I’ve long thought that Gordon Brown should avoid the ignominy of an election at the last possible date (3 June). The parallels with John Major would be too uncomfortable.
So I’m not surprised to see a story in today’s Telegraph suggesting that Brown could go to the polls on 25 March. Andrew Porter writes: “Some civil servants have noted that government planning for the period after the end of January is noticeably light, adding to suggestions that No 10 could be planning to call a surprise poll.”
A Conservative source told him: “March is in our minds. Gordon Brown knows he still has a small window to cause some element of surprise.
“We are ready if it happens.”
An early election would allow Labour neatly to avoid breaking its 2005 pledge not to raise income tax during this parliament. The 50p income-tax rate will take effect from April, raising the possibility that the Tories may be forced not merely to tolerate the tax, but actually to introduce it.
The Conservative civil war over Europe that many Labour activists hope for has so far failed to materialise (dissent has come from such token figures as Bill Cash and Barry Legg), but Brown could yet create the conditions for a Tory tax war.
The new tax rate is loathed by many Conservatives, including Boris Johnson, who has described it as an “assault on London” and has accused Labour of waging “class war”. But David Cameron and George Osborne have made it clear that everyone must pay their “fair share”. Labour should take the chance to expose these divisions in an election campaign.
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