The list that proves Theresa May cannot pass a Brexit deal

The number of Tories who have resigned from the government payroll alone – to say nothing of backbenchers – is far bigger than the number of potential Labour rebels. 

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It is at this point abundantly clear that Theresa May does not have enough Conservative votes to secure a Commons majority for her Brexit deal. Nor can she rely on the ten MPs of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Her only hope lies in convincing enough Labour MPs to back her Withdrawal Agreement come the meaningful vote. It does not take long, however, to reach the incontrovertible conclusion that it’s a forlorn one.

The number of Tory MPs who have resigned from the government payroll over Brexit alone is bigger than the number of Labour MPs who could realistically be expected to rebel – and as this list gets bigger, the chance of Downing Street convincing opposition MPs to vote with May gets smaller still.

  • Steve Baker
  • Guto Bebb
  • Ben Bradley
  • Suella Braverman
  • Conor Burns
  • Maria Caulfield
  • Rehman Chishti 
  • Robert Courts
  • David Davis
  • Chris Green
  • Ranil Jayawardena
  • Andrea Jenkyns
  • Boris Johnson
  • Jo Johnson
  • Phillip Lee
  • Scott Mann
  • Esther McVey
  • Dominic Raab
  • Anne-Marie Trevelyan
  • Shailesh Vara

That makes 20 as good as nailed-on votes against the Withdrawal Agreement. Add to that the 10 DUP MPs and you have 30 – to say nothing of the many more Conservative backbenchers who have also signalled that they will vote against it too or have submitted no-confidence votes in Theresa May.

The number of Tory MPs who have publicly declared that they have submitted letters to Graham Brady is currently running at 26. For our purposes 22 – that number minus Baker, Bradley, Green and Jenkyns, who all resigned from the payroll – is the number that matters. 

  • Peter Bone
  • Andrew Bridgen
  • Bill Cash
  • Maria Caulfield
  • Simon Clarke
  • Philip Davies
  • Nadine Dorries
  • James Duddridge
  • Mark Francois
  • Zac Goldsmith
  • Philip Hollobone
  • Marcus Fysh
  • Adam Holloway
  • David Jones
  • Anne-Marie Morris
  • Sheryll Murray
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • Laurence Robertson
  • Lee Rowley
  • Henry Smith
  • Ross Thomson
  • Martin Vickers
  • John Whittingdale

That makes 53. Separately, 44 others have signalled that they will not vote for the Withdrawal Agreement in recent days.

  • Heidi Allen
  • David Amess
  • John Baron
  • Crispin Blunt
  • Christopher Chope
  • Damian Collins
  • Richard Drax
  • Steve Double
  • Iain Duncan Smith
  • Charlie Elphicke
  • David Evenett
  • Michael Fabricant
  • Michael Fallon
  • Justine Greening
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Sam Gymiah
  • Rob Halfon
  • John Hayes
  • Bernard Jenkin
  • Edward Leigh
  • Andrew Lewer
  • Julian Lewis
  • Julia Lopez
  • Craig Mackinlay
  • Scott Mann
  • Stephen Metcalfe
  • Nigel Mills
  • Andrew Mitchell
  • Damien Moore
  • Matthew Offord
  • Neil Parish
  • Priti Patel
  • Owen Paterson
  • Mike Pennng
  • Mark Pritchard
  • John Redwood
  • Grant Shapps
  • Royston Smith
  • Anna Soubry
  • Bob Stewart
  • Desmond Swayne
  • Hugo Swire
  • Robert Syms
  • Derek Thomas
  • Michael Tomlinson
  • Theresa Villiers
  • Sarah Wollaston

Taken together, that at the very least makes a total of 98. A number of would-be Labour rebels have also signalled that they will not vote for the deal. 

  • James Frith
  • Dennis Skinner
  • Ruth Smeeth
  • Gareth Snell
  • Graham Stringer
  • Kate Hoey
  • Lisa Nandy

If the government's deal cannot convince them, there is absolutely no chance of it convincing anywhere near enough Labour ayes to even make a dent in the number of Conservative and DUP noes. Failure is inevitable.

Patrick Maguire is the New Statesman's political correspondent.