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Can François Hollande begin a centre-left revival?

The French presidential election will show whether the European left is bouncing back or in possibly

By Ben Fox Published 06 April 2012 11:51

French Socialist presidential candidate François Hollande waves as he speaks during a campaign meeting in Nimes, southern France. Photograph: Getty Images.

If 2011 was a tough year wherever you were it truly was annus horribilis for the European left - a year of frustration and failure. Frustration as the conservative politicians who lead most European governments spectacularly mishandled the eurozone debt crisis and persisted with co-ordinated austerity programmes that have pushed many countries back into recession and driven unemployment to frightening new levels. Disappointment as socialist governments in Spain, Portugal and elsewhere were toppled from power - collateral damage from the sovereign debt crisis.

From the high point in the late 90s when Blair, Schroeder, Prodi and Jospin set the terms of debate in European politics, the centre-left has now been reduced to impotence in opposition, in power in a mere handful of countries. Although Europe is still embroiled in an economic crisis which originated in the financial sector, social democratic parties rather than their conservative rivals have been the ones to suffer at the hands of the electorate

Incumbency did not help. The governments of Gordon Brown and Spain’s Jose Zapatero were routed because they presided over the boom and then were blamed for the extent of the bust. But, more profoundly, the economic collapse created an identity crisis which social democrats are still wrestling with. Having embraced market economics, light touch regulation and a managerial style of politics in the 1980s and 90s, many centre-left parties have found themselves in political no man’s land – outflanked on the economy by liberals and conservatives and on social policy by the hard-left.

Indeed, although social democrats in Denmark and Slovakia have taken power in the past few months, the defeat of the Zapatero government in Spain meant that the Prime Ministers of the five biggest EU countries – Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain – are all conservative.

But is the political tide about to turn in France?

With six weeks until the first round of voting, François Hollande is very well placed to become just the second socialist to get the keys to the Elysee Palace in over half a century. Although Nicolas Sarkozy is a formidable campaigner and has improved his opinion poll numbers in recent weeks, the evidence suggests that he is picking up votes from National Front supporters rather than from the centre. Every poll so far has Hollande ahead by between six-ten points in the second ballot.

The French presidential election has taken on huge importance for the rest of Europe as well as France. The ‘Merkozy’ hegemony has led the response to the eurozone debt crisis, so it did not come as a surprise when Angela Merkel publicly endorsed Sarkozy’s re-election bid. But a similar axis of the left has emerged during the campaign. Last month, Hollande shared a platform with Ed Miliband during a campaign visit to London even if, in truth, they don’t have much in common politically. However, more robust support has come from Sigmar Gabriel, the leader of the German SPD. Both Miliband and Gabriel will be acutely aware that if the French left cannot win against a hugely unpopular President who has presided over five years of economic decline, their own election prospects will fade as well.

In Gabriel’s case ideology as well as pragmatism is at play. The Franco-German axis has dominated European politics in the past few years, with the 'Merkozy' inspired fiscal compact treaty the shining example. However, we are gradually starting to see a coherent alternative from Hollande and Gabriel. Both have criticised the fiscal compact treaty, with Hollande promising to re-negotiate if he is elected, and Gabriel threatening to oppose parts of it in the Bundestag. They have also pointed out the glaring omission from the treaty, namely, the absence of any measures to promote economic growth and create jobs. We could expect to hear demands for a growth and jobs pact from a Hollande presidency.

Moreover, last summer, during the negotiations on the EU’s new economic governance framework, they signed up to a pan-European campaign ‘Let’s change Europe’ which, among other things, called for a financial transactions tax, Eurobonds and an embryonic common fiscal framework, while also decrying the “economic and social decline brought about by blind austerity policies.” Although hardly a manifesto, here are the building blocks for a revitalised European left.

The irony of post-debt crisis Europe has been that while the terms of economic debate have shifted firmly to the left, the centre-right has established a clear narrative that has driven economic policy at national and EU levels. From Berlin, London, Paris, Rome and Madrid, the mantra is the same - the debt crisis is solely the result of reckless governments over-spending and a diet of budget cuts and tax rises offers the only route to recovery.

