In 2015 Patrick O’Flynn, Ukip’s then general election campaign director, called Nigel Farage “snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive”. A decade later, it feels just as apt.
Britain’s radical right is no stranger to infighting and civil wars. And so the evolving saga between the Reform head and one of its MPs, Rupert Lowe, does not venture into unfamiliar territory: it has happened, if anything, remarkably late in the day.
Farage treats his parties as though they are absolute monarchies. For insurgent, disorganised movements this can make sense. Clear, ironclad leadership is helpful at the outset, but when graduating to a professional party with a varied membership and multiple competing personalities, squabbling becomes inevitable. Think Robert Kilroy-Silk in 2005, David Campbell-Bannerman in 2011 and Suzanne Evans in 2015: all three in some way came head to head with Farage, and none won.
The important question here is whether the showdown between Farage and Lowe will harm Reform at the polls. Sensible minded people might think it’s inevitable – party splits never help parties. Labour knows that all too well. Online psephologists are wondering whether this row might even stymie Reform hopes of beating Labour in the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election. We shouldn’t get our hopes up.
Reform has broadly been in a tie with Labour for first place in the opinion polls. The party is on 25 per cent of the forecast vote if a general election were held today. And, recent polls taken in the immediacy of the Lowe bust-up show little shift either way.
But the party split (if anyone notices it) might lower their ceiling. The British right is split. And any hopes for Reform to capitalise on it and capture possible Conservative voters will be checked by stories of Reform infighting. The party has the insurgent card on its side: it’s the radical and dynamic party of the right. But if it wishes to eat into the body of voters who seriously aspire for a new government of the right, then this will do them no favours.
It only matters if anyone notices. YouGov finds Farage’s popularity among his base slipped in recent days, but compared to other leaders, he currently leads the most enthused base by far.
The Farage-Lowe saga will not ruin Reform’s favourable polling. It will keep the party on and around 20-something per cent. Which is where they are right now. That is, by the way, more than enough to break the parliamentary arithmetic for any future government, although not enough to win outright.
The very fact that there is noise about Reform and nothing about the Tories might even prompt increased (but temporary) movement to Reform. In this era of apathy, indifference and growing exhaustion with our institutions, this all may be enough to get you a fifth of prospective voters. But to govern? Alone? No. Reform needs to do some growing up.
[See more: Keir Starmer finally has a vision for Britain]
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