David Cameron. Photo: Wikimedia
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Cameron's tough stance on Juncker: who's it for?

The Prime Minister's hardline attitude is now more about impressing British voters than winning the battle over the top EU post. 

Although it seems ill-fated, David Cameron’s hardline stance against the selection of Jean Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission is proving a success with British voters.

Counterintuitively, perhaps, the Prime Minister’s likely doomed doggedness is being viewed as a sign of strength rather than weakness.

The latest Populus poll for the FT revealed that 43 per cent of Brits feel that the Prime Minister is “right in any case” to try and block the federalist Luxembourger, while just 14 per cent say he is right only if he succeeds.

It is interesting that even when unlikely to win out, a tough stance by the nation’s leader towards Johnny Foreigner is favoured by the electorate.

More than that, Cameron’s attitude remains popular even though it has provoked extreme frustration and dismay among our continental neighbours.

Make no mistake, however: this public support for the Prime Minister is not based on widespread British attitudes about the EU or increased integration.

Rather, Brits' reaction to Cameron's stance against Juncker taking the top EU post tells us more about oursevles and what we desire from and like about domestic politics.

We like strength in our leaders, which in turn projects the strength of our small island nation on the world stage. A hangover from post-Colonialism? Maybe.

It is good news for Cameron, whose gamble to stick out the fight even with defeat in sight has paid off. There are two chief benefits for the Prime Minister in maintaining this pose. Firstly, it projects robust leadership, at a time when such qualities seem deeply lacking at the top of British politics.

The Prime Minister's hardline stance will also prove useful in conveying the impression of him as a deeply principled individual who will keep fighting for what he believes in even as he goes down in flames.

We have seen a similar phenomenon in Russia in recent months, where the leader's aggressive foreign policy, perceived strength, and supposedly "principled" stance on the protection of ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers abroad, gave him a strong boost domestically.

While the international community heaped criticism on Russian President Vladimir Putin following the annexation of Crimea and his handling of the Ukraine crisis, Russians at home loved it.

Last month Putin’s popularity hit a six-year high according to the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion. His approval rating rose to 85 per cent, up from 64 per cent in May 2013.

Pundits have noted that the only time Putin enjoyed higher domestic approval ratings (hitting an astonishing 90 per cent) was after the 2008 war with Georgia - again projecting Russian strength.

It just goes to show, the old axiom that all foreign policy is domestic policy still holds true.

Lucy Fisher writes about politics and is the winner of the Anthony Howard Award 2013. She tweets @LOS_Fisher.

 

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Hannan Fodder: This week, Daniel Hannan gets his excuses in early

I didn't do it. 

Since Daniel Hannan, a formerly obscure MEP, has emerged as the anointed intellectual of the Brexit elite, The Staggers is charting his ascendancy...

When I started this column, there were some nay-sayers talking Britain down by doubting that I was seriously going to write about Daniel Hannan every week. Surely no one could be that obsessed with the activities of one obscure MEP? And surely no politician could say enough ludicrous things to be worthy of such an obsession?

They were wrong, on both counts. Daniel and I are as one on this: Leave and Remain, working hand in glove to deliver on our shared national mission. There’s a lesson there for my fellow Remoaners, I’m sure.

Anyway. It’s week three, and just as I was worrying what I might write this week, Dan has ridden to the rescue by writing not one but two columns making the same argument – using, indeed, many of the exact same phrases (“not a club, but a protection racket”). Like all the most effective political campaigns, Dan has a message of the week.

First up, on Monday, there was this headline, in the conservative American journal, the Washington Examiner:

“Why Brexit should work out for everyone”

And yesterday, there was his column on Conservative Home:

“We will get a good deal – because rational self-interest will overcome the Eurocrats’ fury”

The message of the two columns is straightforward: cooler heads will prevail. Britain wants an amicable separation. The EU needs Britain’s military strength and budget contributions, and both sides want to keep the single market intact.