Yet, perversely, there is little public support for co-ordinated austerity and common agreement about the need to re-balance our economy away from relying on financial services and revulsion at the excesses, and incompetence, of the self-appointed masters of the financial universe. In the past two years a raft of financial sector regulation has, most notably, banned uncovered short-selling, put in place limits on bank bonuses and regulated the derivatives market. Merkel and Sarkozy have even driven plans for a financial transactions tax – itself a policy that would have been dismissed out of hand just a few years ago.

For the past two years conservatives and liberals across Europe have tried an economic experiment that has been an abject failure, but have been allowed to do so virtually unchallenged by social democrats who have been confused and in retreat. Faced with a lost decade of austerity induced economic stagnation and social unrest, the fight-back needs to start and the French elections will offer a clear indication of whether the European left is bouncing back or in possibly terminal decline. The stakes are high. If Hollande and the Parti Socialiste cannot win when the political odds are stacked in their favour, then the prospects for their sister-parties here and elsewhere will look increasingly bleak.

Ben Fox is chairman of GMB Brussels and political adviser to the Socialist vice-president of economic and monetary affairs.

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Tags: French presidential election François Hollande Europe

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30 comments

Tue, 2012-10-09 11:25 — burghee22 (not verified)

It is well within the rights of anyone to make a complaint that they feel is worthy of discussion. What truly determines the conversational value of a topic is whether or not anyone responds to it. In essence, it is only my response (and future responses) that validate your words here. If no one reads and no one cares, then you might as well have been speaking to yourself.

Wed, 2012-07-11 18:30 — MarlandSantoso

You can make all the old and stupid French jokes that you want. However, you can't deny that when people need to protest, they don't screw around. Yes, torching cars isn't the brightest thing to do. Despite that, they do what's necessary. Meanwhile in the U.K. (to an extent) and in the States, many have weird hangups about socialism. We don't want Obama's "socialist " health care. Right. How then do you explain the post office, fire and police services, the military, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security? Should we scrap all those as well? http://www.squidoo.com/best-top-load-washing-machines

Mon, 2012-06-04 15:44 — samtheman (not verified)

Impossible that he can begin a revival of anything. Two things which he said meant that he wnet down in my view. One is he called for Assad to go and showed complete ignorance of the Syria situation. Like Sarkozy he should concentrate on looking after the 5 miillion North African immigrants in his country. Secondly I was appalled by his unconditional support for Israel. I fail to undertstand the French Left's love for the brutal state of Israel!!!!

Thu, 2012-05-24 10:25 — Iahn Gurd (not verified)

Many of the southern European socialist parties need to reform and accept things like pension age reform as you can't still retire at 55-60 when everyone is living 10-20 years longer.
They need to learn to combine economic dynamism with a strong welfare state and public services.

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Sun, 2012-04-22 04:37 — mbrecker (not verified)

Actually, the French left has never really been in decline. Many conservatives talk about "entitlements". France and other countries have to make drastic cuts. Yet, what they don't answer this question. If a social safety net is so bad, why wasn't the NHS abolished long ago and replaced with a worthless Stateside style system? Because even a Tory like Cameron knows that if he dared to try that millions would try to storm 10 Downing.

Fact: France has one of the most consistently highly rated health care systems in the world. There has to be a reason for that. Can you really see a new French President radically changing that? It won't happen.

Wed, 2012-04-11 19:03 — Barry Ewart (not verified)

Hayek Neo-liberalism is a con and fits neatly into the values of the rich and powerful and inherited wealth. Social democrats need 2 get off their knees and stop being afraid of Big Business and TNCs - it is the labour of the working billions which creates the wealth and makes societies work! A 30 hour working week without loss of pay - create millions jobs young. Earlier retirement, decent pensions, decent and affordable homes for all - all tenures. Free HE, free pubic transport. Tax richest 1,000 UK have £400b between them, tax the rich, windfall taxes big business and banks, close tax loopholes rich - £125b per year. End tax relief private health, education, charitable status public schools, end m class tax subsidies - are subsidised on practically everything. Massive state intervention and subsidies vacuuous m class, Market focces for the rest. The Left/Centre Left could always win by appealing to the wclass and progressive m class!

