Ed Miliband ditching the "command and control" politics of the New Labour years

He wants it to be all about grassroots, community campaigning.

There are a couple of interesting hints about Labour's strategy going into the 2015 general election in the Independent today. Andrew Grice secured what appears to have been a much-interrupted interview with Ed Miliband on a train to Carlisle, and the Labour leader was keen to put the focus on Labour's efforts at community organising and grassroots campaigning.

Miliband said:

It’s not just about winning elections… It’s about constructing a real political movement. It’s a change from machine politics to grassroots politics.

A seemingly bland bit of politician-speak, but Labour are also investing cash in this strategy - as Grice points out, by the end of this year, Labour will have employed 170 full-time organisers in its 106 target seats, who in turn will recruit and train volunteer organisers in time for the 2015 election.

There was also a mention for David Miliband's Movement for Change campaign group, which he set up in conjuntion with American political guru Arnie Graf. David may be off to New York, but it seems like his grassroots organisation is about to become pretty important to Labour as the party moves away from the centralised election strategies of the New Labour years.

As my colleague George Eaton's recent interview with American journalist Sasha Issenberg reveals, the more data you have on your potential voters, the more likely you are to be able to target your persuasive messages at them effectively. By getting more organisers and volunteers out on the doorstep early on in the election cycle, Labour should be able to collect information that will pay dividends when the polls open in two years' time.
 

Ed Miliband claims his "One Nation" message is cutting through. Photograph: Getty Images

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

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Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.