17 August 2015

Who’s second in the Labour leadership election?

Cooper's team criticised by all campaigns after claiming new data shows her ahead of Burnham.

(Photo By Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper address delegates at the Progress annual conference in central London on May 16, 2015. Photograph: Getty Images.)

With all in Labour agreed that Jeremy Corbyn is in first place in the leadership election, the battle is on to claim challenger status. Both Andy Burnham and Yvetter Cooper’s campaigns are fiercely briefing that they are in second place. Earlier this evening, Cooper’s team announced that new data showed their candidate ahead of Burnham in every region of the country with the latter in fourth place in London (where a quarter of the selectorate is based). A spokesperson said: “Andy’s campaign is struggling to respond to Jeremy which is why he is changing position from day to day.

“Labour’s chances of winning the next election are at stake here with serious consequences for all those who depend on a labour government. Andy needs to show some leadership and be clear whether he opposes Jeremy or not. Our figures show he will drop out in the second round because his campaign is failing to provide an effective alternative to Jeremy and he is losing first preferences as a consequence. If he isn’t prepared to offer an alternative to Jeremy, he needs to step back and leave it to Yvette. And he should do the right thing by the party and tell people who do still support him to put second preferences for Yvette – something he is still refusing to do.”

In response, however, a Burnham source accused Cooper of “a desperate, panicked stunt” and said it was “completely untrue” that she was second. Well, they would say that, wouldn’t say? But it’s not just Team Burnham briefing their man is second. A rival campaign told me: “Yvette’s team seem to believe that by simply saying something you can make it true. In reality, the only candidate with a shot at catching Jeremy is Andy as he’s ahead of Yvette in every region in the country. The Cooper camp’s spin does party members a disservice at a time when they are trying to make the right choice to save the future of their party.” Sources from all sides have told me that their data, including from the last week (following Cooper’s attack on Corbyn), shows Burnham in second.

But Cooper’s team are standing by their data. They argue that it is in Corbyn and Burnham’s interests to argue that the latter is second (with both fishing for second-preference votes) and that Liz Kendall’s phone-banks are almost “non-existent” rendering their data “pretty worthless”. The most recent YouGov poll, which psephologists regard as more reliable than canvass records, showed Burnham three points ahead of Cooper (21-18) in the first round but tied with her in the second (23-23). Some key Kendall allies, such as John Woodcock and Gloria de Piero, have endorsed Burnham on arithmetical grounds. But others, such as Tristram Hunt and Ivan Lewis, have backed Cooper. Some, believing that Corbyn’s lead is unassailable, have endorsed her in spite of believing that Burnham is ahead. One MP told me that he wanted to punish the latter for “pandering” to Corbyn and for “opportunism”.

The battle for “second” isn’t just significant as an attempt to gain some late momentum. It also reflects the belief that whoever finishes as runner-up to Corbyn (who almost all expect to win) will be best-placed to take over should he fall before the election.

Meanwhile, Cooper’s campaign have accused Burnham’s camp of “everyday sexism” after a source told me that Cooper’s claims were “straight out of the Ed Balls playbook”.

Update: Cooper backer Seema Malhotra has responded to the “Ed Balls playbook” line. She said: “This is a leadership contest and of course there’ll be debate on policy and politics. But Andy needs to stop his team resorting to sexist jibes. It doesn’t help his campaign or the Labour Party.”