Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell in a photo that David Cameron probably hasn't made his iPad background. Photo: Getty
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Nigel Farage has his eye on more Tory defections, but will it happen?

Following the surprise news this week that Douglas Carswell MP has defected from the Conservatives to Ukip, Nigel Farage is anticipating more Tories joining his fold.

The surprise politics news this week is the defection of Douglas Carswell, erstwhile maverick Tory backbencher, to Ukip. And as is appropriate considering his obsession with direct democracy and restoring faith in Westminster politics, he will stand down as an MP to trigger a by-election, in order to attempt to get re-elected by his Clacton constituents now he’s changed his political allegiance.

And just when we didn’t think it was possible for the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, to look even more like an elated frog, he’s popped up by Carswell’s side both for his announcement yesterday and his constituency visit today, and is crowing that more MPs – both Tories and Labour – could join Ukip if Carswell wins the by-election. He has written a piece in the Independent today anticipating more defections:

There are an increasing number of Conservative and Labour backbenchers who not only support UKIP fully in what it is trying to achieve, but view the impact of open-door immigration... with increasing urgency.

There are rumours bouncing around Westminster about who could follow in Carswell’s footsteps, and the Independent reports that the Tory whips were anxiously ringing round the “usual suspects” last night in an attempt to stave off more copy-cat defections. The Mail reports that there are eight other Conservative MPs who have held “intensive talks” with Ukip about defecting, Carswell being one of nine to have been wined and dined in secret Mayfair lunches by the millionaire Ukip donor, Stuart Wheeler.

However, BBC’s Nick Robinson on the Today programme this morning called the idea that there are eight more about to defect “tosh”, and insisted that “anybody who tells you they know who is going to join Ukip is probably lying” and “the idea that this is part of a planned roll-out I think is slightly nonsense”.

The Independent lists the most likely future Tory defectors, calling them Ukip’s “potential targets”. On the list are Nadine Dorries, Michael Fabricant, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone, Philip Hollobone and David Nuttall.

Many of these figures and other “suspects” have expressed their disappointment at Carswell’s decision and pledged their loyalty to the Conservative party, one among these being the eurosceptic John Redwood MP who told the Today programme he “entirely” agreed with everything Carswell had said up until yesterday, reflecting that the defecting MP had been “super-loyal” up until then. He added that the “so-called eight are figments of Ukip’s imagination… dream on, Ukip.”

It is perhaps a matter of exaggeration on both sides. Ukip is playing up the danger to the Conservative leadership it poses, while the Tory MPs who have some Ukip sympathies are protesting too much when they insist on their absolute allegiance to the PM. There is more of a practical point to why it's unlikely that there will be a slew of defections following Carswell. He has set a precedent by triggering a by-election – which is not a necessary move for an MP changing parties ­– and so anyone following his lead would have to stand down and seek re-election too. However, not all Ukip-leaning Tory MPs have as comfortable a majority, and as strong a local profile, as Carswell, so they would be risking losing their seat if they took such a gamble.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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The rise of the green mayor – Sadiq Khan and the politics of clean energy

At an event at Tate Modern, Sadiq Khan pledged to clean up London's act.

On Thursday night, deep in the bowls of Tate Modern’s turbine hall, London Mayor Sadiq Khan renewed his promise to make the capital a world leader in clean energy and air. Yet his focus was as much on people as power plants – in particular, the need for local authorities to lead where central governments will not.

Khan was there to introduce the screening of a new documentary, From the Ashes, about the demise of the American coal industry. As he noted, Britain continues to battle against the legacy of fossil fuels: “In London today we burn very little coal but we are facing new air pollution challenges brought about for different reasons." 

At a time when the world's leaders are struggling to keep international agreements on climate change afloat, what can mayors do? Khan has pledged to buy only hybrid and zero-emissions buses from next year, and is working towards London becoming a zero carbon city.

Khan has, of course, also gained heroic status for being a bête noire of climate-change-denier-in-chief Donald Trump. On the US president's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Khan quipped: “If only he had withdrawn from Twitter.” He had more favourable things to say about the former mayor of New York and climate change activist Michael Bloomberg, who Khan said hailed from “the second greatest city in the world.”

Yet behind his humour was a serious point. Local authorities are having to pick up where both countries' central governments are leaving a void – in improving our air and supporting renewable technology and jobs. Most concerning of all, perhaps, is the way that interest groups representing business are slashing away at the regulations which protect public health, and claiming it as a virtue.

In the UK, documents leaked to Greenpeace’s energy desk show that a government-backed initiative considered proposals for reducing EU rules on fire-safety on the very day of the Grenfell Tower fire. The director of this Red Tape Initiative, Nick Tyrone, told the Guardian that these proposals were rejected. Yet government attempts to water down other EU regulations, such as the energy efficiency directive, still stand.

In America, this blame-game is even more highly charged. Republicans have sworn to replace what they describe as Obama’s “war on coal” with a war on regulation. “I am taking historic steps to lift the restrictions on American energy, to reverse government intrusion, and to cancel job-killing regulations,” Trump announced in March. While he has vowed “to promote clean air and clear water,” he has almost simultaneously signed an order to unravel the Clean Water Rule.

This rhetoric is hurting the very people it claims to protect: miners. From the Ashes shows the many ways that the industry harms wider public health, from water contamination, to air pollution. It also makes a strong case that the American coal industry is in terminal decline, regardless of possibile interventions from government or carbon capture.

Charities like Bloomberg can only do so much to pick up the pieces. The foundation, which helped fund the film, now not only helps support job training programs in coal communities after the Trump administration pulled their funding, but in recent weeks it also promised $15m to UN efforts to tackle climate change – again to help cover Trump's withdrawal from Paris Agreement. “I'm a bit worried about how many cards we're going to have to keep adding to the end of the film”, joked Antha Williams, a Bloomberg representative at the screening, with gallows humour.

Hope also lies with local governments and mayors. The publication of the mayor’s own environment strategy is coming “soon”. Speaking in panel discussion after the film, his deputy mayor for environment and energy, Shirley Rodrigues, described the move to a cleaner future as "an inevitable transition".

Confronting the troubled legacies of our fossil fuel past will not be easy. "We have our own experiences here of our coal mining communities being devastated by the closure of their mines," said Khan. But clean air begins with clean politics; maintaining old ways at the price of health is not one any government must pay. 

'From The Ashes' will premiere on National Geograhpic in the United Kingdom at 9pm on Tuesday, June 27th.

India Bourke is an environment writer and editorial assistant at the New Statesman.

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