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  1. International Politics
  2. US Election 2020
9 September 2020updated 06 Sep 2021 1:03pm

US presidential election 2020: what the latest polling shows

Ben Walker writes:   A slew of new polls in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention record a number of shifts, but not necessarily, as yet, trends. The first is that voter certainty and confidence in both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have drifted somewhat, particularly among minorities and non-college educated whites respectively. In Florida, a new survey shows Joe Biden leading Latinos, but with a much reduced lead from what Hillary Clinton had in 2016.   Similar surveys elsewhere bump up Trump’s chances in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina; but reduced enthusiasm among non-college educated whites has gifted Biden with larger leads in Michigan and Arizona.   We’ll need one more week of surveys to gauge whether we’re seeing the beginning of a sustained shift, or just a bit of poll noise. Nonetheless, the New Statesman model has upped Trump’s chances of keeping control of the White House from one-in-ten 50 days ago to now near one-in-five.   For more on Biden's chances of securing the presidency, see my analysis here.

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Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team.
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