Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham at the Labour conference in Brighton last year. Photograph: Getty Images.
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HS2 critic Andy Burnham to vote in favour tonight

Shadow health secretary will back the bill, despite previous criticisms, as it only applies to the first phase of the project.

Andy Burnham caused some ripples earlier this year when he refused to rule out voting against High Speed 2 in an interview with me for the NS (for which he was swiftly slapped down by Ed Miliband's office). He said then: "I’ve given no guarantees about supporting it. I’m not talking as a frontbencher here, I’m talking as the MP for Leigh. I will not let my constituents carry on paying through their taxes for the rail network when they don’t have reasonable access to it. It’s as simple as that. If the government’s going to lay new railtrack in my constituency, it can bloody well give us a station."

When I asked how he would respond if the government did not meet his demands, he suggested that Labour (which backs the project) would have to suspend collective responsibility and allow him to vote against the rail project. "If they don’t look again at the depot, I’d have to say to my own whips: 'everyone's constituency is going to be affected differently and everyone’s going to have to account. You can’t have a blanket position because it doesn’t affect everybody equally does it?'"

With this in mind, I asked a spokesman for Burnham whether the shadow health secretary would be voting in favour of HS2 tonight. He confirmed that he would be, but rightly noted that the vote covers the first phase of the scheme, "which only goes as far as Crewe" and therefore does not extend to Burnham's constituency. It is the vote on the second phase of the project (north of Birmingham), for which a separate bill will be tabled, that will be the real test of his position.

After Ed Balls's threat to withdraw support from the project last year failed to lead to outright opposition, it looks increasingly likely that Labour will continue to back the government. Shadow transport secretary Mary Creagh said yesterday: "Labour is supporting HS2 to cut congestion on the railways, better connect our great cities and help deliver a One Nation economic recovery.  HS2 will link and help regenerate our cities in the Midlands and North, get young people into work and help our small businesses to grow.

"The government has finally brought this Bill to Parliament after four years of delays and mismanagement which have caused costs to rise.

"We will continue to hold the government to account for keeping costs down on the project as there can be no blank cheque for this or any other project."

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

How Jim Murphy's mistake cost Labour - and helped make Ruth Davidson

Scottish Labour's former leader's great mistake was to run away from Labour's Scottish referendum, not on it.

The strange revival of Conservative Scotland? Another poll from north of the border, this time from the Times and YouGov, shows the Tories experiencing a revival in Scotland, up to 28 per cent of the vote, enough to net seven extra seats from the SNP.

Adding to the Nationalists’ misery, according to the same poll, they would lose East Dunbartonshire to the Liberal Democrats, reducing their strength in the Commons to a still-formidable 47 seats.

It could be worse than the polls suggest, however. In the elections to the Scottish Parliament last year, parties which backed a No vote in the referendum did better in the first-past-the-post seats than the polls would have suggested – thanks to tactical voting by No voters, who backed whichever party had the best chance of beating the SNP.

The strategic insight of Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, was to to recast her party as the loudest defender of the Union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. She has absorbed large chunks of that vote from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, but, paradoxically, at the Holyrood elections at least, the “Unionist coalition” she assembled helped those parties even though it cost the vote share.

The big thing to watch is not just where the parties of the Union make gains, but where they successfully form strong second-places against whoever the strongest pro-Union party is.

Davidson’s popularity and eye for a good photo opportunity – which came first is an interesting question – mean that the natural benefactor in most places will likely be the Tories.

But it could have been very different. The first politician to hit successfully upon the “last defender of the Union” routine was Ian Murray, the last Labour MP in Scotland, who squeezed both the  Liberal Democrat and Conservative vote in his seat of Edinburgh South.

His then-leader in Scotland, Jim Murphy, had a different idea. He fought the election in 2015 to the SNP’s left, with the slogan of “Whether you’re Yes, or No, the Tories have got to go”.  There were a couple of problems with that approach, as one  former staffer put it: “Firstly, the SNP weren’t going to put the Tories in, and everyone knew it. Secondly, no-one but us wanted to move on [from the referendum]”.

Then again under different leadership, this time under Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour once again fought a campaign explicitly to the left of the SNP, promising to increase taxation to blunt cuts devolved from Westminster, and an agnostic position on the referendum. Dugdale said she’d be open to voting to leave the United Kingdom if Britain left the European Union. Senior Scottish Labour figures flirted with the idea that the party might be neutral in a forthcoming election. Once again, the party tried to move on – but no-one else wanted to move on.

How different things might be if instead of running away from their referendum campaign, Jim Murphy had run towards it in 2015. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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