Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Quickfire
15 November 2022

Has the plot to subvert American democracy been averted?

Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates have flopped. Bigly.

By Gabriel Gatehouse

It’s nice to be wrong sometimes. For months I’ve been banging on about a coming storm in the US. Having been so dramatically released at the Capitol in Washington DC on 6 January last year, would the genie that refused to accept election results really be content to creep back into its bottle come the midterms on 8 November? I was pretty sure the answer was no.

But the red tsunami of Republican victories that promised – or threatened – to engulf American democracy turned out to be more of a ripple. The Democrats will retain control of the Senate. Results are still trickling in, and the Republicans may well end up with a slim majority in the House of Representatives. That is all well and good – as it should be in a democracy. Which party ends up controlling Congress is not the point. The point is that the Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates flopped. Bigly.

The New York Times has been tracking the fortunes of hundreds of election-sceptics (those who cast doubt on Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the last presidential election) and outright deniers across the country. The hopeful headline is that out of around 100 of these Republican candidates, fewer than half have been elected, even in races where they were projected to win.

They include Lee Zeldin, who lost his bid to become governor of New York, and who voted against certifying the 2020 election results the day after Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. And Doug Mastriano, a retired colonel who ran for governor of Pennsylvania. He was among the crowd on 6 January, having spent thousands of dollars chartering buses to bring supporters to Washington that day. He and Zeldin not only lost their races but congratulated their victorious opponents.

Had he won the governorship Mastriano would have had the power to appoint Pennsylvania’s secretary of state, who effectively oversees the administration of elections, leading to fears that the democratic result of the next presidential election could be simply overruled by a partisan administration were it not to go the Republicans’ way. In Nevada Jim Marchant, a candidate with links to the QAnon conspiracy theory, promised to “fix it” so that Trump would become president again in 2024. He led a coalition of candidates for secretary of state in various swing states who were similarly defeated at the ballot box. All had been endorsed by Trump.

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. Your guide to the best writing across politics, ideas, books and culture - both in the New Statesman and from elsewhere - sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

So a plot – that doesn’t seem too strong a word – to subvert American democracy seems to have been averted, for now. The big loser appears to be the election-denier-in-chief. Trump has hinted that he will announce today (15 November) whether he intends to stand for the presidency again in 2024. If he does it will no doubt be to the dismay of the Republican establishment, who will probably conclude from these midterm results that Trump is not the vote-winner they thought (or in some cases feared) he was.

Content from our partners
A better future starts at home
How to create an inclusive workplace and embrace neurodiversity
Universal Credit falls short of covering the bare essentials. That needs to change

But remember this: nearly 75 million Americans voted for Donald Trump in 2020. And the majority of them, in poll after poll, maintain he was cheated out of a second term. That belief will not have magically vanished because of a poor showing by Republicans in the midterms. Loyalty to Trump among the Republican base may be enough to secure him the presidential nomination even if (as was the case in 2016) the Republican establishment doesn’t want him as their candidate. Or, if Trump is defeated in the primaries, other Republican candidates may feel the need to perpetuate the stolen election narrative – the “Big Lie” – to secure the nomination. And if that candidate then loses in 2024, what next? The genie is still at large.   

[See also: Is Donald Trump’s domination of the Republicans really under threat?]

Topics in this article : , , ,