David Cameron making a speech about NHS reforms at University College Hospital in June 7, 2011 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Why the Tories have stopped talking about the NHS

Election strategist Lynton Crosby has warned them that it helps Labour, which has a double-digit lead on the issue.

In his first speech to the Conservative conference as leader, David Cameron declared that while it took Tony Blair three words to sum up his priorities ("Education, education, education"), he could do it in three letters: "N-H-S". But there was no mention of the health service in the Queen's Speech. Indeed, the Tories have had little to say on the subject at all recently. 

I'm told that there is a precise reason for this: Lynton Crosby has ordered them not to. Recent polling by the Conservative election strategist has shown that the Tories continue to trail Labour by a double-digit margin on the issue, despite a concerted effort to pin the blame for the Mid-Staffs scandal on the opposition and shadow health secretary Andy Burnham. The Tories' fateful decision to break their promise to end the "top-down reorganisation" of the NHS means that they have lost the ground they gained in opposition, when they polled level with Labour. Such is the damage that the mere mention of the health service is now regarded as aiding Ed Miliband. 

In his speech at last year's Conservative conference, Cameron said: "Some people said the NHS wasn't safe in our hands. Well - we knew otherwise. Who protected spending on the NHS? Not Labour - us. Who started the Cancer Drugs Fund? Not Labour - us. And by the way - who presided over Mid Staffs? Patients left for so long without water, they were drinking out of dirty vases...people's grandparents lying filthy and unwashed for days. Who allowed that to happen? Yes, it was Labour...and don't you dare lecture anyone on the NHS again." 

But don't expect to see a similar passage in this year's pre-election address. One of Crosby's most consistent pieces of advice to the Tories is "not to play on Labour's side of the pitch". This means talking about issues on which the party is strong, such as the economy, immigration and welfare, and avoiding those on which it is weak, such as the NHS, child poverty and the environment. Cameron's decision to obey Crosby's edict marks the final abandonment of Conservative modernisation, under which the party sought to capture ground traditionally colonised by Labour. 

Miliband now has even more reason than before to ensure the NHS is one of the defining election issues. Recent polling by Lord Ashcroft has shown that the health service ranks level with immigration as the second most important policy area for voters after the economy. A radical offer on the NHS and social care, most likely to be unveiled at this year's Labour conference, will be crucial to the party's chances of victory. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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