Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
  2. Conservatives
4 October 2022

Liz Truss’s tax U-turn has emboldened Tory dissenters

The party conference is a festival of discord and the next fight is brewing over plans to cut benefits.

By Freddie Hayward

Liz Truss’s first Conservative Party conference as Prime Minister should have been a celebration. She should have partied with the Tory members who put her in office – if not with the MPs, most of whom voted for Rishi Sunak. Instead, it’s become a festival of internal discord and division.

Here in Birmingham yesterday the main event was the speech by Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor, after he cancelled the abolition of the 45p top rate of income tax, which had been a key part of his mini-Budget. His speech was riven with contradictions.

The U-turn was an attempt to pacify the government’s rebellious MPs. The trouble for Truss is not over, however. Ben Houchen, the Tory mayor of Tees Valley, has called on the government to reinstate the cap on bankers’ bonuses. Esther McVey, the former work and pensions secretary, has said that plans to cut benefits in real terms would be a “huge mistake”. And now Penny Mordaunt, a member of Truss’s cabinet, has come out against the cuts.

The party’s popularity is collapsing. Our own polling tracker predicts the Conservatives would lose 211 seats in a general election, giving Labour a majority of 142. A veteran rebel MP and architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall believes the very survival of the party is in question. They told me Truss wouldn’t lead the Conservative Party into the next general election and described the mood among their colleagues as a “state of disbelief”. Relatively few Tory MPs are walking the corridors of this byzantine conference centre; many have chosen to stay away. However, forecasts of the party’s failure are not universal. “Like Dracula, they do not die,” an old lobby hand observed. Or as one seasoned pollster put it to me: “What goes down comes back up. A year is a long time in this country.”

While predictions of the party’s demise may be rash, the dividing lines of a post-Truss party are emerging. Michael Gove is traipsing the conference fringe circuit, charming the party faithful with his wit. He appeared at one event on Sunday to discuss “social capitalism”, which stresses the importance of social infrastructure – charities and voluntary groups, parks and town halls – in promoting economic growth and binding the country together. He argued that his party had lent too far into liberalism and neglected its conservative roots.

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Whether Gove is merely causing mischief or beginning a leadership challenge is yet to be seen. In any case, the tax U-turn will embolden the dissenters within the party. Truss has been forced to change tack once, so why not again? That will make her return to parliament next week difficult and underline the precariousness of her position. The upshot is an emaciated government trying to control an unruly party which faces electoral oblivion. My thoughts are with those writing the Prime Minister’s speech for tomorrow.

Content from our partners
Why public health policy needs to refocus
The five key tech areas for the public sector in 2023
You wouldn’t give your house keys to anyone, so why do that with your computers?

This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; subscribe here.

[See also: The next Tory leadership contest has already begun]