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How the New Statesman’s midterms forecast triumphed

The NS was the only forecaster to project that the Democrats would retain control of the Senate.

By Ben Walker

The Senate race to represent Georgia has concluded, and with it, all election races in the US midterms. The Democrat Raphael Warnock has been projected by all major news stations as the winner of the run-off contest.

It means the Democrats retain control of the Senate, with 51 seats to the Republican Party’s 49. The Dems have boosted the number of seats they hold in the Senate in the midterm elections, flipping (or gaining, in UK-speak) the state of Pennsylvania from Republican control.

The House of Representatives, meanwhile, swung away from the Democrats. There, the GOP took control, making ten net gains from the latter.

With all the results now in, the New Statesman is pleased to announce its midterm predictions came closest of all major forecasters.

How did the forecasters do?
Comparing the forecasters with the final result

The New Statesman was the only forecaster to project the Democrats would retain control of the Senate, with every senators’ race called correctly. In terms of the House, the New Statesman was only two congressional districts – out of 435 – off from getting its projection bang on.

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The race for control of the House came down to the narrowest of margins in many seats. With almost all votes now in, it could be estimated that if 30,000 or so ballots had switched sides, it would be the Democrats hanging on, rather than the Republicans gaining control. For the US, that is a very close-run race.

Forecast by Ben Walker.

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