The Canadian example

Mark Carney’s election victory has proved that populist advance is not inevitable.

Photo by Dave Chan / AFP via Getty Images

After Donald Trump’s second election victory, some on the right heralded a new era of conservative hegemony. Across the West, the path to victory lay in emulating the Maga playbook, so the narrative ran.

One of those celebrated as a coming star was Pierre Poilievre. Like Mr Trump, the Canadian Conservative leader fused profligate tax cuts with populist stances on crime and immigration. Both Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and her enduring rival Robert Jenrick met him in search of ideological inspiration.

But on 29 April, Mr Poilievre’s career was abruptly terminated. A man once celebrated as a prime-minister-in-waiting ended up losing his parliamentary seat.

The cause of the Conservatives’ stunning downfall was their supposed ally, Mr Trump. At the start of this year they enjoyed a 25-point poll lead over the Liberals. Even Justin Trudeau’s resignation, it was thought, would not be enough to save his moribund party.

But Mr Trump’s rampant protectionism transformed the electoral landscape. His imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and his recurrent threats to annex the country – “the 51st state” – gifted the Liberals a political lifeline.

As the archetypal “Davos Man”, Mark Carney was dismissed by some as a relic. But his combination of defiant patriotism and technocratic expertise resonated with voters – the Liberals won a fourth consecutive term and 43.5 per cent of the vote (though they fell short of a majority). Mr Carney’s national address on 27 March in which he declared that Canada’s “old relationship” with the US was over and called for the country to “fundamentally reimagine” its economy showed that he grasped the immensity of the moment.

There are plenty of progressives who yearn for Keir Starmer to deliver such a speech. But the Prime Minister has been wise to keep quiet. The 10 per cent tariffs imposed on the UK are less severe than those levied on Canada and Mr Trump’s expansionist designs do not extend to Britain. Though condemnation of the US president would offer a moment of liberal catharsis, it would not serve the national interest.

But it does not follow that the UK must remain passive in the face of Mr Trump’s economic arson. Promised concessions to Britain have so far not materialised. Though the UK runs a trade surplus with the US – importing more than it exports – the baseline tariffs are expected to remain in place.

For these reasons, Britain must seek economic alternatives. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, was right to declare that the UK’s trading relationship with Europe is “arguably even more important” than that with the US – though no qualifier was necessary. In 2024, the EU accounted for 41 per cent of all British exports and 51 per cent of imports, far exceeding trade across the Atlantic.

Forging a closer relationship with Europe is both economically and politically essential for Labour. Just 30 per cent of voters now believe the UK was right to leave the EU, according to a recent YouGov poll, while only 11 per cent believe Brexit has been a success.

In this context, the government is wise to pursue an ambitious “reset” with the EU ahead of a joint summit in London on 19 May. As we have previously argued, this should include a youth mobility scheme, granting 18- to 30-year-olds the right to live, work and study on both sides of the Channel for up to four years. Even among an immigration-sceptic public, this policy is backed by 68 per cent, including 53 per cent of Leavers.

Mr Carney’s victory has proved that populist advance is not inevitable. Though the threats to Canadian sovereignty were extraordinary, there are lessons for Labour as it grapples with the rise of Reform. Mainstream politicians will not win if they are merely the defenders of a failed status quo. But they can win by rallying voters against threats to cherished institutions.

Nigel Farage casts himself as the voice of the people but his affinity with Mr Trump – a reviled figure among the British public – and his past support for dismantling the NHS are among his many vulnerabilities. Rather than appearing cowed by Reform’s rise, now is the time for Mr Starmer to be insurgent – and offer an alternative to the politics of grievance.

[See also: Mark Carney enters the arena]