Why Labour could win in 2015 even if the Tories are more trusted on the economy

In 1997, the Tories enjoyed a 22-point lead over Labour on "managing the economy" but with growth restored, voters decided it was safe to change captain.

The economic recovery has barely begun but David Cameron and George Osborne already appear to be reaping the political benefits. The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows that support for their management of the economy has risen to 40 per cent from 28 per cent last month giving them a 16 point lead over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. 

With growth likely to be purring along at around 2 per cent by 2015 is it game over for Labour? Not necessarily. It's true that economic approval ratings are frequently a reliable long-term indicator of the election result but it's worth noting the exceptions to this rule. Ahead of the 1997 election, as Balls likes to remind his colleagues, Labour trailed the Conservatives by seven points on "managing the economy" and by 22 points among those who said the issue was important, according to MORI's regular tracker. It was only after the party's victory that it established a consistent lead over the Tories. While voters believed the Conservatives would run UK PLC better, they still preferred Labour after years of sleaze and run-down public services. 

Source: Ipsos MORI 

It's possible, then, that Labour could win in 2015 despite not being trusted over the Conservatives on the economy (just as it leads today). Indeed, if growth returns as strongly as the Tories hope, the voters may conclude that it's safe to change captain now the storm has passed (as was the case in 1997). A Miliband government that would invest more heavily in areas such as housing and jobs and ensure that the proceeds of growth are distributed more fairly may be preferred by an electorate weary of small state conservatism. 

But it would be Panglossian for Labour to assume as much. As things stand, while the party retains a slight but consistent poll lead over the Tories, it is still viewed as less economically competent and its leader as less fit to be prime minister. Oppositions have managed to defy one of those handicaps in the past (as I've noted before, the Tories won in 1979 despite Jim Callaghan's 19-point lead over Margaret Thatcher as "the best prime minister") but I know of none that has defied both. 

It is already clear that the Tories' election campaign will focus on maximising both of these advantages. "Do you want David Cameron or Ed Miliband as prime minister?" they will ask, framing the contest as a presidential one, and "do you want to hand the keys back to the people who crashed the car in the first place?" It is a ruthless and simple message of the kind Labour still desperately lacks. 

Ed Miliband and David Cameron during the service to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Coronation of Queen Elizabeth II at Westminster Abbey, on June 4, 2013. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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A glossary of football’s most hackneyed phrases – and what they mean

This is the time of the season when we all get tired. Time to break out the cliches.

This is the time of the season when we all get tired. The players, poor petals, are exhausted. The refs have had enough of being shouted at. The hot-dog sellers are running out of hot dogs. And the TV commentators, bless ’em, are running out of clichés. So, between now and the end, look out for the following tired old phrases, well-worn adjectives and hackneyed descriptions, and do feel sorry for them. They know not what they are doing.

It will go right to the wire. In the case of the Prem, this isn’t even true. Leicester are as good as there. It is only true of the Championship, where three teams – Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton – are on 87 points each, with the fourth team miles away. Now that will go to the wire. The phrase comes from those pre-war reporters in the US who telegraphed their copy. When it didn’t get through, or they’d never filed it, being too lazy or too drunk, they would blame the technology and say, “It’s down to the wire.”

Dead men walking. This is when the pundits decide to hold a seance in the studio, taking advantage of Alan Shearer having sent us all to sleep. It also refers to Pellegrini of Man City and Hiddink of Chelsea. They have known for ages they’re dead parrots, not long for this life, with their successors lined up even while their bodies are still warm. I think a moment of silence is called for. “Dead men walking” refers only to football. Must not be used in connection with other activities, such as media. When someone is sacked on a newspaper, they immediately get sent home on gardening leave, just in case they manage to introduce a spot of subversion into the classified ads, such as: “Five underpants carefully kept; make up; red dungarees; offers considered, Kent.” (The first letters of each word give it away, tee hee.)

World class. The number-one phrase when they can’t think of any other synonyms for what was quite good. As well as goals, you now hear of world-class throw-ins, world-class goal kicks, world-class haircuts
and world-class pies in the press room at half-time, yum yum.

He’s got a hell of a left peg. That’s because he borrowed it from his mam when she was hanging out the washing.

He’s got it in his locker. The fool. Why did he leave his left peg there? No wonder he keeps falling over.

And the sub is stripped off, ready to come on. So it’s naked football now, is it?

Old-fashioned defending. There’s a whole lexicon to describe brutal tackles in which the defender kicks someone up in the air, straight to A&E.

Doing the dirty work/putting himself about/an agricultural tackle/left his calling card. Alternative clichés that every commentator has in his locker for when yet another world-class, manic, nasty, desperate physical assault is committed by a player at Sunderland, Newcastle and Norwich, currently scared shitless about going down and losing their three Bentleys.

Opened up his body. This is when an operation takes place on the field, such as open-heart surgery, to work out whether any Aston Villa player has got one. OK – it is, in fact, one of the weary commentator’s nicer compliments. He can’t actually describe what the striker did, as it was so quick, so clever, and he totally missed it, but he must have done something with his body, surely. Which isn’t even correct, either. You shoot with your feet.

Very much so. This is a period phrase, as popularised by Sir Alf Ramsey. He got it into his head he must talk proper, sound solemn, or at least like a trade union leader of the times, so instead of saying “yes” he would say “very much so”. It’s having a comeback. Listen to Glen Hoddle – I guarantee that between now and the end of the season he’ll say it ten times, whenever someone has interrupted and he wants to get back to the aperçu he was about to share with us.

Most unpredictable Premier season ever. Or so Sky is telling us, on the hour, meaning “since last season”, which was the most unpredictable one since, er, the season before that.

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 28 April 2016 issue of the New Statesman, The new fascism