Andy Burnham has a ten-point lead over Reform, according to the latest constituency poll from Makerfield by Survation. Widening from a slender three points a few weeks back to this more commanding lead may Labour homes. But the survey also exposes something less obvious: the gender divide.
Andy Burnham’s lead among Makerfield’s women is emphatic, while among men he’s neck and neck with Reform’s Robert Kenyon. But here’s the kicker: voter uncertainty is lower among women than it is among men in the poll. That’s not normal. Typically women tend to be more uncertain about their preferences in opinion polls. In voting intention surveys the world over women are more likely to answer “don’t know”. So what could be behind it?
For Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s comments on abortion to feature so highly in a by-election campaign is unusual in mainland Britain. “Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” reads one X post. And “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument” reads another, in response to someone else. These aren’t sentiments often wheeled out by a candidate at election time. It’s a fringe view, even among voters on the right. Similarly, Kenyon’s comments about Carol Vorderman have been much publicised, with Kenyon refusing to apologise for them in an appearance on Question Time on Thursday (5 June).
Still, Makerfield will be a hard fight for Labour. Britain Predicts’s demographic analysis shows how favourable the constituency is to the Reform brand. Even in scenarios where, nationally, Labour wins a majority, Makerfield still votes Reform.
But Survation recording a Labour share even greater than the 2024 landslide throws a spanner in that analysis. Could misogyny sink Reform? We shall see very very soon.
[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s door-knock to Downing Street]
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Subscribe here to commentI thought Reform was carefully vetting the social media history of its candidates? Whoever they’re paying to do it either: a) isn’t doing a very good job or b) is deliberately stitching them up.
Alternatively, if Reform did know about these tweets, you’d have thought their man would have a better response ready for the criticism.
Craven comments of “oh it was 15 years ago” or trying to walk back the tweets don’t really cut it. They don’t satisfy the people who don’t like the tweets and they make you look weak to your own supporters. You’ve got to own it.
He could have said something like, “I expressed myself clumsily but I stand by the essence of what I said. 90% of abortions in Britain are elective, so by definition it is being used as a means of birth control. I don’t think that is what abortion should be for and I would welcome a national conversation on the topic.”
“Even in scenarios where, nationally, Labour wins a majority, Makerfield still votes Reform.”
Is this an appropriate seat for a Prime Minister in waiting?! – maybe faced next time with a better-chosen Reform candidate and a Reform version of past “decapitation strategies”?