Ed Miliband at the Labour conference in Brighton last year. Photograph: Getty Images.
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How the left can win in the 5-75-20 society

Social democrats must champion the interests of the newly insecure middle class if they are to govern again. 

For decades, social democrats in western Europe conceived their natural constituency as the "blue-collar" working class: the affluent middle class aligned themselves with Conservative parties. In the intervening decades, social and economic change has transformed that world out of existence. Today, lack of aspiration and insecurity are not only afflicting the "left behind". The disease is spreading to the middle class, manifested in declining real incomes. Parents are struggling to reconcile the pressures of earning and caring. Middle class families fear their children will have less opportunity given booming house prices, escalating university costs, and inadequate pensions. The radicalised working-class which propelled "the forward march of labour" has been declining since the 1970s, as Eric Hobsbawm envisaged: social democrats today should be champions of the ‘new insecure’, transcending traditional class divides.   

Yes, the centre-left is weakened as "traditional" working class supporters drift towards populist parties. Anti-immigration, anti-European sentiment should be heard respectfully, but social democrats must not fight on territory they can never win. The dominant trend in the last two decades has been the emergence of a "5-75-20" society. Roughly 5 per cent at the top - professionals working in finance and those who inherit wealth - enjoying "runaway" rewards as asset prices and returns to wealth have soared. Twenty per cent at the "bottom" of society are at risk of permanent marginalisation. The middle 75 per cent are usually in work or have retirement incomes, but are apprehensive: they not only comprise "blue-collar" employees threatened by outsourcing, but middle class professionals who fear their jobs will be next.

It is the "insecure" middle class who will be the historical agent of change in combating the economic and social cleavages of our age. The insecurity which characterises our societies is being accentuated by structural forces and political choices. This is partly to do with globalisation and trade liberalisation. More than 75 per cent of employment in the OECD is in services. Technological change not only threatens the position of low skilled workers, but professionals too, as Professor Anne Wren has shown. In the 1970s and 1980s, "blue-collar" and low-skilled occupations were vulnerable; today middle class jobs are under threat. The ICT revolution means employment in finance, the law, media and business is readily exported.

No wonder an increasing share of GDP is flowing to capital at the expense of labour. Liberalisation puts downward pressure on market incomes. Collective pay bargaining that traditionally protected middle class living standards is disappearing. Inequalities are spiralling: there is a secular decline in the relative status of middle class households. Median incomes in Germany between 2000 and 2010 lagged behind GDP; in Japan, incomes fell by an average of 1 per cent a year; in the UK, long-term income growth has declined to zero. The shift in the distribution of GDP is not cyclical, it is structural. 

In the meantime, taxation systems are less progressive. As Brian Bell and Steve Machin demonstrate, the "cling on" middle class need collectivised social security to be assured of income adequacy, especially in retirement. As the balance of caring and earning is recalibrated, women face spiralling pay inequalities. Families are under pressure as increasing working hours coincide with rising care costs. Women are forced out of employment, or compelled to accept jobs below their labour market potential.

As a new generation of centre-left politicians gathers in Amsterdam at the Progressive Governance Conference, they must be wary of relapsing into what Tony Judt termed ‘defensive’ social democracy. Bending to populist attacks on globalisation and the European Union is futile and self-defeating.     

The strategic goal is to sustain the political coalition in favour of inclusive systems of social security: the left has to reach out to, and embrace, the new middle class in a world where skilled workers in sectors exposed to global competition are less sympathetic to social spending: as Wren points out, they are least likely to support centre-left parties while fewer middle class professionals occupy public sector jobs. The answer is not to reclaim the lost era of post-war collectivism, but to recast centre-left parties. Five concrete steps should be taken. First, reforms are needed to make taxation systems properly progressive. Policy-makers should focus attention on assets and unearned income – including inheritance and property – which are immobile and hard to evade.

Only a revitalised education and skills system will preserve the promise of opportunity for all. Every government pays lip service to the imperative of lifetime learning. A personal account in which individuals invest in their human capital with state support should generate a culture of active learning ‘from cradle to grave’.

Third, asset ownership must be enlarged: widening the base of employee share ownership and profit sharing; expanding the pool of home owners not by reckless lending to vulnerable households, but extending "part rent, part buy" schemes with major capital investment in housing supply; developing an EU-wide "baby bond" – an asset stake for every child through a combination of government contribution and parental saving.  

Fourthly, championing gender equality is critical to rebuilding support for inclusive social spending. Although industrialised countries have witnessed the rapid entry of women into the labour force, it is an "unfinished revolution". Working women are likely to support investment in public goods from universal childcare to shared parental leave. Public services also need to be world-class, improving outcomes for hard-pressed taxpayers.   

Finally, none of these policies are credible without a strategy for wealth creation, generating surpluses for "social investment". Boosting growth requires structural reforms, not short-term fixes. These include improved access to finance for SMEs and mid-caps, promoting high-tech manufacturing through R&D, and strengthening the HE sector’s contribution to technological innovation. The European Infrastructure Bank should modernise the continent’s productive capabilities.     

