Boris Johnson at the media launch for the Invictus Games 2014 at the Copper Box Arena in the Olympic Park on March 6, 2014 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Would Boris resign as mayor in order to become Conservative leader?

The Tories should start preparing for the possibility of a mayoral by-election next year. 

In defiance of Michael Heseltine's recent advice to him not to stand for parliament until he has completed his second term as Mayor of London in 2016, Boris Johnson is set to announce that he will seek to return as an MP at next year's election. The Daily Mail and the Sun report that he will confirm his intentions by the summer in order to avoid acting as a distraction at the Conservative conference in October (although a distraction he will doubtless remain). 

There is no constitutional bar to Boris becoming an MP and continuing to serve as Mayor. Indeed, there is a precedent. After the first contest in 2000, Ken Livingstone remained the MP for Brent East until 2001. But if, as he has long hinted, Boris intends to run for the Conservative leadership in the event of a Tory defeat in 2015, things become more complicated.

It is inconceivable that he could serve as both Conservative leader and Mayor of London for any significant period of time, leaving him with three options: to avoid standing in 2015, to persuade the party to delay any contest (if Boris stands down a minimum of six months before the end of his term, his deputy takes charge), or to trigger a mayoral by-election. Of these three, despite his pledge to serve a full second term in City Hall, it is the latter that is most likely. But the move would likely do significant damage to his party, which would be accused of disrespecting the mayoralty and would struggle to avoid defeat in the capital. If the polls in 2015 continue to suggest that Boris would outperform any alternative leader, this might be regarded as a price worth paying, but it is one the Tories should start to weigh up now. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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