It was Labour’s touted welfare cuts that made all the difference for Reform in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in May, which the party won off Labour by a whisker. And now after a series of U-turns and threatened rebellions, the welfare bill has passed, but it is now stuffed so full of question marks and concessions that literally no one is happy. Happy anniversary, Labour.
YouGov’s snap poll found four-in-ten of us approved of the government’s climb down. Three-in-ten say the government was wrong in its approach. The rest don’t know what to think. Maybe they don’t care. In truth, it’s no real advantage either way because seven-in-ten Britons now perceive the Labour party as divided, more so than the Conservatives.
The proposed welfare changes had the support of a quarter of the country. Fine. But the government was proposing a policy most popular among Conservatives, and least popular among Labour, Reform and Green voters. This is not a reason not to do something, of course. Unpopular choices are the scaffolding of governance. But, something to bare in mind at least.
The ballooning welfare bill is unsustainable. With an ageing population, change is no optional luxury. But do the voters see that? As many as half of us think the burgeoning bill is a consequence of people claiming welfare who otherwise shouldn’t be. Just one third recognise it might have something to do with people being in poorer health.
So it the undeserving’s doing, then, the country says. Which is all well and good. But who thinks of themselves as undeserving? Most Britons agree welfare eligibility is not strict enough. But most say welfare is still not supportive enough. So not supportive to those in need, which according to us is the ageing, the disabled, and those on low incomes. People out of work, however? Now there’s some nuance. As many think the out of work have too little support as too much support.
The government’s strategy, in appreciably pursuing the out of work, has touched on those disabled and out of work. This is why voters are so unsympathetic to Labour right now.
The government has emerged scathed and worn from this welfare battle, but still alive. Bound by fiscal rules set by the last lot, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have had to come down harder on a public exhausted from a cost of living crisis. And now, unwilling to counter treasury orthodoxy, Labour’s new government has become the master of its demise.
They are not reading the room. And they are not kidding anyone. The spending review just gone was one of the better received events for Labour of the last few months. At least, relatively speaking. The individual projects got the nod but the voters’ verdict was the same: Who do you think you are kidding, Rachel Reeves? The assertion that the investment announced can be achieved within the current fiscal framework has fallen on deaf ears. Few in the public believe it.
More than two-thirds of the country believe the decisions taken in the spending review cannot be achieved without further borrowing or changes to the tax regime – the two sacred songs of the last government.
Voters don’t want to see tax increases. But voters increasingly see them as inevitable. This Starmer-Reeves regime in saying one thing and convincing the public of the other is over. It’s time to do things differently.
[See more: Annus Horribilis]
Content from our partners
Related