The wealthy few are enjoying runaway rewards, but the middle class are feeling the sharp edge of insecurity. To help those most in need, including nearly 2 million families in the UK identified by Oxfam as being pushed further into poverty, social democrats should champion the newly insecure. The next centre-left generation have to embrace the "new" middle class if they are to govern again. 

Patrick Diamond is vice chair of Policy Network. The publication “Making Progressive Politics Work” is available at www.policy-network.net

Photo: Getty
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Unite stewards urge members to back Owen Smith

In a letter to Unite members, the officials have called for a vote for the longshot candidate.

29 Unite officials have broken ranks and thrown their weight behind Owen Smith’s longshot bid for the Labour leadership in an open letter to their members.

The officials serve as stewards, conveners and negotiators in Britain’s aerospace and shipbuilding industries, and are believed in part to be driven by Jeremy Corbyn’s longstanding opposition to the nuclear deterrent and defence spending more generally.

In the letter to Unite members, who are believed to have been signed up in large numbers to vote in the Labour leadership race, the stewards highlight Smith’s support for extra funding in the NHS and his vision for an industrial strategy.

Corbyn was endorsed by Unite, Labour's largest affliated union and the largest trades union in the country, following votes by Unite's ruling executive committee and policy conference. 

Although few expect the intervention to have a decisive role in the Labour leadership, regarded as a formality for Corbyn, the opposition of Unite workers in these industries may prove significant in Len McCluskey’s bid to be re-elected as general secretary of Unite.

 

The full letter is below:

Britain needs a Labour Government to defend jobs, industry and skills and to promote strong trade unions. As convenors and shop stewards in the manufacturing, defence, aerospace and energy sectors we believe that Owen Smith is the best candidate to lead the Labour Party in opposition and in government.

Owen has made clear his support for the industries we work in. He has spelt out his vision for an industrial strategy which supports great British businesses: investing in infrastructure, research and development, skills and training. He has set out ways to back British industry with new procurement rules to protect jobs and contracts from being outsourced to the lowest bidder. He has demanded a seat at the table during the Brexit negotiations to defend trade union and workers’ rights. Defending manufacturing jobs threatened by Brexit must be at the forefront of the negotiations. He has called for the final deal to be put to the British people via a second referendum or at a general election.

But Owen has also talked about the issues which affect our families and our communities. Investing £60 billion extra over 5 years in the NHS funded through new taxes on the wealthiest. Building 300,000 new homes a year over 5 years, half of which should be social housing. Investing in Sure Start schemes by scrapping the charitable status of private schools. That’s why we are backing Owen.

The Labour Party is at a crossroads. We cannot ignore reality – we need to be radical but we also need to be credible – capable of winning the support of the British people. We need an effective Opposition and we need a Labour Government to put policies into practice that will defend our members’ and their families’ interests. That’s why we are backing Owen.

Steve Hibbert, Convenor Rolls Royce, Derby
Howard Turner, Senior Steward, Walter Frank & Sons Limited
Danny Coleman, Branch Secretary, GE Aviation, Wales
Karl Daly, Deputy Convenor, Rolls Royce, Derby
Nigel Stott, Convenor, BASSA, British Airways
John Brough, Works Convenor, Rolls Royce, Barnoldswick
John Bennett, Site Convenor, Babcock Marine, Devonport, Plymouth
Kevin Langford, Mechanical Convenor, Babcock, Devonport, Plymouth
John McAllister, Convenor, Vector Aerospace Helicopter Services
Garry Andrews, Works Convenor, Rolls Royce, Sunderland
Steve Froggatt, Deputy Convenor, Rolls Royce, Derby
Jim McGivern, Convenor, Rolls Royce, Derby
Alan Bird, Chairman & Senior Rep, Rolls Royce, Derby
Raymond Duguid, Convenor, Babcock, Rosyth
Steve Duke, Senior Staff Rep, Rolls Royce, Barnoldswick
Paul Welsh, Works Convenor, Brush Electrical Machines, Loughborough
Bob Holmes, Manual Convenor, BAE Systems, Warton, Lancs
Simon Hemmings, Staff Convenor, Rolls Royce, Derby
Mick Forbes, Works Convenor, GKN, Birmingham
Ian Bestwick, Chief Negotiator, Rolls Royce Submarines, Derby
Mark Barron, Senior Staff Rep, Pallion, Sunderland
Ian Hodgkison, Chief Negotiator, PCO, Rolls Royce
Joe O’Gorman, Convenor, BAE Systems, Maritime Services, Portsmouth
Azza Samms, Manual Workers Convenor, BAE Systems Submarines, Barrow
Dave Thompson, Staff Convenor, BAE Systems Submarines, Barrow
Tim Griffiths, Convenor, BAE Systems Submarines, Barrow
Paul Blake, Convenor, Princess Yachts, Plymouth
Steve Jones, Convenor, Rolls Royce, Bristol
Colin Gosling, Senior Rep, Siemens Traffic Solutions, Poole

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.