Mon, 2012-04-09 21:05 — M .Wenzl (not verified)

Some of the authors of comments here are remarking on the need for a 'real left'. What would this resemble? Resources and wealth are finite -- so how can the 'real left' channel these in such a way that economies become sustainable? The 'real left' need to credibly answer these questions before they can provide a serious alternative to the political norms at the moment. Moralistic rhetoric isn't enough.

Tue, 2012-04-10 18:15 — M. E. (not verified)

"Resources and wealth are finite" exactly, that's why we need a better distribution, since the wealth has doubled since the 80s, this is not sustainable, we need a better distribution, so that more money goes into the real economy, so that more money can be used to social and green projects and progress, so that quality and ecological food can increase, more quality, less quantity, so that we get the transformation needed for a sustainable development where cooperation is more important than destructive competition that destroys our planet.

Wed, 2012-04-11 17:06 — M. Wenzl (not verified)

Agreed but I fear this may be a pipe dream. Also, I don't think competition is necessarily a dirty word if a climate of relative economic equality between individuals exists.

Mon, 2012-04-09 09:34 — rain (not verified)

The markets have to think that there is a clear plan to implement reform in order to reduce the deficit. If the market has any doubt that there is no plan to reduce the deficit, then Hollande and the left in France have problems. Hollande's pledge to implement a 75% top rate of tax for high earners would only accelerate the French economic decline. Francois Hollande pretends that he will balance his budget by 2017, in fact if you look at the exact small-print, he is expecting growth after 2013 to be 2.5%/2.7%, which has never been achieved in France for many. The danger for the left across Europe is: if Francois Hollande fails to stabilize the French economy, and French unemployment rockets. It won’t just be the left in France that will find itself in terminal decline.

Mon, 2012-04-09 10:37 — M. E. (not verified)

Wrong. We need to get the guts to be inspired by Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and all the other progressive countries in Latin America to seize the moment. We need to stop being coward sheep.

Mon, 2012-04-09 19:58 — Sam2012 (not verified)

Venezuela is a mess and Argentina is soon to be a mess. Do you actually know what's going on in this countries?

Brazil is very different to Venezuela and Argentina. It's a moderate social democracy that is generally pro-free trade and is making much more progress than Venezuela or Argentina. You need to understand South America better because Brazil has more in common with Chile, Peru and Uruguay than Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua and that hard left crowd that's screwing up their countries.

Tue, 2012-04-10 18:08 — M. E. (not verified)

Yes and I know what's going on in Honduras... In Argentina it was terrible, then they stood up against IMF and the likes, now more people are in work, bosses who earlier fired a lot of people are out of work. fine by me.

then again, one has to do in each country in a way adapted to each country. Chavez came to power and stayed in power in Venezuela despite having the media overwhelmingly against him and the movement he represents, because he stopped being afraid of the media, stopped being afraid of the Das Kapital and actually won and kept the people's trust against a rotten establishment. This is how the social democrats came to power once in for example Sweden - because they weren't afraid of the conservative forces and media, whereas now they are and have lost all contact with and strangled the movement they once represented.

in Sweden and elsewhere in Europe, we now need new movements to ignite what's needed to reduce inequalities and create a fairer and more democratic society, and this will happen once again against the establishment's more and more evidently rotten propaganda. Because in our societies, democracy and media cease to exist as they should when there is no one there, denouncing the suffering in society and putting politics in the public sphere to deal with it.

Mélenchon seems to have understood that one doesn't need to flirt with the media that in our societies have become more and more linked to Das Kapital and the interests of the upper class, that once again one has to fight for something one believes in and that it can actually be easier today than before, with Internet and alternative sources, as long as we start going out in the street and demonstrate and organise the resistance like before, let it be seen and heard how our societies moce towards a black hole, then - like before - the movement will reach such levels that it will get to power whatever links media may have to the upper class and its interests.

This is what a fair society and democracy needs, resistance, a stop to neverending inequality growth, a stop to wild and insane exploitation, production and consumption.

