A Liberal Democrat poster promoting the debate.
Show Hide image

UKIP have taken more votes from the Lib Dems than most think

Clegg's party has lost more than 500,000 voters to Farage since 2010.

Ahead of the first debate between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage tomorrow, many have predicted that both men will win. This is because, as the Telegraph's Benedict Brogan writes in his column today, "the two parties are not competing for voters – they draw support from different ends of the spectrum." In the case of tomorrow's head-to-head over EU membership, this is undoubtedly true; Clegg is bidding for the "inners" (a group larger than the Lib Dems' current base), with Farage bidding for the "outers". 

But it's worth noting the degree of crossover between current UKIP supporters and former Lib Dems. A recent study by Peter Kellner, for instance, found that more than 500,000 2010 Lib Dem voters have defected to Farage's party, a figure greater than the number who voted Labour (c. 400,000), who voted UKIP (c. 400,000), or who didn't turn out (c. 400,000). Today's YouGov poll shows that 12 per cent of 2010 Lib Dem voters (excluding don't knows and wouldn't votes) currently support UKIP, a share that matches the number of Tory defectors (12 per cent) and exceeds the number of Labour ones (2 per cent). 

That these voters have swung from the most pro-European party to the most anti-European party is less surprising than many think. People in general pay far less attention to policy than most assume and this is especially true of the EU, which does not even make it into the top ten of voters' concerns (it is currently ranked 18th). What explains the swing is UKIP's supplantation of the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" party: the party voters support when they want to kick the Westminster establishment. 

With Clegg now framing the Lib Dems as "a serious party of government", he is largely resigned to loss of most of this group. But the Lib Dem to UKIP defectors show that Clegg and Farage will be competing for some of the same voters tomorrow. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

Donald Tusk is merely calling out Tory hypocrisy on Brexit

And the President of the European Council has the upper hand. 

The pair of numbers that have driven the discussion about our future relationship with the EU since the referendum have been 48 to 52. 

"The majority have spoken", cry the Leavers. "It’s time to tell the EU what we want and get out." However, even as they push for triggering the process early next year, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk’s reply to a letter from Tory MPs, where he blamed British voters for the uncertain futures of expats, is a long overdue reminder that another pair of numbers will, from now on, dominate proceedings.

27 to 1.

For all the media speculation around Brexit in the past few months, over what kind of deal the government will decide to be seek from any future relationship, it is incredible just how little time and thought has been given to the fact that once Article 50 is triggered, we will effectively be negotiating with 27 other partners, not just one.

Of course some countries hold more sway than others, due to their relative economic strength and population, but one of the great equalising achievements of the EU is that all of its member states have a voice. We need look no further than the last minute objections from just one federal entity within Belgium last month over CETA, the huge EU-Canada trade deal, to be reminded how difficult and important it is to build consensus.

Yet the Tories are failing spectacularly to understand this.

During his short trip to Strasbourg last week, David Davis at best ignored, and at worse angered, many of the people he will have to get on-side to secure a deal. Although he did meet Michel Barnier, the senior negotiator for the European Commission, and Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s representative at the future talks, he did not meet any representatives from the key Socialist Group in the European Parliament, nor the Parliament’s President, nor the Chair of its Constitutional Committee which will advise the Parliament on whether to ratify any future Brexit deal.

In parallel, Boris Johnson, to nobody’s surprise any more, continues to blunder from one debacle to the next, the most recent of which was to insult the Italians with glib remarks about prosecco sales.

On his side, Liam Fox caused astonishment by claiming that the EU would have to pay compensation to third countries across the world with which it has trade deals, to compensate them for Britain no longer being part of the EU with which they had signed their agreements!

And now, Theresa May has been embarrassingly rebuffed in her clumsy attempt to strike an early deal directly with Angela Merkel over the future residential status of EU citizens living and working in Britain and UK citizens in Europe. 

When May was campaigning to be Conservative party leader and thus PM, to appeal to the anti-european Tories, she argued that the future status of EU citizens would have to be part of the ongoing negotiations with the EU. Why then, four months later, are Tory MPs so quick to complain and call foul when Merkel and Tusk take the same position as May held in July? 

Because Theresa May has reversed her position. Our EU partners’ position remains the same - no negotiations before Article 50 is triggered and Britain sets out its stall. Merkel has said she can’t and won’t strike a pre-emptive deal.  In any case, she cannot make agreements on behalf of France,Netherlands and Austria, all of who have their own imminent elections to consider, let alone any other EU member. 

The hypocrisy of Tory MPs calling on the European Commission and national governments to end "the anxiety and uncertainty for UK and EU citizens living in one another's territories", while at the same time having caused and fuelled that same anxiety and uncertainty, has been called out by Tusk. 

With such an astounding level of Tory hypocrisy, incompetence and inconsistency, is it any wonder that our future negotiating partners are rapidly losing any residual goodwill towards the UK?

It is beholden on Theresa May’s government to start showing some awareness of the scale of the enormous task ahead, if the UK is to have any hope of striking a Brexit deal that is anything less than disastrous for Britain. The way they are handling this relatively simple issue does not augur well for the far more complex issues, involving difficult choices for Britain, that are looming on the horizon.

Richard Corbett is the Labour MEP for Yorkshire & Humber.