David Cameron and Ed Miliband walk through the Members' Lobby before the Queen's Speech on June 4, 2014. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Labour and the Tories are both framing 2015 as a two-horse race

But which will benefit the most?

After last year's "summer of silence" (in the words of one shadow minister), Labour is aiming to hit the parliamentary recess running. Ed Miliband's speech tomorrow marks the beginning of a "summer offensive" that will feature more than a dozen major speeches by members of the shadow cabinet in the next five weeks. 

The campaign will be framed around "The Choice" between a "Labour future" and "Tory threat". The aim, as I write in my column this week, is to present the general election as a diametric battle between the two main parties, deterring former Lib Dems from returning home and traditional Labour supporters from defecting to Ukip. Having previously spoken of a new era of "four-party politics", Labour has returned to acting as if there are just two. 

It is a message that the party badly needs voters to hear as they find alternative receptacles for their discontent. Lord Ashcroft’s most recent marginals poll found that Ukip is now in first place in Thurrock (Labour’s number-two target seat) and in Thanet South (where Nigel Farage will likely soon announce his candidacy). The Greens are polling at their highest level since 1989. If the election produces a second successive hung parliament for the first time since 1910, it is this fracturing of the anti-government vote that will explain why.

Labour's attempt to present itself as the only vehicle for anti-Tory voters makes sense, but it is not without risk. By framing the general election as a contest between itself and the Conservatives, it helps to reinforce the equivalent Tory message that the only way to stop the opposition taking power is to vote Conservative (not Ukip). If enough Ukip supporters return to the Tory fold, Labour could struggle to win many of the Conservative marginals it has targeted. 

For the Tories, the danger of presenting the election as a Manichean battle between itself and the opposition is that the 25 per cent of 2010 Lib Dems who have defected to Labour are even less inclined to return (as I've written before, Tory MPs recognise that they need a partial Lib Dem recovery to remain the largest party).

If there is cause for Labour optimism it is that the number of anti-Tory voters is higher than the number of anti-Labour voters. As recent polling by Ipsos MORI found, 40 per cent of the electorate would never consider voting Conservative, compared to 33 per cent for Labour. With a far stronger brand, it is the opposition that has the most to gain if voters come to view 2015 as a battle between red and blue. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Tom Watson rouses Labour's conference as he comes out fighting

The party's deputy leader exhilarated delegates with his paean to the Blair and Brown years. 

Tom Watson is down but not out. After Jeremy Corbyn's second landslide victory, and weeks of threats against his position, Labour's deputy leader could have played it safe. Instead, he came out fighting. 

With Corbyn seated directly behind him, he declared: "I don't know why we've been focusing on what was wrong with the Blair and Brown governments for the last six years. But trashing our record is not the way to enhance our brand. We won't win elections like that! And we need to win elections!" As Watson won a standing ovation from the hall and the platform, the Labour leader remained motionless. When a heckler interjected, Watson riposted: "Jeremy, I don't think she got the unity memo." Labour delegates, many of whom hail from the pre-Corbyn era, lapped it up.

Though he warned against another challenge to the leader ("we can't afford to keep doing this"), he offered a starkly different account of the party's past and its future. He reaffirmed Labour's commitment to Nato ("a socialist construct"), with Corbyn left isolated as the platform applauded. The only reference to the leader came when Watson recalled his recent PMQs victory over grammar schools. There were dissenting voices (Watson was heckled as he praised Sadiq Khan for winning an election: "Just like Jeremy Corbyn!"). But one would never have guessed that this was the party which had just re-elected Corbyn. 

There was much more to Watson's speech than this: a fine comic riff on "Saturday's result" (Ed Balls on Strictly), a spirited attack on Theresa May's "ducking and diving; humming and hahing" and a cerebral account of the automation revolution. But it was his paean to Labour history that roused the conference as no other speaker has. 

The party's deputy channelled the spirit of both Hugh Gaitskell ("fight, and fight, and fight again to save the party we love") and his mentor Gordon Brown (emulating his trademark rollcall of New Labour achivements). With his voice cracking, Watson recalled when "from the sunny uplands of increasing prosperity social democratic government started to feel normal to the people of Britain". For Labour, a party that has never been further from power in recent decades, that truly was another age. But for a brief moment, Watson's tubthumper allowed Corbyn's vanquished opponents to relive it. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.