Why the coalition can't and won't lurch to the right

The new cabinet remains bound by the terms of the Coalition Agreement.

New Conservative chairman Michael Green (otherwise known as Grant Shapps) insisted this morning that the reshuffle did not represent a "shift to the right" but, displaying an unusual degree of consensus, Fleet Street disagrees. The Daily Mail, the Guardian, the Financial Times and the Independent all variously welcome or bemoan the reshuffle as a turn to the right. And it's not hard to see why. Liberal Tories such as Ken Clarke, George Young and Sayeeda Warsi have been sacked or demoted, while right-wingers such as Chris Grayling, Theresa Villiers and Owen Paterson have been promoted. Further down the ministerial ranks, Tory attack-dog-in-chief Michael Fallon, and George Osborne's representative on earth, Matthew Hancock, have been dispatched to BIS to rein in Vince Cable, the man known among Tories as the "anti-business secretary".

But, in all likelihood, liberals are wrong to fear and conservatives wrong to hope for a shift to the right in policy. As the Prime Minister's spokesman said yesterday, "This is a reshuffle, it doesn't mean a change in government policy. It means different people in different jobs, but the policy remains the same." The government remains bound by the terms of the Coalition Agreement, so the fact, for instance, that the new Justice Secretay Chris Grayling once resolved to "tear up" the Human Rights Act is of little significance. The presence of the Liberal Democrats means he won't be able to. It will be as if Ken Clarke never left. Similarly, any new push for radical supply side reform, along the lines of that proposed by the Beecroft Report, will be vetoed by Cable et al. As the Lib Dems are briefing this morning, they won't allow "a phalanx of new right-wing policies".

Too many Tory MPs and commentators pretend to forget that this is a coalition government. As one Conservative cabinet minister recently told ConservativeHome: "The Lib Dems may only have one-sixth of the MPs, but without them we have no majority... They own 100% of the majority." For that reason, this is not now and never will be the full-blooded Conservative government that the right wishes to see. In order to change that, they need to win a majority first, a goal that Cameron, in his refusal to remove George Osborne and reverse direction on the economy (the biggest drag on the Tories' poll ratings), did little to advance yesterday.

Ken Clarke asleep (again) at the cricket yesterday. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Metro mayors can help Labour return to government

Labour champions in the new city regions can help their party at the national level too.

2017 will mark the inaugural elections of directly-elected metro mayors across England. In all cases, these mayor and cabinet combined authorities are situated in Labour heartlands, and as such Labour should look confidently at winning the whole slate.

Beyond the good press winning again will generate, these offices provide an avenue for Labour to showcase good governance, and imperatively, provide vocal opposition to the constraints of local government by Tory cuts.

The introduction of the Mayor of London in 2000 has provided a blueprint for how the media can provide a platform for media-friendly leadership. It has also demonstrated the ease that the office allows for attribution of successes to that individual and party – or misappropriated in context of Boris Bikes and to a lesser extent the London Olympics.

While without the same extent of the powers of the sui generis mayor of the capital, the prospect of additional metro-mayors provide an opportunity for replicating these successes while providing experience for Labour big-hitters to develop themselves in government. This opportunity hasn’t gone unnoticed, and after Sadiq Khan’s victory in London has shown that the role can grow beyond the limitations – perceived or otherwise - of the Corbyn shadow cabinet while strengthening team Labour’s credibility by actually being in power.

Shadow Health Secretary and former leadership candidate Andy Burnham’s announcement last week for Greater Manchester was the first big hitter to make his intention known. The rising star of Luciana Berger, another member of Labour’s health team, is known to be considering a run in the Liverpool City Region. Could we also see them joined by the juggernaut of Liam Byrne in the West Midlands, or next-generation Catherine McKinnell in the North East?

If we can get a pantheon of champions elected across these city regions, to what extent can this have an influence on national elections? These new metro areas represent around 11.5 million people, rising to over 20 million if you include Sadiq’s Greater London. While no doubt that is an impressive audience that our Labour pantheon are able to demonstrate leadership to, there are limitations. 80 of the 94 existing Westminster seats who are covered under the jurisdiction of the new metro-mayors are already Labour seats. While imperative to solidify our current base for any potential further electoral decline, in order to maximise the impact that this team can have on Labour’s resurgence there needs to be visibility beyond residents.

The impact of business is one example where such influence can be extended. Andy Burnham for example has outlined his case to make Greater Manchester the creative capital of the UK. According to the ONS about 150,000 people commute into Greater Manchester, which is two constituency’s worth of people that can be directly influenced by the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

Despite these calculations and similar ones that can be made in other city-regions, the real opportunity with selecting the right Labour candidates is the media impact these champion mayors can make on the national debate. This projects the influence from the relatively-safe Labour regions across the country. This is particularly important to press the blame of any tightening of belts in local fiscal policy on the national Tory government’s cuts. We need individuals who have characteristics of cabinet-level experience, inspiring leadership, high profile campaigning experience and tough talking opposition credentials to support the national party leadership put the Tory’s on the narrative back foot.

That is not to say there are not fine local council leaders and technocrats who’s experience and governance experience at vital to Labour producing local successes. But the media don’t really care who number two is, and these individuals are best serving the national agenda for the party if they support A-listers who can shine a bright spotlight on our successes and Tory mismanagement.

If Jeremy Corbyn and the party are able to topple the Conservatives come next election, then all the better that we have a diverse team playing their part both on the front bench and in the pantheon of metro-mayors. If despite our best efforts Jeremy’s leadership falls short, then we will have experienced leaders in waiting who have been able to afford some distance from the front-bench, untainted and able to take the party’s plan B forward.