Labour reshuffle: Miliband has rewarded the outriders for his project

Tristram Hunt and Gloria De Piero, two notionally "Blairite" figures, distinguished themselves by engaging with Miliband's political and ideological themes.

Ever since his election as Labour leader in 2010, Ed Miliband has often appeared a lonely figure. Few of his original shadow cabinet voted for him and many have seemed reluctant to engage with the defining themes of his leadership such as "responsible capitalism", "predistribution" and "one nation". 

"I am my own outrider," he has often privately remarked with a mixture of pride and regret. But one of the aims of the reshuffle was to ensure that this is no longer the case. Rather than punishing "the Blairites", as the Tories would have it, Miliband rewarded those who have engaged with his political and ideological project. It is notable that both Tristram Hunt (promoted to shadow education secretary) and Gloria De Piero (promoted to shadow minister for women and equalities) contributed chapters to the recent book One Nation: power, hope, community, regarded in the party as the founding text of the Milibandites. While notionally "Blairite" figures (who voted for David in the 2010 leadership contest), they have sought to give greater definition to his intellectual themes. Expect promotions for other contributors such as Dan Jarvis, Rushanara Ali and Kate Green when Miliband reshuffles his junior shadow ministerial team today. 

At the same time, the Labour leader rewarded his original supporters for their loyalty. Rachel Reeves was promoted from shadow chief secretary to the Treasury to shadow work and pensions secretary, Sadiq Khan, his leadership campaign manager, remained shadow justice secretary (the post he has held since 2010 and to which he is committed) and Hilary Benn, whose alleged lethargy had prompted calls for his removal, was left in place as shadow communities secretary. 

One final point worth noting is that "the Blairites" - Stephen Twigg, Liam Byrne and Jim Murphy - all chose to accept demotions, rather than leaving the shadow cabinet and seeking to wield influence on the backbenches. That is an acknowledgement of Miliband's significantly strengthened position. Over the summer he often appeared desperately weak; in office but not in power. But after defining the conference season, he wields new authority. By remaining in the tent, these big beasts have signalled their confidence that Labour can win the next election and that they will serve in Miliband's team. 

Newly appointed Labour shadow cabinet ministers Gloria de Piero, Tristram Hunt and Emma Reynolds take part in a photocall in London yesterday. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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