The UK won't become Europe's biggest economy if we slash immigration

The Tories are hailing the UK's projected growth while promoting policies that would strangle it.

Tory MPs are busy hailing what they regard as a late Christmas present: the news that the UK is forecast to become Europe's largest economy by 2030. According to the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), Britain will overtake France by 2018 and Germany within the next two decades, leaving it as the second biggest western economy after the US.

The response from the Conservatives could be summarised as "See? We told you George knows what he's doing!" But here's one point they're conveniently avoiding: Britain won't win the growth race unless it maintains a high rate of immigration. As the CEBR states, "positive demographics with continuing immigration" is the main factor (along with non-membership of the euro) behind the UK's projected success. While Germany's population is forecast to decline sharply over the next few decades, the UK's is expected to rise to 75 million by 2043, making it the biggest country in Europe.

That a significant part of this increase is expected to come through immigration helps explain why Britain will grow strongly. An OECD report last month, for instance, found that migrants make a net contribution of 1.02 per cent of GDP or £16.3bn, since they are younger and more economically active than the population in general. Far from being "benefit tourists", migrants contribute far more in taxes than they receive in welfare payments and public services. Of the 5.5 million people claiming working age benefits in February 2011, just 371,000 (6.4 per cent) were foreign nationals when they first arrived in the UK, meaning only 6.6 per cent of those born abroad receive benefits, compared to 16.6 per cent of UK nationals.

Were immigration to be cut to the level most Tories would like to see (little or none), growth would be dramatically reduced. According to NIESR, a halving of net migration over the period to 2060 would shrink GDP by 11 per cent and GDP per person by 2.7 per cent. This leaves the Tories with two options: they can either welcome immigrants as contributors to the economy, or they can turn them away and accept growth will suffer as a result. What they can't do (at least if they wish to retain any credibility), is to boast of our projected growth while promoting policies that would strangle it.

David Cameron talks to UK Border Agency officials in their control room during a visit to Heathrow Terminal 5. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Brexit campaign publishes private phone numbers of Eurosceptic rivals

Leave.EU hate the EU and hate Vote Leave who also hate the EU. What could go wrong?

Remember Leave.EU? Not to be confused with Vote Leave, which is the pro-Brexit group led by one of the former mayors with Hitler tourettes, or with Grassroots Out, which was the group with the neon green ties, or with UKIP. Even though Grassroots Out, UKIP and Leave.EU are all funded by Arron Banks, a multi-millionaire with interests in the British Virgin Islands who lives in a mansion once owned by the prog rock musician Mike Oldfield. Glad that’s all clear.

Anyway, Leave.EU still exists, even after Vote Leave was designated as the official Leave campaign – spending more of its time attacking the conduct, tactics and key figures of Vote Leave rather than, you know, that big EU thing they’re supposed to hate so much.

One of their main sources of frustration is Vote Leave’s refusal to have UKIP leader Nigel Farage as its representative in any of the EU debates. So, obviously, rather than pressing their case through normal channels, Leave.EU did what any respectable organisation would, and emailed the private phone numbers of senior figures at the BBC and Vote Leave out to its entire mailing list.

Which, needless to say, upset those people. Douglas Carswell sent a message asking for his number to be removed, so of course Leave.EU published that too.

No wonder the Brexiters are so opposed to international cooperation when they can’t even keep the peace on their own side. 

I'm a mole, innit.