New Times,
New Thinking.

  1. Politics
28 July 2015

Does a new poll show Yvette Cooper in second place?

A new leaked poll shows Yvette Cooper in second place against Jeremy Corbyn - but there are reasons to be sceptical.

By Stephen Bush

A new private poll has leaked, once again showing Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour leadership – but this time, Yvette Cooper, not Andy Burnham is the candidate who makes it to the final round. The Mirror’s Jason Beattie has the figures: Corbyn ahead with 42 per cent of the vote, Cooper in second with 22.6 per cent of the vote, Burnham in third with 20 per cent, and Liz Kendall in fourth with 14 per cent. Once again, Corbyn wins, but by a narrower margin than he does if Burnham makes it to the final round, 51-49 against 53-47. 

It will bolster the Cooper campaign’s claim that they, not Burnham, are the true “stop Corbyn” campaign. But the figures are being derided, in private as well as in public, by opponents of the Cooper campaign. “They look like canvass returns to me,” ventured one MP, who is supporting Andy Burnham. “Looks like nonsense,” was the response from one source close to the Kendall campaign.

Who’s right? The figures are certainly genuine but they look more likely to be the product of the Cooper campaign than any reputable pollster. Few pollsters would be able to poll party members to any degree of accuracy. A telephone pollster would be able to but that would be well outside the financial means of any of the leadership campaigns. YouGov’s vast panel is more than capable of producing a poll of Labour members. In any case, all the reputable pollsters say that these figures haven’t been produced by them – although pollsters have a record of denying figures that turn out to be theirs after all.

Ultimately, people will believe what they want to believe. The poll appears to confirm three  hunches of mine – that the Welfare Bill vote crippled Burnham’s chances, that Corbyn is on course to win but that Cooper is best-placed to stop him. That means I’m inclined to believe it, murky origins notwithstanding.  

But the mystery around the poll means that the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be the Corbyn camp: instead of a unified effort by the moderate campaigns to halt the Corbyn juggernaut, a scrap will likely ensue between the Burnham and Cooper teams as to which candidate is best-placed to stop Corbyn.

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how Progressive Media Investments may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Content from our partners
ADHD in the criminal justice system: a case for change – with Takeda
The power of place in tackling climate change
Tackling the UK's biggest health challenges