Canvassing in Battersea, which Labour failed to win. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Why did Labour lose so badly?

The fundamentals - the Tories' advantage on leadership and the economy - reasserted themselves.

Plenty in Labour were braced for a mediocre election result. With the party expected to lose almost all of its 40 Scottish seats (a forecast which proved terrifyingly accurate) it would struggle to advance far from the 258 it won in 2010. But few anticipated the calamity that befell them last night.

The Tories are now projected to win a majority (with 329 seats), a remarkable result after a term of austerity. David Cameron is on course to become the first incumbent prime minister since 1955 to increase his party's vote share. Labour, meanwhile, is expected to have just 233, 25 fewer than it won in the assumed nadir of 2010. Among the casualties, remarkably, is Ed Balls, a huge loss to his party and the Commons. As in 1992, when the "shy Tories" fooled the pollsters, the Conservatives have benefited from those only prepared to profess their loyalty in the privacy of the voting booth.

The great surprise of the night was not Labour's performance in Scotland (which was merely as terrible as forecast) but its performance in England and Wales. It not only failed to make sufficient gains from the Tories, it lost seats it won under Gordon Brown.  Southampton Itchen, held by the party since 1992, went blue, as did Balls's Morley and Outwood, Bolton West, Telford, Derby North and the Vale of Clwyd. What explains failure on this scale? The Tories' SNP scare campaign, the hostility of the press to Labour and the Conservatives' funding advantage will all be widely cited. But the most plausible explanation is that, as the Tories long expected, "the fundamentals" simply reasserted themselves. For years, the Conservatives had enjoyed a commanding advantage on leadership and economic management. No opposition party has ever won while trailing on these. Labour's painfully large deficit on both made defeat inevitable.

This interpretation points to the need for Labour to restore its economic reputation and to elect a leader with far wider appeal than Ed Miliband (whose personal ratings evolved from terrible to merely bad during the campaign). But a fierce debate will now take place within the party over whether it lost because it drifted too far from New Labour or rather did not drift far enough. Those from the party's right will point to Miliband's refusal to state that the last government spent too much (failing to "concede and move on" in Philip Gould's phrase) and to act earlier to reassert Labour's fiscal probity (spending years opposing every cut in sight). But those on the left will criticise his decision to promise to moderate austerity, rather than to end it. In the absence of a clearer dividing line between the Tories and Labour, voters hungry for an alternative to the coalition were drawn to the SNP, Ukip and the Greens.

It is this argument that will now define the Labour leadership contest to come, with Chuka Umunna expected to represent the former position and Andy Burnham the latter. But with the party near-extinct in Scotland (holding one of the country's 59 seats), even more marginalised in the south and threatened by the Conservative boundary changes to come, the existential question will simply be "how can we win from here?" Labour is losing votes in all regions and to all parties for different reasons - to Scottish nationalists, to anti-immigration Ukippers, to southern conservatives, to anti-austerity Greens. There is no obvious strategy to address them all.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Commons Confidential: Fearing the Wigan warrior

An electoral clash, select committee elections as speed dating, and Ed Miliband’s political convalescence.

Members of Labour’s disconsolate majority, sitting in tight knots in the tearoom as the MP with the best maths skills calculates who will survive and who will die, based on the latest bad poll, observe that Jeremy Corbyn has never been so loyal to the party leadership. The past 13 months, one told me, have been the Islington rebel’s longest spell without voting against Labour. The MP was contradicted by a colleague who argued that, in voting against Trident renewal, Corbyn had defied party policy. There is Labour chatter that an early general election would be a mercy killing if it put the party out of its misery and removed Corbyn next year. In 2020, it is judged, defeat will be inevitable.

The next London mayoral contest is scheduled for the same date as a 2020 election: 7 May. Sadiq Khan’s people whisper that when they mentioned the clash to ministers, they were assured it won’t happen. They are uncertain whether this indicates that the mayoral contest will be moved, or that there will be an early general election. Intriguing.

An unguarded retort from the peer Jim O’Neill seems to confirm that a dispute over the so-called Northern Powerhouse triggered his walkout from the Treasury last month. O’Neill, a fanboy of George Osborne and a former Goldman Sachs chief economist, gave no reason when he quit Theresa May’s government and resigned the Tory whip in the Lords. He joined the dots publicly when the Resolution Foundation’s director, Torsten Bell, queried the northern project. “Are you related to the PM?” shot back the Mancunian O’Neill. It’s the way he tells ’em.

Talk has quietened in Westminster Labour ranks of a formal challenge to Corbyn since this year’s attempt backfired, but the Tories fear Lisa Nandy, should the leader fall under a solar-powered ecotruck selling recycled organic knitwear.

The Wigan warrior is enjoying favourable reviews for her forensic examination of the troubled inquiry into historic child sex abuse. After Nandy put May on the spot, the Tory three-piece suit Alec Shelbrooke was overheard muttering: “I hope she never runs for leader.” Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan, the Thelma and Louise of Tory opposition to Mayhem, were observed nodding in agreement.

Select committee elections are like speed dating. “Who are you?” inquired Labour’s Kevan Jones (Granite Central)of a stranger seeking his vote. She explained that she was Victoria Borwick, the Tory MP for Kensington, but that didn’t help. “This is the first time you’ve spoken to me,” Jones continued, “so the answer’s no.” The aloof Borwick lost, by the way.

Ed Miliband is joining Labour’s relaunched Tribune Group of MPs to continue his political convalescence. Next stop: the shadow cabinet?

Kevin Maguire is Associate Editor (Politics) on the Daily Mirror and author of our Commons Confidential column on the high politics and low life in Westminster. An award-winning journalist, he is in frequent demand on television and radio and co-authored a book on great parliamentary scandals. He was formerly Chief Reporter on the Guardian and Labour Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph.

This article first appeared in the 27 October 2016 issue of the New Statesman, American Rage