Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

My election predictions

Deep breath. Here we go.

By Mehdi Hasan Published 06 May 2010 22:59

Here they are, in no particular order:

* No party will gain an overall majority -- parliament will be hung. (Seeing as how I predicted a hung parliament nearly a year ago, it would be odd to pull back from that prediction now.)

* Ed Balls will retain his Morley and Outwood seat.

* Turnout will be higher than 70 per cent -- again, a prediction I made a while ago (on LBC, in an interview with Iain Dale!) and one I'm sticking with.

* The Conservatives will emerge as the largest single party.

* Labour will come second, not third in the popular vote. Its vote share and number of seats will exceed the 1983 totals.

* Gordon Brown will still be PM at 1pm on Friday.

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8 comments

Fri, 2010-05-07 10:30 — Roshan (not verified)

Well I think those were pretty safe predictions, not exactly sticking your neck out. I predict the Pope will still be Cathiolic next week.

Apart from Balls - that was a good call. But how can he be Labour leader now with such a tiny majority?

And wrong on turnout.

Nex time some real predictions please. Whose going to be PM in a month's time, for example.

Fri, 2010-05-14 16:16 — Alex Trembath (not verified)

I disagree entirely with the comment above, I thought you put in a very effective performance on Question Time. I find it inspiring to see someone speak with such passion and conviction, and I certainly didn't perceive it as 'ranting'.

Fri, 2010-05-07 16:24 — vanrisszcu

Roshan - I predicted a hung parliament a year ago. Until the night before last, most pollsters and politicians were predicting a tiny Tory majority. So happy to stick my neck out be vindicated.

You, like so many else, have a short memory...

Fri, 2010-05-14 18:07 — sarah abrahams (not verified)

actually i was pretty impressed with the qt performance ...used to religiously buy new statesman and society so many years ago..didnt bother in the never had it so good times under brown... and mr hassan just reignited my interest inthis periodical... who is this young man?

Fri, 2010-05-14 10:29 — bob hoskins (not verified)

How can anyone have a serious debate with you? You're just rude, angry and obnoxious.

You weren't the only one to predict a hung parliament and you certainly haven't stuck your neck out with those predictions.

If you ever want your relevant points to be taken seriosuly then you need to calm down a touch in your debating style.

Ranting is fine for blogs but not in a national forum like Question Time. You just sounded bitter.

And that's coming from a labour voter by the way.

Sat, 2010-05-08 08:39 — bernard2

THE IMPORTANT THING NOW IS CLEGG DOSENT GIVE CAMRON POWER , KISS pr VOTEING GOOD BYE IF HE DOES , AND THE NEXT PROBLEM IS ONCE THE TORIE BASTERDS GET POWER THEY WILL NEVER LET IT GO . IF HE GOES WITH CAMRON THE LIB DEMS ARE FINISHED , THEY WILL BE FIGHTING THE NEXT ELECTION UNDER FPTP . CAMRON WILL CALL ANOTHER ELECTION WHEN WELL AHEAD IN THE POLLS ANDIT WILL BE UNDER FIRST PASSED THE POST . GLEGG AND THE LIBS BETTER BE CAREFULL .BEFORE THEY SUP WITH THE DEVIL,THE CONSERVITIVES.

Sat, 2010-05-08 08:41 — bernard2

WHAT HAPPEND TO THE LIB DEMS ON ELECTION DAY IS THE THE CONS INCREASED THEIR VOTE ALWAYS WHEN THE CONS DO WELL THE LIBARELS DONT DO AS WELL , THATS ALWAYS THE CASE, FOR GENREL ELECTIONS .

Fri, 2010-05-07 01:49 — 2yyiam1

Turning out to be right so far. But what's all this business about the Queen not meeting anyone till after lunchtime and how a hung parlament could be embarassing for her?