With three ministerial walkouts in 24 hours, and rumours of an imminent no-confidence vote, Theresa May’s position is looking precarious.
It’s all speculation at this point, but the bookies are backing Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, back-bench hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg, and recently-departed Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt, Andrea Leadsom, and Dominic Raab are also in with a shout.
Currently Gove and Javid seem to be vying for the top spot, but it’s far from decided.
Importantly, there’s no guarantee yet that any of them will get a chance to push for leadership. First, a mimimum of 48 Tory MPs must call for a no confidence vote in the PM, which she must then lose by a majority vote – neither of which are foregone conclusions. For a more detailed look at the process behind removing a Tory leader, here’s our political editor George Eaton’s rundown of the process.
From May 2018, Stephen Bush does not rate Michael Gove’s chances.
Patrick has also weighed up the likelihood of Jeremy Hunt taking the top job.
If you fancy a long read, here’s Martin Fletcher’s 2018 profile of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
From last December, Julia Rampen’s thoughts on the idea of David Davis as Prime Minister.
And for a taste of how things have changed here’s an overview of the runners and riders from last November.