Sorry, but the progressives in Latin America are leading the way, not in a perfect fashion, in a dangerous world still dominated by the upper class logic, but they have shown that there is no fatality, that one doesn't need to be friends with the media and the upper class to achieve political breakthroughs. something we seem to have forgotten in Europe for a while - but now we are reminded.

Sun, 2012-04-08 20:38 — Barry Ewart (not verified)

The Left in Europe need 2 champion a shorter working week and earlier retirement to create jobs 4 young people. Read in The Times that the rich in Greece have shifted assets worth 129b euros out of Greece and what is the Greece bailout - 120b euros! Ordinary people are being made 2 pay 4 the bankers mess. The left in Greece should call for taxes on the rich, windfall taxes on Greek Big Business, taxes on banks and bankers. There is hope if the left makes a common cause. There is an alternative.

Tue, 2012-04-24 09:29 — eric nueman (not verified)

The idea of reform for economic problems as great as seen in Greece or Spain are unparallelled in European history!
In my view there has to be a reset button built in! There must be a point when there is total all out forgiveness when bankers have broken the legal rules! Passing the blame to the general public is irresponsible, just taking the easy way out for the criminals still in control!
Getting rid of the perpetrators is and absolute!
Instead we see the opposite where the people suffer! Why? The New world order use pressure over the populations to cause them to eventually be so desperate they receive the new cashless society for the sake of positive change! Simply this boils down to the rich manipulating the poor for their global aspirations to come to bare! --e

Mon, 2012-04-09 20:57 — M .Wenzl (not verified)

New taxes are a waste of time unless the Greek government actually sorts out the country's broken tax infrastructure. Not only that, but on a more general level, progressive taxes are far more difficult to implement successful these days due to the fact that capital accumulated by high earners is so mobile.

Tue, 2012-04-10 18:11 — M. E. (not verified)

and who thought you this fatalism, what interests does this "logic" serve?... no, Latin America shows us that it's possible, reminds of what we once did ourselves in our societies, did something against the rotten development against all odds...

Wed, 2012-04-11 16:53 — M. Wenzl (not verified)

'Latin America' is a vague term. If you're using Venezuela and Argentina as paradigms, then your logic is questionable. Complacency vis a vis economic reform (no, I'm not talking about free market reform) and corruption has made resulted in Argentina clinging in the buoy that is its commodity exports market -- but this won't last forever. Venezuela is a dysfunctional state, with a corrupt political superstructure and rampant crime -- don't be fooled into thinking that it's the ideal Marxist state, because it isn't. Brazil is promising but the signs are that it is gradually moving towards liberalisation -- ditto the 'success stories' of Uruguay, Peru, etc.

My point is that protectionism isn't the answer. It's all very good to talk about raising the top rate of tax to 75% but the point is the world is now a globalised economy, whether we like it or not. There's no changing it. Capital is mobile -- the only way to get around this issue is by the major 'safe' economies adopting the same tax rules, which is unlikely to happen. The alternative of cutting ourselves off risks bungling long-term growth.

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Sat, 2012-04-07 11:33 — M. E. (not verified)

Ridiculous, Hollandreo campaigns on a program that in no way deals with the challenges of our time, the need to stop with nuclear at a time when the whole planet is under threat of the fuel pools of Fukushima, the need to encourage cooperation rather than destructive competition, the need to move away from the dictatorship of the capitalist system. In fact, he's even more to the right than Papandreo was in the election that brought him to power, and considering that Papandreo's party ended up in an unelected government with the extreme right, one can only imagine where a victory of Hollande will lead France...

This article is consistently ignoring Mélenchon and the Front de Gauche and the amazing connection they've had in this election, climbing in the polls, connecting with people, something's in the air... People more and more realise the need for social and environmental justice. Mélenchon might be the next president, and even if he's not, what the Front de Gauche and Mélenchon have connected with may very well forebode a real change, as may the Occupy movement, if not immediately, sooner or later...

