected 25 per cent for Romney.
For the Democrats, the ballooning support among the growing Latino community could be as crucial as the New Deal, which ushered in a wave of Democratic dominance following the Great Depression.
For the Republicans, the seismic shift in the complexion of the US electorate could put the presidency well out of reach for the foreseeable future.
No longer can the White House be won without the Hispanic vote, and the GOP needs to wise up. With their popularity in terminal decline among the next generation of Latinos, the Republican party must tame the anachronism of its far-right to embrace a model of progressivm more in tune with the times we live in.
Otherwise, they’ll find themselves squarely on the wrong side of history.
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists





















23 comments
Ward successfully shows weekness in Romney's campaign by employing something even more compelling than statistics; the indisputable, raw evidence of Romney's own lexicon
This excellent article prompts me to comment on one of the flaws of democracy; that the need to win votes persuades parties to proclaim beliefs that are outside their core beliefs, and therefore insincere.
It could be said that core beliefs are sincere, genuine and yet naturally tribal.
True democracy is perhaps the opposite, being the pretence of accepting of beliefs that are alien.
Hence the dilemma of all candidates is this: how far to move away from the base of their genuine tribal core beliefs towards the other end of the belief spectrum in order to satisfy as many voters as deemed necessary.
It appears from Romney's own background that his Dad came from South of the Border.
Wet Back
and Romney of course never mentions that his dad received State benefits (money, health care, housing etc) on his return to US soil. without Romney senior claiming his entitlements he would never have been able to find his feet and avoid abject poverty.
Romney was raised in what was initially exactly the type of household that he now denounces as un-American freeloading lay-abouts, aka the 47%.
He actually said "those that pay no Fed tax will not be attracted by my keep Fed tax low" campaign promise"... can you show me where he has said he wants no entitlements for anyone?
.
Georgies' dad never renounced US citizenship so Georgie not an illegal, you are wrong bat-breath...
This is why the Democrats are so keen on importing em: to provide a perm Dem majority: same reason Nulab let four million third worders into the UK: you have a permanant welfare dependent third world underclass who can be relied upon to vote Democrat.
Yep, because immigration only takes place when Democrats are in office or when Labour is. That's right, isn't it?
and since Labour lost the last election your whole hypothesis is just a steaming pile of cack. yet again a foreigner like me puts you in your rightful place John, how annoying eh?
What is it to be American? Inclusion or exclusion?
"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Unless this is the core of your politics then a presidential campaign will be an exercise for the 'also ran.'
It would be helpful to be Latino? Tell that to the Latinos who are treated like third rate citizens by so many white Americans. A leader of the free world and 'at the heart of all that is fair and good' no wonder the Hispanic population of the US look to someone who has more in common with them i.e. Obama, regardless of his policies and beliefs. It would be ridiculous to expect there to be no prejudice against people of colour as it is so deeply engrained in the American psyche, but come on - illegals and aliens? Aliens! There is no way Romney should ever get into the White House as it would be a complete leap back in time to a place we should never be again.
evidently Romney is not the only racist arse who tries to 'do' Latino....these bigots are compelled to think they are superior to people with darker skin tones.
Why is it "identity politics" when the non-white and the female are lining up to vote for Obama very largely because he is black, but not when large numbers of the white and the male are lining up for the other candidate for no other reason than that he is both white and male?
So much, it must be said, for longstanding Republican attempts to court the Hispanic vote. As soon the coming Hispanic majority there moves Texas into the Democratic column, there will never be another Republican President of the United States. Will there ever be another President who is both white and a native speaker of English? Quite possibly not. The battle in future will be between a black candidate and a Hispanic candidate for the Democratic nomination, itself effectively the guarantee of election.
Worth watching, therefore, is the increasing attempt by the Israel Lobby to bring the Latinos in line, not least out of shared antipathy towards the blacks, the WASPs , and the "white ethnics". If the Latinos really were the Great Brown Hope of American Catholicism, then they would side instead with the Latin Catholics and the Syrian Catholics, the Melkites and the Maronites, who with the Arab Orthodox and the ancestrally Orthodox Palestinian Anglicans (it's a long story) founded Arab nationalism in general and the whole concept of Filastin in particular, and provided almost the latter's entire leadership inside the Green Line until 1973, despite the overwhelming Sunni Muslim majority among Israeli Arabs, as among Palestinians generally. The former Balad MK Azmi Bishara, who was driven into exile as recently as 2007 because of the bombardment of Lebanon, was a Catholic from Nazareth, where, in an echo of the roots of the Christian Coalition and the Moral Majority, he was educated by the Southern Baptist Mission.
But then, the "white ethnics" would also take that view if they really were the existing pillars and bulwarks of Catholic and Orthodox America. Furthermore, if the road to American Christendom really did have its signs painted in Spanish, then the speakers of that tongue would be solid social conservatives as well as solid economic populists in the New Deal tradition. As it is, so far are they at least from the former, that they might be susceptible to the blandishments of those with the closest possible ties to Hollywood and to the New York media. And thence, of course, to Wall Street.
The Senate, in particular, will continue to contain enough Republicans to make that party look like a reasonably viable national force. The question, then, is which of the two Democratic Parties, competing in the bitterest of terms within that body, will partly subsume and partly be subsumed by the rump of the GOP.
Will it be the economically populist and even social democratic, morally and socially conservative, largely black one (the Republicans having been historically the party of the blacks) which is also sufficiently "white ethnic" to speak and act for the ancient indigenous Christians of the Holy Land and the wider Middle East, but which otherwise represents Republicans' own historical norm of more or less isolationist foreign policy together with a strong pursuit of global nuclear disarmament?
Or will it be the economically neoliberal, socially liberal one with a largely Hispanic electorate but with its direction set from the liberal Jewish salons of Hollywood and New York, giving it a strong and active commitment to the secular Zionist project of old and to a wider liberal interventionism throughout the world?
These will be the two main formations in American politics before very long at all. America does not really do third parties. So, the remnant Republicans can find a home in one of them, or they can find a home in the other. Which is it to be? And why?
In the meantime, might not a party on the first model be set up for ballot line purposes in New York State?
This one i spure economics, sorry...
"is pure economics"...
yes David, let's all hope and pray that the future of US politics is permanently linked to not only race but increasingly also religious sectarianism.
When has it ever not been?
well, those Founding Fathers did insist on separation of church and State. they seem positively hyper modern compared to what you desire. or have i got you all wrong David?
Very ironic that Univision now brings us the Fast & Furious Obama drug cartel gun-running scandal in full gory detail. And gave Oblamer the toughest media interview this year. Many hispanics are conservative, family-oriented & religious. sí se puede y tu mama jankass!
Ah, but it's only the ageing generations. That trend is common across the entire racial and socio-economic spectrum. you get older; you fall more to the right. I don't want to generalise and I want to make clear that this doesnt happen to everyone - just a lot of us
I see hispanics lined up, young & old, standing at strategic locations, waiting for day labor jobs- in the cold, in the heat, all day long, every day. It's not so much about "getting free stuff" as it is about getting a job & making a living. They have a goal. Totally different mindset than many in the "47%". Guess we'll see how that difference plays out.
to quote Romney from that 'secret' recording; "It would be helpful to be Latino."
you couldn't make it up, the man's a total arse.