Three is apparently the magic number when it comes to predicting another global financial apocalypse. Fears of an impending collapse have been ignited by an IMF stability report that cited a “triad” of risks – instability and recession in emerging economies, growing burdens of debt and discord in the eurozone, and fragility in global markets – that combine to offer a telling insight into when the world economy might tank once more. The Bank of England’s chief policymaker, Andy Haldane, has also argued that the emerging-market crisis of 2015 can best be understood as “Credit Crunch: Part Three” (part two being the eurozone wobble of 2014).
Crunchtime
Having spent recent weeks on the road promoting my book Crunch Lit, which examines the impact of the 2008 crash on culture, I think these claims can seem nothing if not a bit predictable. Indeed, given the lack of change since 2007-2008, it’s remarkable that talk of a third-wave financial crisis has taken this long to emerge. We are suffering from a global debt hangover, and no number of credit-bought bacon sandwiches can make it all better. Booms and busts are a cyclical, symptomatic feature of the failure of contemporary capitalism. Many of the toxic practices and cultures that characterised the 2008 crisis not only remain but have been compounded by an over-reliance on anticipated growth in markets (such as China) that has veiled broader economic weaknesses. Although sequels are notoriously ropy, present signals suggest that Credit Crunch III could be every bit as edge-of-the-seat scary as parts one and two.
No Womancession
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 was widely dubbed the “Mancession” as a reflection of the male-dominated composition of the banking sector. Since the crunch, many female financial leaders have united in calling for reform and review. The lethal testosterone of the pre-2007 banking sector even led some to speculate that if women had occupied more top positions in economics and politics, the credit crunch might never have happened. This is why I’m so encouraged by the creation of the Virago/New Statesman Women’s Prize for Politics and Economics, which will be awarded to a new female writer on economics or politics who shows originality and rigorous thinking. Although the irony of a publication called the New Statesman offering this intervention will not be lost on some, the prize nevertheless intends to identify, encourage and promote women writing in male-dominated fields, and will have a judging panel comprising three women and one man. Writings on economics and politics are a reflection of the worlds they capture, worlds in which women remain relatively invisible.
Red Kensington
As a recent returnee to northern climes (I’m originally from Newcastle), I was encouraged to hear that Labour has decided to relocate its HQ outside Westminster. Currently based in Brewer’s Green – a five-minute walk from parliament – the party is being forced to move because of the commercial redevelopment of its rented premises. Yet in a move that would astound even Kirstie Allsopp, it has decided to pick up sticks and move to the Conservative stronghold of Kensington. The average house price in Kensington is £1.4m, and (with an awkward serendipity) the republican Labour leader will now have the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge as his neighbours.
As the move is only temporary, I’d like to use this article to issue an open invitation for the party to head north. The IPPR think tank claims the north is suffering from “devo-disarray”, and who can blame it? In recent months, 38 different cities and regions have submitted bids for more powers but without any sense of what these might be or how it might happen. Giving parliament and parliamentary parties a physical base and presence beyond the capital would be an important step towards figuring it out.
Party up north
Thanks to the post-crash property bubble, northern cities are littered with unoccupied and competitively priced office space. As a self-confessed fan of trains, Jeremy Corbyn will know that Leeds and Manchester are little more than two hours from the capital. So, is it time for Labour to move north? In an
era of austerity and devolution, such a move would address not only cost issues, but also an ongoing tension between the experience of the 99 per cent of the UK and the 1 per cent of Westminster. Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP for Barnsley Central, has called for the creation of a “Northern Powerhouse” in which “the daughter of a cleaner from Kingstone in my constituency will have the same opportunities as the son of a barrister from Kingston-upon-Thames”. But this new “SuperNorth” rhetoric will become a reality only when one of the two main parties takes action to prove that you don’t have to live and work within the M25 to direct debates about the future of the whole country.
Momentum in time
It’s been nearly six months since Corbyn was thrust into the spotlight as a late game-changer in the Labour leadership election. Chairing his Northern Futures campaign policy launch in Leeds back in June, I witnessed the effect his new approach to politics has on young people: very rarely have I had to admonish students for trying to break into a political rally.
Now Jeremy’s urgent challenge is to maintain momentum, not just in the shape of the newly formed Labour organisation of the same name but also in offering workable alternatives. Immigration, the economy and security will define the teenage years of this century, and now is the time to see original interventions from a leader who, this summer, inspired all those of us in search of something different.
Katy Shaw is principal lecturer in contemporary literature at Leeds Beckett University. Her book “Crunch Lit” is published by Bloomsbury
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