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22 April 2020updated 26 Jul 2021 7:37am

Latest worldwide death stats suggest peak has passed, but not in the US

By Nicu Calcea

The latest figures for Covid-19 deaths across the countries hit hardest by the virus suggest the peak of the pandemic has passed – but the data from the US paints a very different picture.

A quarter of all worldwide Covid-19 deaths have occured in the US, and the rising death rate there has pushed the global trend upwards over the past week. 

In Europe, early trends show that the peak might have already passed. Both Italy and Spain appear to be witnessing a slow but steady decline in the number of new deaths registered every day.

The picture is less clear in the UK and France, where the numbers of new deaths fluctuate from day to day but are generally trending downwards.

While every nation is giving regular updates on deaths linked to the virus, it can be difficult to interpret this data. Daily death totals are volatile and can fluctuate; countries can change the time they report, or their methodology, leading to abrupt shifts.

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In the charts below, we smooth out the data by using a rolling three-day average of deaths. Each day is plotted against the average number of new deaths reported over the previous three days. The percentage increases (or decreases) are plotted separately.

The charts cover the countries with the highest number of deaths overall, excluding China – where daily confirm deaths have slowed to a trickle – and Iran, where the data may not be reliable. The charts start at the point each country passed 1,000 Covid-19 deaths in total.

Covid-19 average daily deaths chart 

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