The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Obama's re-election looks an ever-safer bet

US president opens up a five-point lead over Romney in latest national poll.

By George Eaton Published 10 September 2012 10:00

Barack Obama waves at a campaign event. Photograph: Getty Images.

Barack Obama waves at a campaign event in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photograph: Getty Images.

Despite his rather underwhelming convention speech and Friday's mediocre US jobs figures, Barack Obama is looking an ever-safer bet for re-election. The latest Gallup national poll gives him a five-point lead over Mitt Romney (49-44), the largest he has enjoyed since early July, compared to a one-point lead before the Democratic Convention. Worse for Romney, since the Gallup poll is based on a rolling seven-day average (meaning that some of it was conducted before the key speeches last week), Obama's real lead could be even larger.

In addition, approval with Obama has risen from 45% before the convention to 50%, the level that typically guarantees re-election. Significantly, this is a far larger bounce than that received by Romney, who saw support for him rise by a statistically insignificant one point after the Republican convention.

Finally, Obama has also extended his lead in Ohio, the most likely "tipping point" state, (see Nicky Woolf's on-the-ground report for the NS). Overnight, the first Ohio poll since the convention gave Obama a five-point lead over Romney (50-45), his largest since early May.

Barring some unexpected foreign or economic crisis, Romney's only remaining chance to change the state of the race will come with the presidential TV debates, the first of which is on 3 October. But it will be worth watching the polls closely for the next fortnight. As a study by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien showed, the candidate who leads in the polls two weeks after the conventions has won the popular vote in the last 15 presidential elections.

Special Offer: Get 12 issues of New Statesman magazine for just £12

Tags: Barack Obama US Election 2012 Mitt Romney

More from George Eaton

View the discussion thread.

19 comments

Thu, 2012-09-20 04:20 — John Cheese (not verified)

Last night on the CBS Late Show with David Letterman, President Obama suggested that “we don’t have to worry about [the debt] short term.” The $16 Trillion debt.

Letterman: “Now do you remember what that number was [when you walked into office]? Was it $10 trillion? Was it that?”

President: “Ah, I don’t remember what that number was precisely, but.…”

Can we please make this stop?

Sun, 2012-09-16 13:12 — hugh markey (not verified)

The American electorate voted for Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bust(!) Junior twice. Each was a two-term(time) president.
Eisenhower lost the Space Race; Nixon lost 'Nam and the Arms Race; Reagan - just lost; and Junior Bush lost about everything.
Yet, Mitt still has a chance. Not much of one but we can't rule him out. What is it with the American electorate. Are they born-agin losers?

Chimps' Tea Party

Mon, 2012-09-10 23:30 — Fuq Woqs (not verified)

Send him back to East Africa!

Tue, 2012-09-11 15:41 — jankaas (not verified)

though you are clearly a petty little troll you do exactly mirror the racism inherent in the GOP campaign. the amount of abuse and bigotry aimed at the President is astonishing. treasonous behaviour that undermines their own nation.

add to that the racism that surfaced during the GOP primaries about who would build the longest, tallest, biggest wall to keep brown people out of the US, and you have to realise this will come back to haunt you. some states have a very very large Hispanic population, and despite GOP 'best' efforts they have retained their right to vote.

it's an ever safer bet that Obama will get a 2nd term. doubt anyone would bet real money against that result. tell you what, i'll put £10 on Obama winning, so if he loses i'll donate it to UNICEF.

anyone else willing to do similar?

Tue, 2012-09-11 19:22 — John Cheese (not verified)

Jankers: Take off the racial-colored glasses for one second & think: Jobs created during Obama's admin has been 4.5 million, but the US needed 5.9 million jobs created just to keep up with population growth. We are 1.4 million jobs short right now & have a Prez that wastes money on Solyndra green jobs & mismanaged the whole GM fiasco. Why on earth would US citizen's interest in protecting our borders for terrorism interests, job prospect management & tax base be considered "racial"??? Do you really think that border control is racist or is it just a left-side talking point?

Tue, 2012-09-11 21:09 — jankaas (not verified)

Mon, 2012-09-10 21:37 — jankaas (not verified)

Obama is not the secular liberal champion of democracy. Romney though represents a POV that is so far on the right it is setting a new benchmark.
so the choice is a no brainer, the lesser of 2 evils by a long way is Obama.

