Support 110 years of independent journalism.

How the New Statesman’s midterms forecast triumphed

The NS was the only forecaster to project that the Democrats would retain control of the Senate.

By Ben Walker

The Senate race to represent Georgia has concluded, and with it, all election races in the US midterms. The Democrat Raphael Warnock has been projected by all major news stations as the winner of the run-off contest.

It means the Democrats retain control of the Senate, with 51 seats to the Republican Party’s 49. The Dems have boosted the number of seats they hold in the Senate in the midterm elections, flipping (or gaining, in UK-speak) the state of Pennsylvania from Republican control.

The House of Representatives, meanwhile, swung away from the Democrats. There, the GOP took control, making ten net gains from the latter.

With all the results now in, the New Statesman is pleased to announce its midterm predictions came closest of all major forecasters.

How did the forecasters do?
Comparing the forecasters with the final result


The New Statesman was the only forecaster to project the Democrats would retain control of the Senate, with every senators’ race called correctly. In terms of the House, the New Statesman was only two congressional districts – out of 435 – off from getting its projection bang on.

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how Progressive Media Investments may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

The race for control of the House came down to the narrowest of margins in many seats. With almost all votes now in, it could be estimated that if 30,000 or so ballots had switched sides, it would be the Democrats hanging on, rather than the Republicans gaining control. For the US, that is a very close-run race.

Forecast by Ben Walker.

[See also: The People vs J Edgar Hoover review: Emily Maitlis shows how the FBI took power in the US]

Content from our partners
What you need to know about private markets
Work isn't working: how to boost the nation's health and happiness
The dementia crisis: a call for action

Topics in this article : , ,