Donald Trump likes to dangle his courtiers in front of audiences to gauge their popularity, like a butcher holding up a pair of chickens by the legs. More charitably, you might say the president fosters a culture of competitiveness between his staff members as part of a leadership development programme that is intended to help them reach their full potential as public servants. You might say.
Whichever it is, on the day Trump started his war with Iran, he asked a room of 25 donors at Mar-a-Lago: should he support JD Vance or Marco Rubio for the nomination in 2028? One report suggests the room overwhelmingly cheered for Rubio. The secretary of state is a native Floridian, to be fair. Vance’s heartlands lie farther north and west. But the big man would have heard the cheers. And cheers are what matter in his book.
What is definitely true is that over the past four months, Vance has descended from heir-apparent to contender-among-many. Doubts about his automatic succession really gained momentum in Washington after the successful attack on Caracas in the early hours of 3 January. Rubio was seen as the hawk behind the operation and developed a reputation as a man who got things done.
Vance has the relatively powerless role of vice-president, while Rubio has notched up extra jobs alongside the most powerful cabinet position, secretary of state – from national security adviser to USAid director to chief archivist. This was feasible because those agencies were being gutted, and so the roles were largely nominal. But it also reflects how competent Trump considers his erstwhile rival for the Republican nomination to be – which is boosting Rubio’s image within the Maga movement, to someone who is a loyal and effective operator. With Trump’s approval rating among the loyalist base, if not the country, still at Pyongyang levels, this matters for anyone wanting to secure the nomination in 2028.
How has Vance responded? He’s bagged himself a job as “fraud tsar”. The tsar for rooting out fraud, that is; not excelling at it. In recent weeks, Vance has also been given the job of negotiating a ceasefire with Iran, taking over from real-estate experts and diplomatic novices, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He is clearly conscious that the war he reportedly advised against is firmly opposed across the US and within the Maga movement itself, particularly among its splenetic youth wing. At a recent event he said: “I recognise that young voters do not love the policy we have in the Middle East, I understand.”
The benefit of Vance’s new role is that he could be associated with the end of an unpopular war. It also burnishes his international credentials, which are relatively sparse – especially compared with Rubio’s. But it’s a risk for him: agreement has so far proved elusive. Poor terms in the agreement would make him look weak – and invite the ire of his boss, who repeatedly says that Vance is responsible for the adventure. As Trump has said: “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming [him]. If it does, I’m taking full credit.” Don’t worry, it’s all part of the leadership development programme.
Vance’s recent visit to Hungary to stump for Viktor Orbán was also ill-fated. He can obviously read the polls, so must have known that Orbán’s chances were slim. This suggests he is willing to put his name to causes he cares about, such as sovereigntist politicians in Europe, even if they put him on the losing side. This humiliation (after Orbán’s seismic loss) spent political capital at a time when his stock was already falling. The failure to adapt to the situation for the good of his career – relative to his peers, of course: he does it all the time – suggests that his will to power is not as well-tuned as Rubio’s. Trump is an unquestionably unique figure; once he goes, the laws of “normal” politics might start to make themselves felt again.
Given the Democrats are heavy favourites for 2028, Vance might be looking to skip the next cycle so he can mature in the wilderness before roaring back to the nomination once Gavin Newsom, or whoever wins the Democratic crown, has sullied themselves in office. A failed run in 2028 might stick, not least if Trump tries some extra-constitutional manoeuvre again. Vance, 41, is a full 13 years younger than Rubio, 54. While 2026 has hardly been a banner year for the vice-president, he has time – another 41 years potentially, given the age of the last two presidents.
[Further reading: Donald Trump is WEAK on Catholicism]
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