The Con Home piece makes the further argument that it’s only the Eurocrats who want to be hardline about this. National governments – who have to answer to actual electorates – will be more willing to negotiate.

And so, for all the bluster now, Theresa May and Donald Tusk will be skipping through a meadow, arm in arm, before the year is out.

Before we go any further, I have a confession: I found myself nodding along with some of this. Yes, of course it’s in nobody’s interests to create unnecessary enmity between Britain and the continent. Of course no one will want to crash the economy. Of course.

I’ve been told by friends on the centre-right that Hannan has a compelling, faintly hypnotic quality when he speaks and, in retrospect, this brief moment of finding myself half-agreeing with him scares the living shit out of me. So from this point on, I’d like everyone to keep an eye on me in case I start going weird, and to give me a sharp whack round the back of the head if you ever catch me starting a tweet with the word, “Friends-”.

Anyway. Shortly after reading things, reality began to dawn for me in a way it apparently hasn’t for Daniel Hannan, and I began cataloguing the ways in which his argument is stupid.

Problem number one: Remarkably for a man who’s been in the European Parliament for nearly two decades, he’s misunderstood the EU. He notes that “deeper integration can be more like a religious dogma than a political creed”, but entirely misses the reason for this. For many Europeans, especially those from countries which didn’t have as much fun in the Second World War as Britain did, the EU, for all its myriad flaws, is something to which they feel an emotional attachment: not their country, but not something entirely separate from it either.

Consequently, it’s neither a club, nor a “protection racket”: it’s more akin to a family. A rational and sensible Brexit will be difficult for the exact same reasons that so few divorcing couples rationally agree not to bother wasting money on lawyers: because the very act of leaving feels like a betrayal.

Or, to put it more concisely, courtesy of Buzzfeed’s Marie Le Conte:

Problem number two: even if everyone was to negotiate purely in terms of rational interest, our interests are not the same. The over-riding goal of German policy for decades has been to hold the EU together, even if that creates other problems. (Exhibit A: Greece.) So there’s at least a chance that the German leadership will genuinely see deterring more departures as more important than mutual prosperity or a good relationship with Britain.

And France, whose presidential candidates are lining up to give Britain a kicking, is mysteriously not mentioned anywhere in either of Daniel’s columns, presumably because doing so would undermine his argument.

So – the list of priorities Hannan describes may look rational from a British perspective. Unfortunately, though, the people on the other side of the negotiating table won’t have a British perspective.

Problem number three is this line from the Con Home piece:

“Might it truly be more interested in deterring states from leaving than in promoting the welfare of its peoples? If so, there surely can be no further doubt that we were right to opt out.”

If there any rhetorical technique more skin-crawlingly horrible, than, “Your response to my behaviour justifies my behaviour”?

I could go on, about how there’s no reason to think that Daniel’s relatively gentle vision of Brexit is shared by Nigel Farage, UKIP, or a significant number of those who voted Leave. Or about the polls which show that, far from the EU’s response to the referendum pushing more European nations towards the door, support for the union has actually spiked since the referendum – that Britain has become not a beacon of hope but a cautionary tale.

But I’m running out of words, and there’ll be other chances to explore such things. So instead I’m going to end on this:

Hannan’s argument – that only an irrational Europe would not deliver a good Brexit – is remarkably, parodically self-serving. It allows him to believe that, if Brexit goes horribly wrong, well, it must all be the fault of those inflexible Eurocrats, mustn’t it? It can’t possibly be because Brexit was a bad idea in the first place, or because liberal Leavers used nasty, populist ones to achieve their goals.

Read today, there are elements of Hannan’s columns that are compelling, even persuasive. From the perspective of 2020, I fear, they might simply read like one long explanation of why nothing that has happened since will have been his fault.

Jonn Elledge is the editor of the New Statesman's sister site CityMetric. He is on Twitter, far too much, as @JonnElledge.