I notice the author is part of "The GMB Brussels Branch is the only Trade Union which represents MEP Assistants and stagiaires of all nationalities and all political groups" (gmbbrusselsbranch.eu/) and as a "political adviser to the Socialist vice-president of economic and monetary affairs" in Brussels I'm sure he does his best to serve the capitalist system... that is, he's just as "socialist" as Hollande, Blair and co... it's all about spin for those people, isn't it? I'm sure he can find a position in an advertisement company in the future...

Sat, 2012-04-07 10:22 — Worry01 (not verified)

I did not see much in this article in the way of a proposal aside from a more centralized and autocratic European Union. Is that anything more than effectively accelerating the denationalization of Europe? How does making the public even more irrelevant to politicians and civil servants enhance democracy? Your country may retain its Bundestag, Chamber of Deputies, or National Assembly, but they will be little more than rubberstamp bodies with few residual powers after Brussels and Strasbourg are finished with them. The weightiest matters left to the old national parliaments will consist of things little more significant than parking fines and rubbish removal rates. Is this what Social Democracy is all about?

Sat, 2012-04-07 10:12 — Sam2012 (not verified)

There is no such thing as a European left or European right. Most continental European conservative parties aren't particularly economically liberal. Sarkozy is a socialist economically, where as northern European conseratives are more like modern social democrats. They are pro-market and business and believe in good economic management but also believe in a strong welfare state and redistribution.

As for Hollande, he could be a real blow for the "European left" as some of his economic policies are a disaster and France needs vital reform in some areas. I'm actually quite worried about France because the far right has a strong base in France and that could well increase with the failure of Hollande and the political elite in general to reform France's economy.

Sat, 2012-04-07 11:45 — M. E. (not verified)

What's needed is a change of system, whereas you seem to take the current system and its frames for granted. Here we are living under the threat of the fuel pools of Fukushima, hoping that they will stay sufficiently intact for the three years during which one hopes to take care of them as good as possible, and some people are still talking about the need to change the age of retirement upwards instead of changing un unsustainable system. This economic system just cannot go on, have way too many dark corners, destroys way too much. Eva Morales seems to have some understanding of that... We need a just society which is sufficiently efficient to avoid the kind of wild exploitation, production, consumption and inequality that we see today.

Sat, 2012-04-07 10:47 — Worry01 (not verified)

I would say that the welfare state in its current form needs to be reconsidered. For example, would a small increase in a child allowance be worth more than a serious reduction in the VAT? The VAT is very regressive and hits lower income people the hardest, since they consume most of their income. I would say that a VAT reduction would improve the living standard for those at the bottom much more than selectivce handouts or allowances applicable only to some. It would be nice to help the poor out without the strings governments like to attach to further their own goals. Things like that should be discussed.

The problem is that European political parties exist in a very small universe in which only the smallest public policy changes are deemed to be tolerable. You have entrenched interest groups on the left and right who are accustomed statist control, and have benefited from it mightly. You could compare this situation to the alliance of upper class bourgeois, nobles, and higher clerics shortly before the French Revolution. Louis XV and Louis XVI tried mightly over the decades to change things, but kept running into an upper class aliance or wall of privilege. This glacier held back pressures and forces for seventy-four years before breaking up. As you might recall, that breakdown was not a pleasant affair for France or the Rest of Europe. The present elites in Europe are attempting to contain what they dimly perceive to be a potential disaster, just at their ancestors did.

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Fri, 2012-04-06 23:08 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

The European Left is the European Union, isn't it?

Sat, 2012-04-07 08:12 — Herbert (not verified)

Chancellor Merkel doesn't seem to have told about that.

Fri, 2012-04-06 13:51 — Herbert (not verified)

'Socialist' governments in Spain and Portugal? You're joking, aren't you? And why this sliding from the beginning between centre-left and left? E Hart s right - what we need is a real left.

Fri, 2012-04-06 13:04 — E Hart (not verified)

Tides, political and otherwise, always turn. The centre-right dominance you mention is but a passing default position for an electorate short-changed by centre-left parties but with nowhere else to turn - yet. When they realise that "expansionary austerity" is a disaster they will revert to the other default position - centre-left.

What France needs, like the rest of Europe, is a political system that represents its people rather than a corrupt, self-serving elite and its corporate carpet-baggers. They and we might have to wait a very long time for that.