The slogan "You Can't Trust Labour" ultimately buried Neil Kinnock, seen here in 1992. Photo:Getty Images
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In burying Ed Miliband's project, Labour's leadership contenders risk burying themselves

As Labour's leadership contenders race to bury the Miliband project, they risk unearthing Neil Kinnock's defeat. 

"There's no point in running around shouting 'don't trash our record'," one ally of Ed Miliband remarked in 2010, "We got 29 per cent of the vote. It's already been trashed."

Similarly, you might argue, there's no point in trying to work out which parts of the Miliband project are worth saving. It got 31 per cent of the vote. It's already dead.

That's certainly the calculation that appears to be driving the campaigns of Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall and Yvette Cooper. Both Burnham and Cooper will today highlight their own closeness to business. Burnham will warn that Labour "didn't celebrate the spirit of enterprise", telling his audience that the party "got it wrong" on businesses. Kendall, meanwhile, having already delivered her critique of Milibandism, will set out her own stall with a speech in her constituency of Leicester. 

The criticism of this approach being pushed by Miliband's remaining allies is that the polls showed that economic competence and leadership, not Labour's attitude to business or aspiration, is what did for Labour. This is technically true. It seems unlikely, however, that a series of open letters from businessmen of various sizes and the constant attacks on Labour policies even from its own big-money donors didn't have something to do with the party's dire ratings on economic competence and leadership. 

Burnham's speech is good politics in the leadership race, too. He remains the frontrunner and a formidable candidate. But if there is any threat to him it looks most likely to come from Kendall on his right flank, and the more of her best lines he can appropriate, the better for him. It also further weakens the Cooper campaign's "best of both worlds" message - the less of a risky proposition Burnham looks, the less tempting Cooper's middle way is.

But there's a risk to Labour too. In 1992, the Conservatives sunk Neil Kinnock with one message: "You Can't Trust Labour". They argued that the Neil Kinnock of 1992 wasn't that different from the Neil Kinnock who stood up for Michael Foot in 1983 or the Neil Kinnock of 1987. They said he'd changed his mind before, and would change his mind again. Tony Blair - the only Labour leader to take his party into government since 1974 - had the advantage that he'd already tried to modernise the Labour party as an Opposition frontbencher, ending Labour's support for the closed shop and stealing Michael Howard's clothes as shadow home secretary. Kendall, the lowest-ranking of the candidates, can't so easily point to a record of putting her words into action. Cooper and Burnham, meanwhile, are even more implicated in the last five years. It may be that in shucking off Miliband's reputation for being anti-business, they re-acquire Kinnock's for evasiveness.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics. 

Photo: Getty
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The big problem for the NHS? Local government cuts

Even a U-Turn on planned cuts to the service itself will still leave the NHS under heavy pressure. 

38Degrees has uncovered a series of grisly plans for the NHS over the coming years. Among the highlights: severe cuts to frontline services at the Midland Metropolitan Hospital, including but limited to the closure of its Accident and Emergency department. Elsewhere, one of three hospitals in Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland are to be shuttered, while there will be cuts to acute services in Suffolk and North East Essex.

These cuts come despite an additional £8bn annual cash injection into the NHS, characterised as the bare minimum needed by Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England.

The cuts are outlined in draft sustainability and transformation plans (STP) that will be approved in October before kicking off a period of wider consultation.

The problem for the NHS is twofold: although its funding remains ringfenced, healthcare inflation means that in reality, the health service requires above-inflation increases to stand still. But the second, bigger problem aren’t cuts to the NHS but to the rest of government spending, particularly local government cuts.

That has seen more pressure on hospital beds as outpatients who require further non-emergency care have nowhere to go, increasing lifestyle problems as cash-strapped councils either close or increase prices at subsidised local authority gyms, build on green space to make the best out of Britain’s booming property market, and cut other corners to manage the growing backlog of devolved cuts.

All of which means even a bigger supply of cash for the NHS than the £8bn promised at the last election – even the bonanza pledged by Vote Leave in the referendum, in fact – will still find itself disappearing down the cracks left by cuts elsewhere. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.