Mon, 2012-09-10 23:34 — Fuq Woqs (not verified)

As a Dutch wonga;
you ought know that Obama polish the shoes of him master-controller Dutch.

He play da lip service and drools!

Tue, 2012-09-11 15:30 — jankaas (not verified)

in english pls?

Mon, 2012-09-10 14:10 — AAMVN (not verified)

The debates are going to matter to some voters. Can't see any way Mitt can win them. Even if Ryan looks better than Biden on the night, follow up analysis and fact checking will undo them.

It will be close. These polls are a sign of spring but there will be set backs. Huge Republican warchests are ready to drown out the arguments and debate with a slew of advertising.

Obama has changed some things for the better in US politics - much to the chagrin of Mitt's mobsters. More poor and disadvantaged will vote and more people are better informed about the issues than at any time in history. They cannot control the media like they used to - because of the internet.

Mon, 2012-09-10 13:44 — John Cheese (not verified)

The real poll is November 6th, coming up quickly. Only 2 questions that most voters need answered: 1. How did the incumbent do for the last 4 years? and 2. Is the other guy acceptable? Bams can't talk about # 1. and Mr. Hope & Change will have to resort to lying, going negative, scaring & cheating to hope for # 2. Obama does not have a money advantage in the home stretch so the debates are shaping up to be the battlefield. Obama has gone dirty personal in past campaigns to win & conservatives have Breitbart, so I wonder if there will be any late surprises...

Mon, 2012-09-10 16:50 — chris echo (not verified)

to answer your 2 questions: to anyone but a short sighted fool, it is apparent that Obama has done quite well in the last few years, preventing a true depression.
that alone is a conservative element, and is enough for many people to say: he gets another chance.

Mon, 2012-09-10 18:48 — matthew fox (not verified)

Romney flip flop on the Affordable Healthcare Act is going to hurt him. One minute he wanted to scrap it, the next, he is going to embrace parts of the legislation.

The Right just can't respect a person of colour being President.

Mon, 2012-09-10 19:53 — John Cheese (not verified)

Matthew: Always shocks me how the "tolerant" left continues to focus on race?...can you give it a rest? Most would rather be beyond race. It is disrespectful to all capable people...

Tue, 2012-09-11 00:24 — BKWANAB (not verified)

Yes, we'd rather race was not an issue but it is. Here in the USA race is very much an issue. It's just that few people will even discuss it. They'd like to believe it's gone away, but it hasn't. Ask and minority person. Racial issue are lurking just around every corner and sometimes they appear but are disguised behind poverty, religion, residency, geography and all manner of other prejudicial ways.

Tue, 2012-09-11 03:26 — John Cheese (not verified)

Stark comparison: 95% of blacks vote for the black candidate- not an issue. But a very poor performance President w/over 8% unemployment (actually way over that) for over 42 consecutive months, forced nationalization of healthcare & the forced intervention of GM to the tune of $27 billion taxpayer dollars that has enriched the UAW position & made private (middle class) stockholders take a haircut on investments- now those that want him voted out, that's racist!! People are morons!

Mon, 2012-09-10 13:31 — Sun (not verified)

Be careful of polling, it is being manipulated to high heaven by certain outfits.

That Ohio Poll you are quoting from PPP, who are Dem pollsters paid for by Kos and Seiu unions has samples of Dem 41/Gop37, ind 21, now considering Ohio in 2010 was Gop 37/Dem 36/Ind 26, its an oversample of the electorate which is more likely to be like 2010 than 2008,, polls can made to look what ever you want them to look like. Funny Gallup has also suddenly changed track after being threatened with a lawsuit from the DOj and David Axelrod.

Yes Obama may have had a bounce, most do but to think such a bounce will last is silly, they never do. they have not evn moved to likely voter systems instead of the "all" voters samples they are using now.

Yes and the Uni of Colardo who has predicted every single winner of the election since in started in 1980 by using the economic and statistical model has said Romney will win, we can all cherrypick what we want to hear but with the economy in the toilet and the ridiculous job numbers, anyone would be nuts to think any bounce would last or hold.

Mon, 2012-09-10 11:14 — M .Wenzl (not verified)

Fingers crossed!

Mon, 2012-09-10 11:13 — Michael Jackson (not verified)

Yea, I have put on my new suit this morning, I think, it looks, a bit like I am wearing the skin of a bear draped over my shoulders, and, it is such a hot day, the beads of perspiration are forming on my brow.