It’s the last headline Labour would want as it starts to look towards the elections in May, but after a flurry of winter surveys, we can now say with certainty: Labour is in third place in the opinion polls.
Over the Christmas period, a number of polls emerged showing Labour falling from second place to third. The polls were fleeting and irregular at first, so the Britain Elects poll tracker wouldn’t take them seriously. But now a more varied series of surveyors are showing it now.
With Reform riding high, it’s not bad to be the anti-Farage option. But that only works when you’re felt to be second to Farage – when you’re the default anti-Farage option. New polling puts doubt on Labour’s claim to that spot.
Here are the numbers. If an election was held today, how would we all vote? Reform is at 29 per cent, lower than in recent months but still in pole position. The Conservative party is at 19 per cent – their best showing in more than six months. Labour is at 18 per cent – a share of support effectively halved since the General Election. The Green party is at 15 per cent – a rise of five points in three months and the closest they’ve ever come to Labour. And the Lib Dems unchanged on 13 per cent, and as a consequence of standing still, in with a chance at a triple-figure seat tally.
In Wales, Labour fell to third during the summer. Wales enters 2026, its election year, with Reform and Plaid Cymru in the lead, pollster dependent. Labour’s slippage had great effect in the Caerphilly by-election. Once it became apparent that only Plaid Cymru could keep Reform out, Labour voters move near wholesale to the publicly established anti-Farage option. Voters were smiling apologetically to Labour canvassers on the doorstep. “I’m sorry, but I want to stop Reform. You guys are losers here.”
It looks like the May 2026 Senedd election will see Labour, so dominant in the land for so long, coming a distant, distant, third, with even First Minister Eluned Morgan on course to lose her seat.
In the UK as a whole, it’s the Conservatives who have overtaken Labour for second place. How did that happen? A Despatch Box performance in the House of Commons swayed public opinion. Kemi Badenoch, Conservative leader and relative non-entity in public opinion terms, was effectively in the right place at the right time. The Autumn Budget ended up being the most noticed UK political news story of the year (I’m surprised too). Badenoch’s savage derision, delivered as soon as Reeves took her seat, broke through. Badenoch’s approvals bounced, and so did the Tory party’s ratings against Labour on the economy.
So: Labour in third, and the Tories back in front of Labour. Five years ago, the opposition leading the government would be much more newsier than it is today. It’s a multi-party world now. The Tories might lead Labour on the economy, yes, but more than 50 per cent of the public believe neither legacy party can effectively represent them.
That’s the highest disaffiliation in recent history. It’s the highest since the launch of our poll tracker. Voting intentions come and go. They move with the wind. It’s fundamental metrics of the economy that can often be telling of a party’s position with the public. And the lesson from this is thus: Conservative vs Labour has never looked less relevant.
[Further reading: Labour must confront capitalism again]
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