If the polls are to be believed, Wales is on course for its first non-Labour government in 27 years after the 7 May Senedd elections. The latest YouGov MRP poll puts Plaid Cymru on course to win 43 seats – just six short of the 49 needed for a majority. According to the same poll, the Green Party is projected to make a breakthrough, winning 10 of the 96 seats on offer (the party currently has no members of the Senedd).
Plaid Cymru and the Green Party should, in theory, be natural allies. Both parties sit to the left of the Labour Party and have recently benefited – in by-elections such as Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton – from being the progressive option for protest voters. There is widespread speculation that the two parties could form some sort of coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangement in the next Welsh government.
But after Tuesday’s Green Party campaign launch, relations between the two parties appear to have soured. Speaking in Cardiff alongside the party’s national leader, Zack Polanski, Anthony Slaughter – the leader of the Welsh Greens – described his party as the “only left-wing party in Wales”. Slaughter also said that the Welsh Greens are ready to be “kingmakers” in the Senedd. Tessa Marshall, a Green candidate in Wales, went further, criticising Plaid Cymru and adding: “Plaid are not a left-wing party.”
This prompted criticism from Plaid Cymru figures. Carrie Harper, a Plaid Cymru Senedd candidate, described the comments as “seriously disappointing”. She added: “Voting Green could let in Reform in many seats across Wales.”
Even so, figures from both parties are privately critical of each other. A Plaid Cymru source warned that it does not help for voters to assume the result on 7 May will be a Plaid-Green coalition.
In preparation for government, Plaid Cymru officials have reportedly been speaking to counterparts in the SNP to learn from their experience of governing in Scotland. This has included lessons from the SNP’s cooperation agreement with the Scottish Greens (a separate party from the Green Party of England and Wales). Though no formal talks between Plaid Cymru and the Greens have taken place, Plaid is treading cautiously.
The Greens appear similarly wary. A Green Party source told the New Statesman that the party would approach any deal with Plaid Cymru with clear red lines. They too have been in contact with Scottish counterparts. The source said: “When the SNP started watering things down, the Scottish Greens walked away from government. It’s not about getting a seat at the table for us – it’s about delivering real change.”
Tension is inevitable when both parties are competing for a similar set of voters. Briefings and counter-briefings are typical in the run-up to an election. But if the polls are correct, then after 7 May, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Greens may have little choice but to cooperate to form a stable government in Cardiff Bay.
[Further reading: The Greens who want to drill the North Sea]
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