Support 100 years of independent journalism.

Three things to watch out for in the US midterms

The nationwide results will determine the future of Joe Biden’s presidency, and of American democracy itself.

By Emily Tamkin

WASHINGTON DC – The midterm elections in the United States are tomorrow (8 November). Here are three things to watch out for.

1. Keep an eye on the governors’ and secretaries of state elections. Most midterms coverage focuses on whether Democrats will keep or lose the Senate and House. There’s a good reason for this – namely, the result will determine whether any legislation will pass in the next two years. But for the future of American democracy, the more important races might be those for governor and secretary of state. After all, it is these offices that set the rules for future elections – like, say, the presidential election of 2024. (I wrote more about this here.)

2. Whither white suburban women. After the Roe vs Wade decision on the federal right to abortion was overturned in June, some predicted that women would rebel by voting for Democrats in the midterms. Recent polling, however, suggests that white suburban women are swinging back towards the Republican Party. But what will it be at the ballot box?

3. Who claims victory on the night? As we know by now, counting the ballots in certain states can take a long time. Pay attention to who tries to claim victory while votes are still being counted – and what they have to say about election integrity.

 As for the main event – the House and Senate – the New Statesman’s polls expert Ben Walker has set up a poll tracker. His prediction is that the Democrats will lose the House but manage to keep the Senate. While that would derail any significant legislation from getting passed in the next two years, it would also mean that House Republicans’ threats to impeach Joe Biden would remain toothless and that if another Supreme Court seat were to open up, for example, Biden could fill it without Republican obstruction.

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

I’ll be live-blogging the midterm election results on the NS website as they come in on Tuesday night, along with our senior editor for China and global affairs, Katie. We may not know the outcome of every race on the night, but we will be there to help you to make sense of what does happen. We hope you’ll be there along with us.

Content from our partners
Why public health policy needs to refocus
The five key tech areas for the public sector in 2023
You wouldn’t give your house keys to anyone, so why do that with your computers?

This article first appeared in the World Review newsletter. It comes out on Mondays and Fridays; subscribe here.

Follow our 2022 US midterm election live blog