In the end, Donald Trump decided it. On 28 April Canadians elected Mark Carney to be their next prime minister, a dramatic turnaround for his Liberal party, which only eight weeks ago seemed to be headed for a wipeout. At the time of writing it was still unclear whether the Liberals had won enough seats to form a majority government but, nevertheless, Carney will stay on as prime minister.
The Liberals astonishing rebound in the eyes of voters came down to three factors. The first was Justin Trudeau’s resignation. After a decade in power, Trudeau had become deeply unpopular with voters, falling precipitously in opinion polls and dragging his party’s prospects down with him. That Liberal party members chose to replace him with Carney – a political outsider – rather than Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s former deputy and the previous Liberal heir apparent, illustrated just how toxic Brand Trudeau had become for the party. (Trudeau also wisely stepped out of the public eye throughout the campaign.)
Then there was Carney’s main opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Until very recently, Poilievre seemed a certain bet to become Canada’s next leader. As Luke Savage wrote in the New Statesman recently, Poilievre’s belligerent political style seemed like an abrupt change for Canadian politics, as the politician “cut a straightforwardly ideological path to the top job and has maintained this right-wing posture ever since. He successfully captured much of the energy generated by the so-called Freedom Convoy. He has refused to back down on highly controversial and unpopular positions such as defunding Canada’s public broadcaster, CBC, and has planted his flag firmly on the Trump-adjacent right.”
But much of Poilievre’s polling success came down to his attacks on Trudeau and the former prime minister’s policies, which many felt exacerbated the cost of living crisis. Once Trudeau stepped down – and Carney pledged to get rid of some of his most loathed tax policies – Poilievre was perhaps too slow to pivot to a different campaign tactic. Instead, he somewhat lazily kept presenting himself as the change candidate, while trying to yoke Carney to Trudeau’s record, rather than presenting his own more inspiring vision as the next leader of Canada. Poilievre only released the details of his party’s platform six days before the election. This was a remarkable misstep: with votes still being counted, it’s already clear that the Conservatives have significantly increased their share of the national vote from previous elections. Across the country, there are still deep pockets of resentment against the Liberals. Yet Poilievre’s pitch wasn’t enough to unseat Carney and, at the time of writing, the Conservative leader was poised to lose his seat.
Yet the final factor in deciding the election had little to do with Canadian politics at all. As I wrote back in March, many Canadians view Trump’s tariffs not just as an economic crisis, but an existential one. The US president chimed in on election day with a Truth Social post that only solidified that fear as he appeared to endorse himself as the next leader of Canada: “Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.”
Under the weight of Trump’s economic and rhetorical attacks, Canadians opted for Carney – an economist and a technocrat with a lofty CV – rather than the populist who had previously embraced a Maga-of-the-North style of politics. Now it will be up to Carney to grapple with not only the threat of Donald Trump from the south, but also the deepening political divisions at home. The real fight starts now.
[See also: Canada’s left is poised for a wipeout]
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