Editor’s note: This story has been updated in light of Donald Trump’s assertion on 23 June that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire that would take effect within the next 24 hours. Yet Israel says it has suffered a strike and intercepted a missile launched by Iran on 24 June, hours after the truce came into effect (which Iran denies). Trump has has since posted on social media that Israel should not retaliate: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” He later posted that “the ceasefire is in effect”.
Thirty-six hours after the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s military announced that it had begun its retaliation, targeting the Al-Udeid air base in Qatar, the largest US military installation in the region, with “destructive and forceful missiles”. US and UK citizens were told to shelter in place as Qatar closed its air space. Air-raid sirens sounded in the capital of neighbouring Bahrain. Video footage showed lights streaking through the night sky over Doha on 23 June, followed by loud explosions as air defence batteries shot down the incoming missiles. But within minutes, it was all over.
For all the theatrics, the Iranian attack was largely symbolic. Iran notified Qatar of the attack hours in advance, ensuring there was plenty of time to intercept the missiles and little chance of significant damage or casualties that might provoke a response from the US. Tehran took a similar approach in 2020, notifying Iraqi officials ahead of a planned strike on a US base there following the assassination of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani. Now, as then, they nominally responded, not allowing the US’s attack to go unanswered, but clearly determined not to supply the pretext for a further round of escalation and a new wave of US strikes.
Oil prices duly fell, dropping more than four per cent in the immediate aftermath, and global stock markets rallied, signalling a collective exhalation at the prospect that Iran might, in fact, be looking for an off-ramp, rather than a wider war with the US that could include an attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt shipments of oil and gas. Donald Trump responded, naturally, with a social media post, characterising the Iranian action as “very weak” and thanking Tehran for providing early warning. “Most importantly, they’ve got it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.” In another post shortly afterwards, he wrote: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
Later that evening, Trump posted another update on his Truth Social account, announcing that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” which he said would take effect within the next 24 hours. “On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.”
Yet even as Trump was busy naming the war and claiming credit for the coming ceasefire, which he insisted would be “saluted by the World,” the Israeli air force launched a new wave of attacks on Iran overnight in the hours before it was due to begin, repeatedly striking central Tehran and urging residents to evacuate. Assuming that Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu does agree to abide by the ceasefire – at the time of writing there was no official confirmation that Israel and Iran had agreed to the terms Trump has laid out – he knows that he has already succeeded in persuading the US president to attack Iran once, and he may well assess that he has every chance of doing so again. It is not hard to imagine Netanyahu being tempted to push further in the weeks ahead to realise his stated aims of removing “two concrete, existential threats: the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat” from Iran, particularly given what he clearly views as a historic window of opportunity with Tehran’s once-feared proxies decimated and the country’s air defences all but destroyed. He may only be emboldened by the tepid Iranian response in Qatar.
Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin on Monday. The Russian leader condemned the “unprovoked aggression against Iran” and promised to “assist the Iranian people,” but with his own military waging their continued assault on Ukraine he was careful to avoid offering much more than platitudes. Beijing, too, has criticised the US strikes, which the foreign ministry said, “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law”. But there is little sign that China intends to wade into the conflict, beyond urging all sides to de-escalate.
Still, Tehran is making clear that it still has allies and will not be forced to capitulate. Iranian state media reported on Monday that the national security committee of the country’s parliament had approved plans to suspend co-operation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which had censured Iran on the eve of the conflict for failing to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations. It is far from clear whether the US strikes succeeded in destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities, as the US president has claimed, or if, in fact, the regime was able to relocate some of its equipment and uranium stockpile ahead of the strikes, tipped off, in part, by Trump’s repeated hints on social media that he was preparing to authorise the military campaign. The Iranian government, in whatever form it emerges from this war, may yet assess that the surest bet for survival is to follow the North Korean model and race for a nuclear weapon at all costs. After all, the last time Tehran entered nuclear negotiations with the US, it ended with American B-2s overhead dropping 30,000-pound bombs.
If the Iranian attack on Qatar turns out to be the extent of the regime’s military response to the US strikes and the promised ceasefire takes effect, there will be deserved relief in Washington, and across the region, that there is at least a temporary halt to what had threatened to become a dangerous escalatory spiral. Trump now appears to be taking the opportunity to declare victory, but if he hopes to avoid a swift return to the fighting he must also make clear to Netanyahu that this marks the end of US involvement in this conflict, and back away from his recent musings on social media about the need for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and regime change in Iran. Announcing a ceasefire on social media is a long way from delivering a durable peace.
[See also: Ayatollah Khamenei faces a nuclear nightmare]
Content from our partners
Related
